2025 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 17, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High

Buffalo Bills

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -1.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Denver Broncos 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:24, DEN +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 5:24BUF 30 — DEN 30DEN ball · 2nd & 12DEN 54%

(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 5:24DEN +36% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.
OT · 6:09DEN +22% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DEN 47 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-97-J.Bosa, Roughing the Passer, declined.
Q4 · 1:01DEN +22% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play.
Q4 · 2:38DEN +21% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to BUF 38 for 25 yards (24-C.Bishop). DEN-54-A.Forsyth was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:33DEN Field goal
(7:33) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: BUF 0 — DEN 3
Q1 · 0:10BUF Touchdown
(:10) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 16-M.Hardman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — DEN 3
Q2 · 9:39DEN Touchdown
(9:39) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 73-F.Crum for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — DEN 10
Q2 · 2:17BUF Field goal
(2:17) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — DEN 10
Q2 · 0:29DEN Touchdown
(:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 17-L.Humphrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-G.Rousseau]. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — DEN 17
Q2 · 0:02DEN Field goal
(:02) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — DEN 20
Q3 · 11:39DEN Field goal
(11:39) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — DEN 23
Q3 · 6:55BUF Touchdown
(6:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — DEN 23
Q4 · 13:29BUF Touchdown
(13:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 24 — DEN 23
Q4 · 4:14BUF Field goal
(4:14) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 27 — DEN 23
Q4 · 1:01DEN Touchdown
(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 27 — DEN 30
Q4 · 0:10BUF Field goal
(:10) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 30 — DEN 30
OT · 4:46DEN Field goal
(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: BUF 30 — DEN 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Broncos
Offensive plays	78	66
Total yards	449 (edge)	353
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	50% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	59%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	10/15 (edge)	8/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	5	2 (edge)

Bills outgained Broncos 449–353 but lost the turnover battle 5–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

25/39, 283 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

5.0 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

26/46, 279 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

3.5 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

24 att, 117 yds, 0 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

12 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Marvin Mims Jr.WR

8/8 for 93 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

6/6 for 83 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 26	15	59	7:31	Field goal +3
2	BUF	BUF 33	14	67	7:24	Touchdown +7
3	DEN	DEN 20	5	0	0:23	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 37	3	32	1:22	Fumble
5	DEN	DEN 31	9	69	3:47	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 17	14	69	7:20	Field goal +3
7	DEN	DEN 30	13	80	1:51	Touchdown +7
8	BUF	BUF 30	2	4	0:20	Fumble
9	DEN	BUF 32	1	0	0:02	Field goal +3
10	BUF	BUF 25	3	-10	0:52	Fumble
11	DEN	BUF 17	4	7	2:33	Field goal +3
12	BUF	BUF 27	11	73	4:46	Touchdown +7
13	DEN	DEN 35	4	5	0:59	Interception
14	BUF	DEN 36	2	-4	0:55	Interception
15	DEN	DEN 38	7	22	2:25	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 15	10	85	4:06	Touchdown +7
17	DEN	DEN 32	5	3	1:34	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 20	13	68	7:39	Field goal +3
19	DEN	DEN 27	10	73	3:16	Touchdown +7
20	BUF	BUF 27	9	36	0:50	Field goal +3
21	DEN	DEN 16	2	0	0:05	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	DEN 28	6	10	1:50	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 7	9	29	5:24	Interception
24	DEN	DEN 20	6	25	3:02	Field goal +3

13 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	25/39	283	3	2	3	5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	24	117	4.9	0	-4.6
Josh Allen	12	66	5.5	0	6.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Kincaid	6	6	83	1	15%	9.1
Khalil Shakir	7	9	75	0	23%	4.6
Ray Davis	2	2	33	0	5%	1.3
Dawson Knox	3	5	32	0	13%	1.1
James Cook	2	3	24	0	8%	0.4
Brandin Cooks	2	6	20	0	15%	0.1
Keon Coleman	1	3	10	1	8%	0.9
Mecole Hardman	1	2	4	1	5%	0.8
Curtis Samuel	1	3	2	0	8%	-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Cole Bishop	7	5	0	0
Cam Lewis	6	4	0	2
Taron Johnson	5	1	0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	1	0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	1	0	0
Darnell Savage	2	1	0	0
Joey Bosa	2	1	0	0
Matt Milano	1	2	0	0
Deone Walker	2	1	1	1
Christian Benford	1	1	0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	26/46	279	3	1	0	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bo Nix	12	29	2.4	-0.3
Jaleel McLaughlin	4	21	5.3	-1.2
RJ Harvey	6	20	3.3	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Mims Jr.	8	8	93	1	19%	8.2
Courtland Sutton	4	9	53	0	21%	0.4
RJ Harvey	5	6	46	0	14%	1.5
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	5	33	1	12%	2.2
Pat Bryant	3	3	32	0	7%	1.8
Tyler Badie	1	2	7	0	5%	-1.7
Evan Engram	1	3	7	0	7%	-6.1
Frank Crum	1	1	7	1	2%	2.0
Nate Adkins	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6
Jaleel McLaughlin	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Adam Prentice	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Adam Trautman	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	10	3	0.0	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	7	3	0.0	0	0
P.J. Locke	6	3	0.0	1	1
Dondrea Tillman	4	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Allen	3	2	0.5	0	0
Malcolm Roach	3	2	1.5	0	0
Riley Moss	3	1	0.0	0	0
Devon Key	4	0	0.0	0	0
Pat Surtain II	2	1	0.0	0	0
Eyioma Uwazurike	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1.5
Closing total: 45.5
BUF moneyline: +100
DEN moneyline: -120

Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 63 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 6 days · DEN 13 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Sean Payton