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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:40 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 25, 2026 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Conference Championship
It turned at Q4 4:59, 4th and 4, on Matthew Stafford — 20.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 4:59, Seahawks +20.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:59 · 4th and 4
Matthew Stafford
Seahawks
(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 13 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 4 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Rams at 1 of 8 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Rams at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:25 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+713–1710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 57 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 65 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Seahawks 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Rams3.7 ptsright on their number · +0.5 vs their 3.2 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 57 snaps
Seahawks4.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.9 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 77%
Tendencies room →Rams59.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 47 early downs
Seahawks57.7%inside their normal wobble · +9.9 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 61%
Tendencies room →Rams27.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks30.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Rams50.0%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 49.3%, and they swing ±19.3 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 54%
Tendencies room →Rams22.5%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Seahawks13.5%leaned — sat back · −11.6 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 40%
Tendencies room →Rams17.5%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Seahawks8.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
SEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.2 pts, 10.9 points above their season mean of -6.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
22/35, 374 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
16.2 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
25/36, 346 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
18.0 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
10/12 for 153 yds, 1 TD
35% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 9.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.3 | +9.6 | 82% | 93% | 35% | 43% | 10/12, 153 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 26.7 | +8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/36, 346 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 9 yd |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.1 | +1.1 | 63% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 19 car, 62 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 49 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.6 | +4.4 | 78% | 78% | 18% | 15% | 4/6, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +3.5 | 19% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| George HolaniRB · Receiving Back | 6.1 | −2.4 | 34% | 50% | 12% | 3% | 3 car, 4 yd · 3/4, 27 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.5 | 57% | 70% | 9% | 24% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/3, 51 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.8 | 96% | 93% | 9% | 5% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 57% | 35% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.
Q3 12:17 · Seahawks · 4th & 20 at SEA 27 · gained nothing · +6.37 EP · +18.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 87 yards from the LA 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams0
Seahawks6Rams0Seahawks7Rams3Seahawks7Rams3Seahawks10Rams6Seahawks10Rams12Seahawks10Rams13Seahawks10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams13Seahawks16Rams13Seahawks17Rams13Seahawks23Rams13Seahawks24Rams19Seahawks24Rams20Seahawks24Rams20Seahawks30Rams20Seahawks31Rams26Seahawks31Rams27Seahawks31How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/35 | 374 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +16.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Kyren Williams | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 14 | 165 | 1 | 41% | +8.5 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 18% | +6.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Speights | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Landman | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Roger McCreary |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 25/36 | 346 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +18.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_21_LA_SEA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Blake Corum | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 6% | +3.5 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.9 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.8 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darious Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kam Curl | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobie Turner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 62 |
| 3.3 |
| 1 |
| −1.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| George Holani | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 12 | 153 | 1 | 35% | +10.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 12% | +4.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 18% | +4.4 |
| George Holani | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 6% | +1.2 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | −0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Thomas | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Byron Murphy II | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyrice Knight | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riq Woolen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
