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2025 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 10, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles34
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina31
Los Angeles Rams 34 at Carolina Panthers 31. Final.
Rams -10 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Wild Card
Los Angeles Rams 34, Panthers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:43, 3rd and 3, on Jalen Coker — 23.8 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:43 · 3rd and 3
Jalen Coker
Panthers
(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
16.4 mph wind
Rams closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:43, Panthers +23.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
23.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyren WilliamsRamsQ4 8:52(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.6pts
Colby ParkinsonRamsQ4 0:43(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Rams at 3 of 13 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.07 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Rams179 of 189 plays carry both curves
(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
Swing +23.8 for PanthersExpected points +2.57 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 25 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:43CAR +24% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
4th · 0:43CAR +24% win prob(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:52CAR +19% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:18LA +16% win prob(4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.
4th · 14:38CAR +14% win prob(14:38) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:04CAR +12% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-K.Mumpfield to CAR 19 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
4th · 1:36
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colby Parkinson's 19-yard touchdown catch with 0:43 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:39Puka Nacua·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–0
4th0:43Colby Parkinson·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+734–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryPanthers
Rams5–2Panthers
413Total yards334
5.8Yards per play5.3
49%Success rate43%
23%Third-down rate42%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
2Explosive plays4
20First downs17
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Rams: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 71 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Panthers’s 63 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Panthers 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Panthers14.0%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 20.9%, 14.5 points below their season mean of 35.4% and 1.5 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:43 · Rams · 1st & 10 at CAR 19 · gained 19 · +2.87 EP · +24.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 81 yards from the CAR 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
50%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2079%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1278%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR23-0.0626%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2042%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.7643%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1760%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 45
Rams6Panthers0
Rams7Panthers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 14
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 32
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Rams 44
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Panthers 40
2nd quarter62 plays
Rams13Panthers0
Rams14Panthers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 5
Rams14Panthers6
Rams14Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Rams 1
Rams17Panthers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Panthers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 16
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Rams17Panthers13
Rams17Panthers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Rams 16
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Panthers 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Rams17Panthers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Rams 28
Rams20Panthers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Panthers 24
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Rams 48
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Panthers 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 39
4th quarter51 plays
Rams20Panthers23
Rams20Panthers24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 3
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams26Panthers24
Rams27Panthers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Panthers 13
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Rams27Panthers30
Rams27Panthers31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Rams33Panthers31
Rams34Panthers31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Panthers 19
The period ended6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
