For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Wild Card
It turned at Q4 0:43, 4th and 11, on Jalen Hurts — 38.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:43, 49ers +38.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:43 · 4th and 11
Jalen Hurts
49ers
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
38.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Eagles at 5 of 16 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Eagles at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:59 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Christian McCaffrey4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock Purdy · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+623–198 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryEagles
49ers ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 55 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Eagles’s 72 at 51%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Eagles 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →49ers6.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.7 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 55 snaps
Eagles-12.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.7 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →49ers66.7%leaned — passed early · +11.7 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 45 early downs
Eagles47.1%right on their number · −5.8 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →49ers22.2%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Eagles21.6%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
Eagles66.7%inside their normal wobble · +33.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 49%
Tendencies room →49ers32.4%inside their normal wobble · +9.0 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Eagles30.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 34%
Tendencies room →49ers2.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Eagles5.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
PHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.6%, 11.1 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
18/31, 262 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
4.7 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
20/35, 168 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-3.2 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected
Receiving · SF
6/7 for 111 yds, 1 TD
23% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Demarcus Robinson banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 29.4 | +6.1 | 88% | 92% | 27% | 21% | 15 car, 48 yd · 6/8, 66 yd, 2 TD |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 23.1 | +9.9 | 68% | 78% | 23% | 36% | 6/7, 111 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 19.4 | +1.1 | 92% | 97% | 21% | 29% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 4/7, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/31, 262 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 9 car, 24 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.1 | −9.7 | 85% | 86% | 18% | 0% | 26 car, 106 yd · 3/6, 25 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −0.5 | 92% | 95% | 32% | 13% | 8/11, 70 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | −4.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/35, 168 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 14 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +2.3 | 97% | 97% | 10% | 10% | 1/1, 29 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 45 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 8.9 | +2.0 | 47% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 4/4, 49 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −6.6 | 100% | 100% | 21% | 45% | 3/7, 25 yd |
| Jake TongesTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −2.3 | 73% | 72% | 10% | 14% | 1/3, 14 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 1.9 | −0.3 | 11% | 8% | 0% | — | 4 car, 19 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 29% | 19% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 1.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.3 | 22% | 22% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −2.1 | 17% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 1 car, 3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 52% | 65% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 32% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
Q4 0:43 · Eagles · 4th & 11 at SF 21 · gained nothing · -2.42 EP · −29.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 94 yards from the PHI 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers6
Eagles049ers7Eagles049ers7Eagles6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
49ers7Eagles1249ers7Eagles1349ers10Eagles13How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
49ers10Eagles16How the play was built
A trick play, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
49ers16Eagles1649ers17Eagles16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
49ers17Eagles19How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
49ers23Eagles19How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/31 | 262 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1/1 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 111 | 1 | 23% | +8.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 66 | 2 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garret Wallow | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Kendricks | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deommodore Lenoir |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 20/35 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_19_SF_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +6.5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 13% | +3.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Jake Tonges | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −3.4 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.1 |
| Malik Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marques Sigle | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upton Stout | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 11 | 70 | 0 | 32% | −0.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 21% | +1.8 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 18% | −2.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 21% | −1.5 |
| Darius Cooper | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
