For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Rams188 of 201 plays carry both curves
(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to CHI 27 for 16 yards (1-J.Johnson).
Swing −26.0 for BearsExpected points −1.88 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 194
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:54CHI +26% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to CHI 27 for 16 yards (1-J.Johnson).
4th · 0:27CHI +23% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
Overtime · 8:04CHI +22% win prob(8:04) 18-C.Williams left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (55-B.Fiske).
Overtime · 13:27LA +20% win prob(13:27) 22-B.Corum left end to LA 34 for -2 yards (31-K.Byard).
Overtime · 3:24CHI +16% win prob(3:24) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
2nd · 1:15CHI +15% win prob(1:15) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game.
Overtime · 6:17
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Mevis's 42-yard field goal with 3:24 left in overtime put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime3:24Harrison Mevis·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBears
Rams1–7Bears
341Total yards417
4.5Yards per play5.1
37%Success rate47%
31%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
20First downs22
4Sacks taken0
0Turnovers3
The read
Bears ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.04Bears: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Rams: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Rams: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.22Bears: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 76 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Bears’s 81 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Bears 3.
NoteBears outgained Rams 417-341 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.0 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bears10.9%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 17.4%, 18.0 points below their season mean of 35.4% and 1.9 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
73Steve AvilaG · Every snap100%78 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%78 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Every snap100%78 snaps
71Warren McClendon Jr.T · Every snap100%78 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Every snap100%78 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
12Puka NacuaWR · Full-time90%70 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Heavy rotation78%61 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation68%53 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation63%49 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Heavy rotation60%47 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
C.Williams pass+28% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
Q4 0:27 · Bears · 4th & 4 at LA 14 · gained 14 · +4.36 EP · +27.8% win probability
186 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 195. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 91 yards from the LA 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
757
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR69+0.0864%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0367%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR19-0.5216%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.4050%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.4129%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Rams 21
Rams6Bears0
Rams7Bears0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Bears 4
The period ended14 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Rams 3
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams7Bears6
Rams7Bears7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Rams 41
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 25
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 42
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Rams 32
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Rams 38
Rams7Bears10
Field goal5 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Rams 29
Rams10Bears10
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Bears 14
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 45
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 4 to the Bears 32
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 31
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 35
Punt4 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 46
4th quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams16Bears10
Rams17Bears10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Bears 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Rams 2
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 2 to the Rams 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
Rams17Bears16
Rams17Bears17
Touchdown9 plays, from midfield to the Rams 14
The period ended3 plays
Overtime28 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Rams 48
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Rams20Bears17
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Bears 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
