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2025 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 18, 2026 · Soldier Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

20

Chicago Bears

17

LA -3.5 no coverU 49.5 ✓19°F

Los Angeles Rams 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:54, CHI +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4CHI ↑LA ↓
OT · 4:54LA 17 — CHI 17LA ball · 3rd & 6LA 53%

(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to CHI 27 for 16 yards (1-J.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 4:54CHI +26% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to CHI 27 for 16 yards (1-J.Johnson).
  2. Q4 · 0:27CHI +23% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
  3. OT · 8:04CHI +22% win prob(8:04) 18-C.Williams left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (55-B.Fiske).
  4. OT · 13:27LA +20% win prob(13:27) 22-B.Corum left end to LA 34 for -2 yards (31-K.Byard).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:24LA Touchdown

    (6:24) 23-K.Williams right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 7 — CHI 0
  2. Q2 · 15:00CHI Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 7 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 1:15CHI Field goal

    (1:15) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: LA 7 — CHI 10
  4. Q2 · 0:03LA Field goal

    (:03) 92-H.Mevis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 10 — CHI 10
  5. Q4 · 8:55LA Touchdown

    (8:55) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 17 — CHI 10
  6. Q4 · 0:27CHI Touchdown

    (:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 17 — CHI 17
  7. OT · 3:24LA Field goal

    (3:24) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 20 — CHI 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsBears
Offensive plays7681
Total yards341417 (edge)
Yards per play4.55.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.04 (edge)-0.04
Success rate37%47% (edge)
Dropback rate61%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.030.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.22
Third downs5/169/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2022 (edge)
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Bears outgained Rams 417–341 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

20/42, 258 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

23/42, 257 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

1.6 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

21 att, 87 yds, 2 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

19 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Colston LovelandTE

4/10 for 56 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -3.4 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

5/10 for 56 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 376422:07Interception
2LALA 1515856:33Touchdown +7
3CHICHI 2014806:25Touchdown +7
4LALA 35561:05Punt
5CHICHI 20451:26Punt
6LALA 247173:30Punt
7CHICHI 189504:28Turnover on downs
8LALA 325-121:32Punt
9CHICHI 385331:44Field goal +3
10LALA 209521:10Field goal +3
11LALA 267193:00Punt
12CHICHI 410284:28Punt
13LALA 24472:02Punt
14CHICHI 234121:27Interception
15LA50400:23Punt
16CHICHI 207253:48Punt
17LALA 915916:02Touchdown +7
18CHICHI 3713565:47Turnover on downs
19LALA 26151:13Punt
20CHI508501:32Touchdown +7
21LALA 27200:18Turnover on downs
22LALA 27572:18Punt
23CHICHI 1610366:03Interception
24LALA 2210543:20Field goal +3

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 91 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford20/422580041.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams21874.122.0
Blake Corum6193.20-2.1
Puka Nacua263.001.9
Jordan Whittington100.00-0.5
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua51056025%1.6
Colby Parkinson3756018%1.7
Jordan Whittington223505%3.1
Kyren Williams4530013%2.7
Tyler Higbee122705%1.1
Davante Adams2624015%-0.2
Terrance Ferguson1519013%-0.8
Konata Mumpfield231108%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kam Curl760.012
Nate Landman550.000
Omar Speights350.002
Quentin Lake250.000
Kamren Kinchens430.001
Byron Young140.000
Braden Fiske220.000
Tyler Davis130.000
Poona Ford310.000
Darious Williams310.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams23/422572301.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift19764.00-3.0
Caleb Williams5408.006.3
Kyle Monangai13362.80-8.1
DJ Moore188.000.8
Luther Burden III100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Colston Loveland41056024%-3.4
DJ Moore5852119%1.6
Rome Odunze2644014%1.2
Kyle Monangai4436010%2.9
Cole Kmet333117%4.5
Luther Burden III3724017%-5.0
Olamide Zaccheaus12905%0.2
Durham Smythe11502%0.2
Theo Benedet01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaquan Brisker861.002
Tremaine Edmunds430.000
Kyler Gordon341.000
D'Marco Jackson520.001
Kevin Byard410.000
C.J. Gardner-Johnson400.001
Gervon Dexter Sr.120.000
Tyrique Stevenson030.002
Andrew Billings120.000
Jaylon Johnson210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -3.5
Closing total
49.5
LA moneyline
-205
CHI moneyline
+170

Rams closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
19°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
LA 8 days · CHI 8 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Ben Johnson