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2025 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 17, 2026 · Lumen Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco6
BY 35final margin
SeahawksSeattle41
San Francisco 49ers 6 at Seattle Seahawks 41. Final.
Seahawks -6.5 ✓O 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks 41, 49ers 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 15:00 — 18.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Seattle Seahawks 41–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Seahawks +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jauan Jennings49ersQ1 14:41(14:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings pushed ob at SF 44 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).
5.1pts
Jake TongesSeahawksQ1 4:24(4:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges to SF 42 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones; 21-D.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (13-E.Jones), RECOVERED by SEA-20-J.Love at SF 43. 20-J.Love to SF 42 for 1 yard (44-K.Juszczyk).
5.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers140 of 151 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 15:0049ers 0 — Seahawks 6SEA ballSEA 71%
49ers 29%Seahawks 71%
18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing +18.1 for SeahawksExpected points +5.53 for SeahawksThe model had 49ers 16 points higher than the market did.play 2
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00SEA +18% win prob18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 4:24SF +5% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges to SF 42 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones; 21-D.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (13-E.Jones), RECOVERED by SEA-20-J.Love at SF 43. 20-J.Love to SF 42 for 1 yard (44-K.Juszczyk).
1st · 14:41SEA +5% win prob(14:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings pushed ob at SF 44 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).
1st · 14:05SEA +3% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges ran ob at SEA 49 for 7 yards.
1st · 5:10SF +3% win prob(5:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 5:55SF +3% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to SF 13 for -2 yards (53-D.Winters).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashid Shaheed's 95-yard return touchdown with 15:00 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00Rashid Shaheed·95-yd return TD95-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+70–7
1st5:10Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+30–10
1st1:55Jaxon Smith-Njigba·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+70–17
2nd12:01Eddy Pineiro·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+33–17
2nd4:37Eddy Pineiro·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+36–17
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.4649ers: −0.46 expected points added per play
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.4849ers: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.28Seahawks: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.4149ers: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.17Seahawks: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 52 at 37%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 0, Seahawks 7.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Seahawks13.2%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -19.3 pts, 12.6 points below their season mean of -6.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
74Spencer BurfordT · Every snap100%60 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Dominick PuniG · Full-time95%57 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time95%57 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time95%57 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time85%51 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
1Ricky PearsallWR · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Rotational48%29 snaps
5Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational40%24 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational40%24 snaps
3Brian RobinsonRB · Rotational25%15 snaps
29Jordan JamesRB · Situational23%14 snaps
9Skyy MooreWR · Situational15%9 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Situational15%9 snaps
75Connor ColbyG · Situational5%3 snaps
62Austen PleasantsT · Situational5%3 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Robert Beal Jr.DESebastian ValdezDTKevin GivensDTIsaac GuerendoRBJi'Ayir BrownSSBrandon ParkerTJordan WatkinsWR
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive
76Grey ZabelG · Every snap100%53 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%53 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Full-time89%47 snaps
61Jalen SundellC · Full-time89%47 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Full-time89%47 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Heavy rotation79%42 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Heavy rotation74%39 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Pineiro kicks+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 15:00 · Seahawks · Kickoff at SF 35 · gained nothing · +5.53 EP · +21.0% win probability
138 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 138 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
48%
Yards
517
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29-0.3741%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.4471%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2335%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.3350%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.1315%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
49ers0Seahawks6
49ers0Seahawks7
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Seahawks 40
49ers0Seahawks10
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the 49ers 11
Fumble lost3 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 31
49ers0Seahawks16
49ers0Seahawks17
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the 49ers 4
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 47
2nd quarter45 plays
49ers3Seahawks17
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 22
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Seahawks 45
49ers6Seahawks17
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the Seahawks 38
49ers6Seahawks23
49ers6Seahawks24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the 49ers 7
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 48
3rd quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Seahawks 44
49ers6Seahawks27
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the 49ers 6
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 42
49ers6Seahawks33
49ers6Seahawks34
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 15
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter32 plays
49ers6Seahawks40
49ers6Seahawks41
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 6
Fumble lost8 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Seahawks 39
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 43
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 23
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -6.5
Closing total
44.5
49ers moneyline
+245
Seahawks moneyline
-305
Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 47 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 48°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
49ers 6 days · Seahawks 14 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Mike Macdonald
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 10:57SEA +3% win prob(10:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 9-K.Walker to SF 45 for 8 yards (43-E.Kendricks; 49-G.Wallow).
1st · 12:08SF +2% win prob(12:08) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to SEA 40 for no gain (91-B.Murphy; 7-U.Nwosu).
