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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 3 at New England Patriots 16. Final.
Patriots -3.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Wild Card
New England Patriots 16, Chargers 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:17, 4th and 2, on Justin Herbert — 12.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:17 · 4th and 2
Justin Herbert
Patriots
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
New England Patriots 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 5:17, Patriots +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daiyan HenleyChargersQ1 7:39(7:39) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley (90-T.Tart) at NE 12. 0-D.Henley to NE 10 for 2 yards (81-A.Hooper).
11.8pts
Drake MayeChargersQ3 7:12(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.
11.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Chargers150 of 162 plays carry both curves
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
Swing +12.0 for PatriotsExpected points +3.21 for PatriotsThe model had Chargers 4 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:17LAC +12% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
3rd · 7:12LAC +12% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.
1st · 7:39LAC +12% win prob(7:39) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley (90-T.Tart) at NE 12. 0-D.Henley to NE 10 for 2 yards (81-A.Hooper).
2nd · 0:26NE +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to LAC 17 for 37 yards (2-E.Molden; 29-T.Still).
1st · 1:41NE +9% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams ran ob at LAC 23 for 7 yards.
1st · 5:12NE +8% win prob(5:12) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to 50 for 48 yards (27-R.Mickens).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andy Borregales's 35-yard field goal with 0:06 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:34Andy Borregales·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+30–3
2nd6:55Cameron Dicker·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–3
2nd0:06Andy Borregales·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+33–6
3rd1:38Andy Borregales·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+33–9
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Chargers: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Chargers: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.04Patriots: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Chargers: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.12Patriots: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Patriots’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots25.0%
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteNE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.5%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 28.2% and 1.6 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.
Q3 7:12 · Patriots · 2nd & 10 at LAC 18 · lost 5 · -5.13 EP · −14.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 93 yards from the NE 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
588
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.3476%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.1281%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR20+0.0525%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9-0.2089%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0217%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6540%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.5960%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 48
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Patriots 47
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Chargers 23
2nd quarter45 plays
Chargers0Patriots3
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 5
Chargers3Patriots3
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Patriots 3
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Chargers 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 35
Chargers3Patriots6
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Chargers 17
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Chargers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Patriots 49
Chargers3Patriots9
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Chargers 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chargers 35
4th quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 46
Chargers3Patriots15
Chargers3Patriots16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Chargers 28
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Patriots 42
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Chargers 39
The period ended17 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Patriots 34
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Chargers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
