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2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco23
BY 4final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia19
San Francisco 49ers 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 19. Final.
Eagles -6 upset
The verdict · 2025 Wild Card
San Francisco 49ers 23, Eagles 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:43, 4th and 11, on Jalen Hurts — 38.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:43 · 4th and 11
Jalen Hurts
49ers
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
U 44.5 ✓
Eagles closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:43, 49ers +38.2% win probability on one snap.
38.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian McCaffrey49ersQ4 15:00(15:00) 15-J.Jennings pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
21.2pts
Dallas GoedertEaglesQ4 2:21(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
23.8pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Eagles at 5 of 16 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Eagles at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on 49ers161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
Swing −38.2 for EaglesExpected points −2.42 for EaglesThe model had 49ers 8 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:43SF +38% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
4th · 2:21PHI +24% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
4th · 15:00PHI +21% win prob(15:00) 15-J.Jennings pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 2:59PHI +16% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:04SF +14% win prob(12:04) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 88-J.Tonges INTERCEPTED by 27-Q.Mitchell at PHI 38. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 38 for no gain (88-J.Tonges).
1st · 14:27PHI +13% win prob(14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-D.Robinson to PHI 16 for 61 yards (8-A.Jackson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:59 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:04Jake Elliott·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.Hughlett+317–19
4th2:59Christian McCaffrey·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock Purdyfrom Brock Purdy · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+623–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryEagles
49ers5–1Eagles
364Total yards307
6.6Yards per play4.3
51%Success rate43%
60%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays2
18First downs18
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2049ers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.06Eagles: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0849ers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.02Eagles: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 55 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Eagles’s 72 at 51%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Eagles 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Eagles5.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.6%, 11.1 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
Q4 0:43 · Eagles · 4th & 11 at SF 21 · gained nothing · -2.42 EP · −29.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 94 yards from the PHI 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1156%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.0969%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.4150%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4421%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.0944%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
49ers6Eagles0
49ers7Eagles0
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Eagles 2
49ers7Eagles6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the 49ers 1
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the 49ers 48
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Eagles 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
49ers7Eagles12
49ers7Eagles13
Touchdown18 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the 49ers 9
49ers10Eagles13
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Eagles 17
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 41
The period ended13 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Eagles 44
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 38
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the 49ers 46
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 21
49ers10Eagles16
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the 49ers 23
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Eagles 31
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
A trick play, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
49ers16Eagles16
49ers17Eagles16
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 44
49ers17Eagles19
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the 49ers 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
49ers23Eagles19
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Eagles 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the 49ers 20
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
