2025 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 10, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Carolina Panthers

LA -10 no coverO 44.5 ✓16 mph windRams closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:43, CAR +24% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:43LA 27 — CAR 30CAR ball · 3rd & 3LA 61%

(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:43CAR +24% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
Q4 · 0:43CAR +24% win prob(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:52CAR +19% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:18LA +16% win prob(4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:39LA Touchdown
(11:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 7 — CAR 0
Q2 · 12:21LA Touchdown
(12:21) 12-P.Nacua left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 14 — CAR 0
Q2 · 8:55CAR Touchdown
(8:55) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 14 — CAR 7
Q2 · 5:28LA Field goal
(5:28) 92-H.Mevis 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 17 — CAR 7
Q2 · 0:44CAR Touchdown
(:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 17 — CAR 14
Q3 · 7:34CAR Field goal
(7:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: LA 17 — CAR 17
Q3 · 4:21LA Field goal
(4:21) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 20 — CAR 17
Q4 · 14:38CAR Touchdown
(14:38) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 20 — CAR 24
Q4 · 8:52LA Touchdown
(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 27 — CAR 24
Q4 · 2:43CAR Touchdown
(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse]. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 27 — CAR 31
Q4 · 0:43LA Touchdown
(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 34 — CAR 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Panthers
Offensive plays	71	63
Total yards	413 (edge)	334
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	49% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	61%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	3/13	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

24/42, 304 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

5.0 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

21/40, 264 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.1 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

13 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

13 att, 46 yds, 2 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Jalen CokerWR

9/12 for 134 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

10/18 for 111 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 36	5	9	1:34	Turnover on downs
2	LA	CAR 45	5	45	1:51	Touchdown +7
3	CAR	CAR 20	7	13	2:10	Punt
4	LA	LA 7	6	24	3:42	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 19	8	37	4:26	Interception
6	LA	CAR 48	8	48	4:01	Touchdown +7
7	CAR	CAR 35	9	63	3:23	Touchdown +7
8	LA	LA 35	7	47	3:29	Field goal +3
9	CAR	CAR 24	5	8	1:43	Punt
10	LA	LA 12	4	4	0:57	Punt
11	LA	CAR 41	6	32	1:13	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	CAR 19	6	53	0:54	Touchdown +7
13	LA	LA 40	6	14	0:29	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 17	1	0	0:08	End of half
15	LA	LA 35	5	0	0:23	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 13	13	54	7:08	Field goal +3
17	LA	LA 30	10	31	3:12	Field goal +3
18	CAR	CAR 46	5	6	1:31	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 48	3	-3	1:32	Interception
20	CAR	CAR 38	5	59	1:40	Touchdown +7
21	LA	LA 33	13	67	5:47	Touchdown +7
22	CAR	CAR 35	5	2	1:33	Punt
23	LA	LA 19	6	33	3:02	Punt
24	CAR	LA 30	5	30	1:33	Touchdown +7
25	LA	LA 29	9	71	2:01	Touchdown +7
26	CAR	CAR 28	5	0	0:31	Turnover on downs
27	LA	CAR 28	1	0	0:07	End of game

11 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 71 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/42	304	3	1	1	5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	13	57	4.4	0	2.5
Blake Corum	11	45	4.1	0	-1.5
Puka Nacua	3	14	4.7	1	1.7
Matthew Stafford	2	0	0.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	10	18	111	1	43%	3.9
Davante Adams	5	13	72	0	31%	-2.1
Tyler Higbee	2	3	45	0	7%	-0.0
Colby Parkinson	2	3	34	1	7%	3.3
Kyren Williams	2	2	18	1	5%	2.1
Blake Corum	2	2	13	0	5%	-0.9
Konata Mumpfield	1	1	11	0	2%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kam Curl	5	5	0.0	0
Nate Landman	4	6	0.0	1
Quentin Lake	4	2	0.0	2
Emmanuel Forbes	3	3	0.0	0
Kamren Kinchens	2	1	0.0	0
Poona Ford	1	1	1.0	0
Omar Speights	2	0	0.0	0
Josaiah Stewart	1	1	0.0	0
Braden Fiske	2	0	1.0	0
Davante Adams	1	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	21/40	264	1	1	2	-8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	13	46	3.5	2	0.7
Bryce Young	3	24	8.0	1	4.8
Rico Dowdle	5	9	1.8	0	-1.7
Trevor Etienne	1	4	4.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Coker	9	12	134	1	32%	5.6
Tetairoa McMillan	5	7	81	0	19%	4.1
Tommy Tremble	3	3	22	0	8%	0.6
Chuba Hubbard	2	4	13	0	11%	-3.1
Xavier Legette	1	4	8	0	11%	-3.2
Rico Dowdle	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.5
James Mitchell	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.5
Mitchell Evans	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Brycen Tremayne	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Jimmy Horn Jr.	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Christian Rozeboom	5	4	0	1
Claudin Cherelus	4	5	0	0
Nick Scott	4	5	0	0
Derrick Brown	4	1	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	2	3	0	2
Jaycee Horn	2	2	0	1
Chau Smith-Wade	3	1	0	0
Mike Jackson	1	2	1	4
A'Shawn Robinson	2	1	0	0
Bobby Brown III	3	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -10
Closing total: 44.5
LA moneyline: -550
CAR moneyline: +410

Rams closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 65 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LA 6 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Dave Canales

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.