2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -6 upsetU 44.5 ✓22 mph windEagles closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:43, SF +38% win probability on one snap. Played in 22 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:43SF 23 — PHI 19PHI ball · 4th & 11SF 58%

(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:43SF +38% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
Q4 · 2:21PHI +24% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
Q4 · 15:00PHI +21% win prob(15:00) 15-J.Jennings pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 2:59PHI +16% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:54SF Touchdown
(11:54) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-D.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 0
Q1 · 6:20PHI Touchdown
(6:20) (No Huddle) 88-D.Goedert left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 6
Q2 · 6:13PHI Touchdown
(6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 13
Q2 · 2:54SF Field goal
(2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 10 — PHI 13
Q3 · 2:15PHI Field goal
(2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: SF 10 — PHI 16
Q4 · 15:00SF Touchdown
(15:00) 15-J.Jennings pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 17 — PHI 16
Q4 · 8:04PHI Field goal
(8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: SF 17 — PHI 19
Q4 · 2:59SF Touchdown
(2:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 23 — PHI 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Eagles
Offensive plays	55	72
Total yards	364 (edge)	307
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	51% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	65%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	6/10 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18	18
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

18/31, 262 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

4.7 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

20/35, 168 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.2 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

26 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

15 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Demarcus RobinsonWR

6/7 for 111 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

8/11 for 70 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 24	8	76	3:09	Touchdown +7
2	PHI	PHI 37	12	63	5:35	Touchdown +6
3	SF	SF 26	5	7	1:15	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 32	7	20	3:32	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 48	4	3	1:21	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 6	17	99	9:00	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 23	7	59	3:18	Field goal +3
8	PHI	PHI 35	5	6	0:59	Punt
9	SF	SF 23	9	41	1:51	End of half
10	PHI	PHI 30	5	7	1:31	Punt
11	SF	SF 5	8	36	3:07	Interception
12	PHI	PHI 48	5	6	2:05	Punt
13	SF	SF 20	4	1	0:55	Punt
14	PHI	SF 46	10	23	5:11	Field goal +3
15	SF	SF 33	7	67	2:19	Touchdown +7
16	PHI	PHI 35	5	7	1:37	Punt
17	SF	SF 31	3	13	1:20	Interception
18	PHI	PHI 38	8	32	3:55	Field goal +3
19	SF	SF 34	12	61	5:06	Touchdown +6
20	PHI	PHI 35	11	44	2:14	Turnover on downs
21	SF	SF 21	3	0	0:40	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 99 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	18/31	262	2	2	1	4.7
Jauan Jennings	1/1	29	1	0	0	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	15	48	3.2	-2.3
Brock Purdy	9	24	2.7	0.0
Skyy Moore	1	3	3.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demarcus Robinson	6	7	111	1	23%	8.3
Christian McCaffrey	6	8	66	2	27%	6.5
Kyle Juszczyk	4	4	49	0	13%	3.3
Jauan Jennings	1	3	45	0	10%	1.1
Jake Tonges	1	3	14	0	10%	-3.4
George Kittle	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.5
Skyy Moore	0	1	0	0	3%	-5.1
Malik Turner	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.2
Luke Farrell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Garret Wallow	5	6	0.0	1
Eric Kendricks	7	3	0.0	1
Deommodore Lenoir	5	3	0.0	0
Marques Sigle	7	1	0.0	0
Upton Stout	3	2	0.0	1
Ji'Ayir Brown	2	2	0.0	0
Bryce Huff	2	1	0.0	0
Keion White	2	1	1.0	0
Sam Okuayinonu	2	1	0.0	0
CJ West	3	0	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	20/35	168	1	0	1	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	26	106	4.1	0	-3.3
Tank Bigsby	4	19	4.8	0	0.2
Jalen Hurts	5	14	2.8	0	2.3
Dallas Goedert	1	1	1.0	1	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	8	11	70	0	32%	-0.7
Dallas Goedert	4	7	33	1	21%	1.8
Saquon Barkley	3	6	25	0	18%	-2.2
A.J. Brown	3	7	25	0	21%	-1.5
Darius Cooper	1	1	9	0	3%	1.9
Will Shipley	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.8
Jahan Dotson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Reed Blankenship	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Davis	4	2	0.0	0	0
Zack Baun	3	3	0.0	0	0
Nakobe Dean	5	1	0.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Sydney Brown	1	3	0.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Carter	1	2	1.0	0	0
Nolan Smith	2	1	0.0	0	0
Quinyon Mitchell	2	1	0.0	2	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -6
Closing total: 44.5
SF moneyline: +215
PHI moneyline: -265

Eagles closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 22 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: SF 8 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Nick Sirianni

Wind at 22 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.