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2025 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 25, 2026 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles Rams

27

Seattle SeahawksWinner

31

SEA -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 4:59, LA +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑LA ↓
Q4 · 4:59LA 27 — SEA 31LA ball · 4th & 4SEA 58%

(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:59LA +20% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).
  2. Q3 · 12:17SEA +20% win prob(12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.
  3. Q2 · 0:25SEA +15% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
  4. Q2 · 0:44SEA +12% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to LA 22 for 42 yards (3-K.Curl).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:03SEA Touchdown

    (10:03) 9-K.Walker right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 0 — SEA 7
  2. Q1 · 8:19LA Field goal

    (8:19) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 7
  3. Q1 · 0:58SEA Field goal

    (:58) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 10
  4. Q2 · 12:16LA Field goal

    (12:16) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — SEA 10
  5. Q2 · 2:00LA Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 10
  6. Q2 · 0:25SEA Touchdown

    (:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 17
  7. Q3 · 12:07SEA Touchdown

    (12:07) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 19-J.Bobo for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-K.Turner]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 24
  8. Q3 · 9:45LA Touchdown

    (9:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 20 — SEA 24
  9. Q3 · 4:57SEA Touchdown

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-K.Turner]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 20 — SEA 31
  10. Q3 · 2:13LA Touchdown

    (2:13) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 12-P.Nacua for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 27 — SEA 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsSeahawks
Offensive plays5765
Total yards479 (edge)396
Yards per play8.4 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.32 (edge)0.20
Success rate51% (edge)48%
Dropback rate65%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.48 (edge)0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.25
Third downs1/87/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)13 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)23
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

22/35, 374 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.2 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

25/36, 346 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

19 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Blake CorumRB

9 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

9/14 for 165 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

10/12 for 153 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 31571:27Punt
2SEASEA 198813:36Touchdown +7
3LALA 277471:42Field goal +3
4SEASEA 3513667:21Field goal +3
5LALA 359333:43Field goal +3
6SEASEA 356112:53Punt
7LALA 1313877:23Touchdown +7
8SEASEA 35520:22Punt
9LALA 28450:39Punt
10SEASEA 267790:34Touchdown +7
11LALA 293250:20End of half
12SEASEA 20772:53Punt
13SEALA 172170:05Touchdown +7
14LALA 256752:21Touchdown +7
15SEASEA 3511654:49Touchdown +7
16LALA 137772:46Touchdown +7
17SEASEA 2710244:48Punt
18LALA 1014797:24Turnover on downs
19SEASEA 612444:29Punt
20LALA 73440:25End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 87 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford22/3537430116.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Blake Corum9556.102.0
Kyren Williams10393.90-1.4
Matthew Stafford2168.001.6
Puka Nacua144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua914165141%8.5
Davante Adams4689118%6.8
Colby Parkinson3462012%3.4
Blake Corum332409%1.3
Kyren Williams222216%3.5
Tyler Higbee111203%0.1
Terrance Ferguson01003%-2.8
Ronnie Rivers01003%-0.6
Konata Mumpfield02006%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Omar Speights640.000
Quentin Lake340.001
Roger McCreary330.000
Nate Landman420.001
Cobie Durant410.002
Kam Curl310.000
Darious Williams310.000
Kamren Kinchens211.000
Jared Verse121.000
Kobie Turner200.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold25/3634630318.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III19623.31-1.9
Sam Darnold393.00-1.0
George Holani341.30-1.7
Rashid Shaheed100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba1012153135%10.9
Rashid Shaheed135109%2.2
Kenneth Walker III4449012%4.4
Cooper Kupp4636118%4.4
George Holani3427012%0.6
Jake Bobo121716%1.2
AJ Barner231309%-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones620.000
Devon Witherspoon600.002
Drake Thomas150.000
Byron Murphy II320.000
Nick Emmanwori410.003
Tyrice Knight130.000
Julian Love310.000
Josh Jobe210.000
Eric Saubert120.000
Riq Woolen200.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Closing total
45.5
LA moneyline
+120
SEA moneyline
-142

Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
41°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
LA 7 days · SEA 8 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Mike Macdonald

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.