2025 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 18, 2026 · Gillette Stadium

Houston Texans

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -3 ✓O 40.5 ✓Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.

New England Patriots 28–16. Biggest swing: Q2 10:41, HOU +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:41HOU 10 — NE 13HOU ball · 1st & 10HOU 60%

(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:41HOU +24% win prob(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:41NE +12% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:58HOU +12% win prob(:58) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 27 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (72-T.Togiai), RECOVERED by HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair at NE 27.
Q2 · 12:57NE +12% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:41NE Touchdown
(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — NE 7
Q1 · 5:29HOU Field goal
(5:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — NE 7
Q2 · 12:57HOU Touchdown
(12:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — NE 7
Q2 · 10:41NE Touchdown
(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — NE 14
Q2 · 3:17NE Touchdown
(3:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — NE 21
Q3 · 9:48HOU Field goal
(9:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — NE 21
Q3 · 1:37HOU Field goal
(1:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 16 — NE 21
Q4 · 13:05NE Touchdown
(13:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 16 — NE 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Patriots
Offensive plays	72	62
Total yards	241	250 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	4.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	-0.28 (edge)
Success rate	32%	32% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.43	-0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35 (edge)	-0.38
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	6	3 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/47, 212 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-23.5 expected points added · -20.2% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

16/27, 179 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

16 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

12 att, 25 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Kayshon BoutteWR

3/5 for 75 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Jayden HigginsWR

6/10 for 59 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 35	5	6	1:23	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 26	4	3	0:44	Punt
3	NE	NE 34	7	66	3:18	Touchdown +7
4	HOU	HOU 29	11	68	4:09	Field goal +3
5	NE	NE 22	5	-19	1:45	Punt
6	HOU	NE 47	5	11	2:04	Interception
7	NE	NE 18	2	9	0:44	Fumble
8	HOU	NE 27	7	27	3:02	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 27	8	12	2:10	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 25	1	0	0:10	Defensive touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 26	5	10	1:58	Interception
12	NE	HOU 48	4	2	2:00	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 9	4	0	0:33	Punt
14	NE	NE 44	6	56	2:48	Touchdown +7
15	HOU	HOU 24	5	12	1:18	Interception
16	NE	NE 48	4	3	0:51	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 10	4	1	0:27	Punt
18	NE	HOU 45	4	-1	0:36	Interception
19	HOU	HOU 35	12	58	5:15	Field goal +3
20	NE	NE 31	4	4	1:37	Fumble
21	HOU	NE 33	5	16	2:47	Fumble
22	NE	NE 12	4	3	1:53	Punt
23	HOU	HOU 41	6	5	1:56	Field goal +3
24	NE	NE 29	8	54	3:34	Touchdown +7
25	HOU	HOU 23	5	4	1:01	Punt
26	NE	NE 4	11	44	6:09	Punt
27	HOU	HOU 14	7	7	1:45	Punt
28	NE	NE 28	6	11	2:18	Punt
29	HOU	HOU 28	5	19	0:42	Turnover on downs
30	NE	HOU 47	2	0	1:03	End of game

7 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 68 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	20/47	212	1	4	3	-23.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Woody Marks	14	17	1.2	-10.3
Nick Chubb	4	14	3.5	2.3
C.J. Stroud	2	11	5.5	1.2
Cade Stover	2	6	3.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jayden Higgins	6	10	59	0	22%	1.6
Dalton Schultz	2	2	47	0	4%	4.8
Xavier Hutchinson	4	13	44	0	29%	-17.3
Harrison Bryant	3	6	21	0	13%	-0.5
Christian Kirk	2	6	20	1	13%	-2.7
Woody Marks	2	3	19	0	7%	-0.3
Cade Stover	1	3	2	0	7%	-2.0
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Jaylin Noel	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	5	0.0	0
Tommy Togiai	3	5	0.0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	4	4	0.0	1
Kamari Lassiter	4	1	0.0	3
Calen Bullock	1	4	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	4	0	2.0	0
Jalen Pitre	3	1	0.0	0
Naquan Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	3	0	3.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	16/27	179	3	1	5	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	16	70	4.4	-1.8
TreVeyon Henderson	12	25	2.1	-4.5
Drake Maye	4	10	2.5	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kayshon Boutte	3	5	75	1	19%	6.2
Stefon Diggs	4	6	40	1	23%	2.5
DeMario Douglas	2	2	36	1	8%	4.4
Austin Hooper	1	2	14	0	8%	0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	4	11	0	15%	-2.3
Hunter Henry	1	2	5	0	8%	-1.7
Kyle Williams	0	3	0	0	12%	-3.3
TreVeyon Henderson	1	2	-2	0	8%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Gonzalez	6	3	0.0	0	1
Robert Spillane	2	4	0.0	0	1
Craig Woodson	3	2	0.0	1	3
Anfernee Jennings	2	3	1.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	3	1	0.0	0	1
Brenden Schooler	3	0	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis III	3	0	0.0	2	4
Dell Pettus	0	3	0.0	0	1
Khyiris Tonga	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 40.5
HOU moneyline: +150
NE moneyline: -180

Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: HOU 6 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Mike Vrabel