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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 5:17, 4th and 2, on Justin Herbert — 12.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 5:17, Patriots +12.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:17 · 4th and 2
Justin Herbert
Patriots
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andy Borregales's 35-yard field goal with 0:06 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Andy Borregales35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+33–65 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Patriots’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Patriots 4.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers4.7 ptsright on their number · +3.8 vs their 0.8 pts, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 59 snaps
Patriots9.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.6 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Chargers71.7%leaned — passed early · +13.1 vs their 58.6%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 46 early downs
Patriots62.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Chargers18.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Patriots17.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Chargers33.3%inside their normal wobble · +11.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±19.7 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots33.3%right on their number · −9.7 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chargers22.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±15.1 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots45.5%leaned — sent pressure · +17.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 34%
Tendencies room →Chargers12.5%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots25.0%leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.5%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 28.2% and 1.6 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
17/29, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.2 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
19/31, 159 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-13.3 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Receiving · NE
3/4 for 75 yds, 0 TD
15% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rhamondre Stevenson banked 4.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 17.3 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 4% | 5% | 17/29, 268 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 66 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | +4.8 | 62% | 73% | 15% | 1% | 10 car, 53 yd · 3/4, 75 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 15.4 | +4.0 | 88% | 88% | 19% | 39% | 3/5, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +4.6 | 53% | 73% | 15% | 17% | 4/4, 66 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | −11.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 159 yd · 10 car, 57 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB · Committee Back | 7.1 | −2.7 | 93% | 93% | 10% | 12% | 11 car, 31 yd · 2/3, 20 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +0.5 | 88% | 98% | 13% | 20% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.8 | 45% | 55% | 10% | 6% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.5 | −7.9 | 60% | 66% | 27% | 23% | 3/8, 25 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −3.8 | 77% | 84% | 20% | 22% | 3/6, 20 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 4.6 | −1.0 | 41% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 9 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.7 | 32% | 20% | 10% | 2% | 3/3, 12 yd |
| Tre HarrisWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.3 | 57% | 57% | 10% | 14% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 3.6 | −4.2 | 62% | 88% | 19% | 15% | 2/5, 16 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.7 | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd · 1/1, 20 yd |
| Jack WestoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 41% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 33% | 23% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.5 | 33% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.6 | 59% | 38% | 7% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB | -0.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.
Q3 7:12 · Patriots · 2nd & 10 at LAC 18 · lost 5 · -5.13 EP · −14.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 93 yards from the NE 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers0
Patriots3Chargers3Patriots3Chargers3Patriots6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Chargers3Patriots9Chargers3Patriots15Chargers3Patriots16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 19/31 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −13.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Kimani Vidal | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Omarion Hampton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 13% | +1.1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tarheeb Still | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 17/29 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −0.2 |
| Efton Chism III | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_19_LAC_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 19 — under by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| 10% |
| +2.9 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 27% | −5.0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | −0.5 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +1.0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 20% | −1.3 |
| Tucker Fisk | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Odafe Oweh | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaree Caldwell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.9 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 15% | +4.4 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 15% | +3.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 19% | +6.4 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +2.2 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 19% | −0.1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Jack Westover | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +3.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −2.0 |
| Drake Maye | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −4.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Woodson | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Gibbens | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dell Pettus | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
