2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -3.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.

New England Patriots 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 5:17, LAC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:17LAC 0 — NE 0LAC ball · 4th & 2LAC 55%

(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:17LAC +12% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
Q3 · 7:12LAC +12% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.
Q1 · 7:39LAC +12% win prob(7:39) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley (90-T.Tart) at NE 12. 0-D.Henley to NE 10 for 2 yards (81-A.Hooper).
Q2 · 0:26NE +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to LAC 17 for 37 yards (2-E.Molden; 29-T.Still).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 13:34NE Field goal
(13:34) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: LAC 0 — NE 3
Q2 · 6:55LAC Field goal
(6:55) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — NE 3
Q2 · 0:06NE Field goal
(:06) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — NE 6
Q3 · 1:38NE Field goal
(1:38) 36-A.Borregales 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — NE 9
Q4 · 9:52NE Touchdown
(9:52) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 3 — NE 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Patriots
Offensive plays	59	61
Total yards	207	384 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	42%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	5 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

17/29, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

19/31, 159 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.3 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Drake MayeQB

10 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

10 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

3/4 for 75 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kayshon BoutteWR

4/4 for 66 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 31	7	14	2:37	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 20	7	38	4:15	Punt
3	NE	NE 8	2	-1	0:38	Interception
4	LAC	NE 10	4	8	2:18	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 2	14	93	6:40	Field goal +3
6	LAC	LAC 28	12	56	6:40	Field goal +3
7	NE	NE 27	9	28	3:29	Punt
8	LAC	LAC 8	9	15	2:52	Punt
9	NE	NE 46	5	37	0:29	Field goal +3
10	LAC	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
11	LAC	LAC 32	5	3	1:48	Punt
12	NE	NE 19	11	58	6:06	Fumble
13	LAC	LAC 23	5	6	1:56	Punt
14	NE	NE 15	8	64	3:36	Field goal +3
15	LAC	LAC 19	8	14	2:33	Punt
16	NE	NE 20	8	80	4:16	Touchdown +7
17	LAC	LAC 36	5	17	1:37	Fumble
18	NE	LAC 45	4	-5	2:29	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 12	14	50	3:44	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 43	5	16	1:55	End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 93 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	19/31	159	0	0	6	-13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Herbert	10	57	5.7	1.7
Kimani Vidal	11	31	2.8	-2.7
Omarion Hampton	1	-1	-1.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ladd McConkey	3	4	32	13%	1.1
Oronde Gadsden II	3	3	30	10%	2.9
Keenan Allen	3	8	25	27%	-5.0
Kimani Vidal	2	3	20	10%	-0.5
Tre Harris	2	3	20	10%	1.0
Quentin Johnston	3	6	20	20%	-1.3
Tucker Fisk	3	3	12	10%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Daiyan Henley	9	4	0.0	1	1
Tarheeb Still	4	4	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	3	1	0.0	0	0
Teair Tart	3	1	1.0	0	1
Odafe Oweh	4	0	3.0	0	0
Denzel Perryman	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jamaree Caldwell	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tony Jefferson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Deane Leonard	1	1	0.0	0	0
Del'Shawn Phillips	1	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	17/29	268	1	1	5	-0.2
Efton Chism III	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Drake Maye	10	66	6.6	2.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	10	53	5.3	0.9
TreVeyon Henderson	9	27	3.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	4	75	0	15%	4.4
Kayshon Boutte	4	4	66	0	15%	3.5
Hunter Henry	3	5	64	1	19%	6.4
Efton Chism III	1	1	20	0	4%	2.2
Stefon Diggs	2	5	16	0	19%	-0.1
TreVeyon Henderson	1	1	9	0	4%	0.9
Jack Westover	1	1	8	0	4%	1.1
Kyle Williams	1	1	7	0	4%	3.0
DeMario Douglas	1	2	3	0	7%	-2.0
Drake Maye	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6
Austin Hooper	0	2	0	0	7%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Craig Woodson	7	4	0.0	0
Christian Elliss	3	5	0.0	1
Jack Gibbens	1	6	0.0	0
Robert Spillane	2	4	0.0	1
Marcus Jones	6	0	1.0	1
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	2	0.0	0
Dell Pettus	2	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis III	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Barmore	1	2	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
LAC moneyline: +164
NE moneyline: -198

Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 19 — under by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LAC 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Jim Harbaugh vs Mike Vrabel