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2025 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 17, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
BillsBuffalo30
BY 3final margin
BroncosDenver33
Buffalo Bills 30 at Denver Broncos 33. Final.
Broncos -1.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Divisional Round
Denver Broncos 33, Bills 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 5:24, 2nd and 12, on Bo Nix — 36.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:24 · 2nd and 12
Bo Nix
Broncos
(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.
32°F
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Denver Broncos 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:24, Broncos +36.0% win probability on one snap.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marvin Mims Jr.BroncosQ4 1:01(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play.
22.1pts
Bo NixBroncosOT 6:09(6:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DEN 47 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-97-J.Bosa, Roughing the Passer, declined.
22.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 2 giveaways, against Bills at 5 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 8 of 16 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Bills185 of 203 plays carry both curves
(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.
Swing +36.0 for BroncosExpected points +3.04 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 199
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:24DEN +36% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.
Overtime · 6:09DEN +22% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DEN 47 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-97-J.Bosa, Roughing the Passer, declined.
4th · 1:01DEN +22% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play.
4th · 2:38DEN +21% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 38 for 25 yards (24-C.Bishop). DEN-54-A.Forsyth was injured during the play.
4th · 0:32DEN +21% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 44 for 3 yards. Lateral to 22-R.Davis to DEN 32 for 24 yards (49-A.Singleton; 9-T.Hufanga).
4th · 0:10DEN +19% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 23-yard field goal with 4:46 left in overtime put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:33Wil Lutz·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+30–3
4th4:14Matt Prater·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.Ferguson+327–23
4th1:01Marvin Mims Jr.·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+727–30
4th0:10Matt Prater·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.Ferguson+330–30
Overtime4:46Wil Lutz·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+330–33
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryBroncos
Bills7–2Broncos
449Total yards353
5.8Yards per play5.3
50%Success rate42%
67%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays8
27First downs19
3Sacks taken0
5Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Bills: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Bills: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 78 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Broncos’s 66 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Broncos 6.
NoteBills outgained Broncos 449-353 but lost the turnover battle 5-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's early-down pass rate, 75.5%, sat 19.5 points above their season number of 56.0% — they passed early by 2.8 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Broncos19.6%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.5%, 19.5 points above their season mean of 56.0% and 2.8 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
B.Nix pass+36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.
OT 5:24 · Broncos · 2nd & 12 at BUF 38 · gained nothing · +3.04 EP · +36.0% win probability
183 snaps placed · 20 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 203 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 197. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
203 of 203 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
203
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
48%
Yards
798
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0567%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0878%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.0540%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.0522%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.0844%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0975%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.0980%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
203 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
203 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Bills0Broncos3
Field goal16 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Bills 9
Bills6Broncos3
Bills7Broncos3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Broncos 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Broncos 32
Bills7Broncos9
Bills7Broncos10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Bills 7
Bills10Broncos10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Broncos 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bills10Broncos16
Bills10Broncos17
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bills 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Fumble lost2 plays
Bills10Broncos20
Field goal1 play
3rd quarter37 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Bills10Broncos23
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Bills 10
Bills16Broncos23
Bills17Broncos23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Broncos 10
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Bills 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 26
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bills23Broncos23
Bills24Broncos23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Broncos 14
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 35
Bills27Broncos23
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Broncos 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bills27Broncos29
Bills27Broncos30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Bills 26
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bills30Broncos30
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Broncos 32
The period ended3 plays
Overtime28 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Bills 37
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills30Broncos33
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Bills 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
