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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 17, 2026 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Divisional Round
It turned at Q1 15:00 — 18.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 41–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Seahawks +18.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashid Shaheed's 95-yard return touchdown with 15:00 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Rashid Shaheed95-yd return TD95-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 52 at 37%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 0, Seahawks 7.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-3.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 60 snaps
Seahawks-19.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.6 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.99× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 85%
Tendencies room →49ers62.2%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 45 early downs
Seahawks35.7%leaned — ran early · −12.1 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 47%
Tendencies room →49ers15.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks21.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 101%
Fourth Down room →49ers75.0%leaned — went for it · +38.7 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.4 vs their 29.4%, and they swing ±19.5 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 49%
Tendencies room →49ers26.3%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Seahawks10.5%leaned — sat back · −14.5 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →49ers15.8%leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Seahawks13.2%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
SEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -19.3 pts, 12.6 points below their season mean of -6.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
15/27, 140 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.5 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
12/17, 124 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.3 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenneth Walker III banked 15.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 35.5 | +15.1 | 62% | 68% | 19% | 3% | 19 car, 116 yd, 3 TD · 3/3, 29 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | −1.2 | 52% | 50% | 22% | 4% | 11 car, 35 yd · 5/6, 39 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | +2.5 | 74% | 79% | 31% | 35% | 5/5, 60 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | +2.4 | 72% | 89% | 25% | 18% | 3/4, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | +0.1 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 12/17, 124 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake TongesTE · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | +0.3 | 48% | 55% | 22% | 27% | 5/6, 59 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +1.6 | 42% | 63% | 13% | 40% | 2 car, 27 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 5.3 | −5.6 | 85% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 140 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 37 yd |
| Jordan JamesRB | 4.5 | +0.2 | 23% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 6 car, 28 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 4.3 | −3.2 | 78% | 82% | 19% | 39% | 2/5, 23 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.1 | 25% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 2.0 | −1.3 | 15% | 11% | 0% | — | 5 car, 20 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.8 | −0.1 | 52% | 34% | 4% | 2% | 1 car, -3 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 1.7 | −1.1 | 25% | 32% | 4% | 2% | 3 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.7 | 57% | 47% | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | 0.0 | 40% | 45% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Velus Jones Jr.RB | 1.0 | −1.5 | 21% | 16% | 0% | — | 6 car, 10 yd |
| Mac JonesQB | 0.9 | −1.0 | 15% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 4 yd · 1 car, 7 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −0.2 | 79% | 84% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Robbie OuztsRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | 19% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 70% | 76% | 7% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 40% | 45% | 7% | 19% | 0/2, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 15:00 · Seahawks · Kickoff at SF 35 · gained nothing · +5.53 EP · +21.0% win probability
138 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 151 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 138 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Seahawks649ers0Seahawks749ers0Seahawks1049ers0Seahawks1649ers0Seahawks1749ers3Seahawks1749ers6Seahawks1749ers6Seahawks2349ers6Seahawks2449ers6Seahawks2749ers6Seahawks3349ers6Seahawks3449ers6Seahawks4049ers6Seahawks41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/27 | 140 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −11.5 |
| Mac Jones | 2/4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Tonges | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 22% | +1.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Winters | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 12/17 | 124 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_20_SF_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 47 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jordan James | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| 22% |
| +2.0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −0.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Jordan James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7% | −5.7 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −3.9 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marques Sigle | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upton Stout | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ West | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 3 | +8.2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | −3.2 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 31% | +5.6 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 19% | +3.2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 25% | +0.2 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −2.0 |
| Robbie Ouzts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Thomas | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyrice Knight | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Boye Mafe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Morris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Pili | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
