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Houston Texans 16 at New England Patriots 28. Final.
Patriots -3 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Divisional Round
New England Patriots 28, Texans 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 10:41, 1st and 10, on Marcus Jones — 24.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:41 · 1st and 10
Marcus Jones
Patriots
(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.
New England Patriots 28–16. Biggest swing: Q2 10:41, Patriots +24.0% win probability on one snap.
24.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeMario DouglasPatriotsQ1 9:41(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1pts
Drake MayeTexansQ1 0:58(:58) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 27 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (72-T.Togiai), RECOVERED by HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair at NE 27.
12.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 3 giveaways, against Texans at 6 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 17 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 14 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.19 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.28 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.41 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Texans175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.0 for PatriotsExpected points +8.05 for PatriotsThe model had Texans 4 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:41HOU +24% win prob(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:41NE +12% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:58HOU +12% win prob(:58) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 27 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (72-T.Togiai), RECOVERED by HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair at NE 27.
2nd · 12:57NE +12% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:44HOU +11% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Davis [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 18. 7-C.Davis to NE 18 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
3rd · 8:16HOU +9% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 28 for -7 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson), RECOVERED by HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair at NE 35. 0-A.Al-Shaair to NE 33 for 2 yards (65-G.Bradbury). NE-76-M.Moses was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marcus Jones's 26-yard touchdown with 10:41 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Texans: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.28Patriots: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Texans: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.19Patriots: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Texans: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.38Patriots: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 72 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Patriots 3.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots17.3%
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.0%, 17.2 points below their season mean of 54.2% and 1.9 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:41 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 25 · gained nothing · -8.05 EP · −26.0% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 71 yards from the NE 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
36%
Yards
489
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.3784%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1483%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR12-0.090%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3120%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.150%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.9171%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-1.4686%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 41
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Texans0Patriots6
Texans0Patriots7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Texans 28
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Texans3Patriots7
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Patriots 1
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 22
2nd quarter56 plays
Texans9Patriots7
Texans10Patriots7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 10
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 39
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Texans10Patriots13
Touchdown1 play
Texans10Patriots14
Intercepted5 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 37
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Texans 43
Punt4 plays
Texans10Patriots20
Texans10Patriots21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Texans 7
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Patriots 49
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Texans 49
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 11
Intercepted6 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Texans13Patriots21
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Patriots 7
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 36
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 17
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 15
Texans16Patriots21
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Patriots 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 43
4th quarter47 plays
Texans16Patriots27
Texans16Patriots28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Texans 32
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 27
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Patriots 48
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 14 to the Texans 29
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 47
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3
Closing total
40.5
Texans moneyline
+150
Patriots moneyline
-180
Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 33°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north-east; 0.05 in of precipitation; slight snow.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Texans 6 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Mike Vrabel
1st · 8:47NE +8% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at NE 27 for 42 yards (31-C.Woodson).
2nd · 8:37HOU +8% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 31-C.Woodson at HOU 48. 31-C.Woodson to HOU 48 for no gain (19-X.Hutchinson).
