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2025 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
PatriotsNew England10
BY 3final margin
BroncosDenver7
New England Patriots 10 at Denver Broncos 7. Final.
Patriots -3.5 no cover
The verdict · 2025 Conference Championship
New England Patriots 10, Broncos 7 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 2:59, 3rd and 4, on Jarrett Stidham — 20.4 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:59 · 3rd and 4
Jarrett Stidham
Patriots
(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
U 43.5 ✓
23°F
Patriots closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:59, Patriots +20.4% win probability on one snap.
20.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Wil LutzPatriotsQ4 4:46(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
16.8pts
Christian GonzalezPatriotsQ4 2:18(2:18) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 36. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 36 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
14.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 1 chunk play.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.18 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Patriots152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
Swing −20.4 for BroncosExpected points −5.23 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 16 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:59NE +20% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
4th · 4:46NE +17% win prob(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
4th · 2:18NE +15% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 36. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 36 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
1st · 11:49DEN +12% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to NE 7 for 52 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
4th · 7:01NE +11% win prob(7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 33, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
3rd · 10:22DEN +10% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle ran ob at DEN 17 for 28 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andy Borregales's 23-yard field goal with 5:32 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd5:32Andy Borregales·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+310–7
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryBroncos
Patriots7–1Broncos
209Total yards181
3.4Yards per play3.1
31%Success rate29%
35%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays1
12First downs11
5Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Patriots: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.31Broncos: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Patriots: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.43Broncos: −0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Patriots: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 61 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Broncos’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Broncos 2.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, −15.3 pts, sat 17.3 points below their season number of +2.0 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 3.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos20.7%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.3 pts, 17.3 points below their season mean of 2.0 pts and 3.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Wil Lutz−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 4:46 · Broncos · 4th & 5 at NE 28 · gained nothing · -3.33 EP · −20.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 64 yards from the NE 31 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
30%
Yards
387
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3168%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.0760%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR11-0.390%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.6075%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0050%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3517%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1333%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1220%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 36
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Patriots0Broncos6
Patriots0Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Patriots 6
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 44
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 24
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Broncos 46
2nd quarter52 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 14
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 33
Patriots6Broncos7
Patriots7Broncos7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 18
No good5 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Patriots 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Broncos 45
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Patriots10Broncos7
Field goal18 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Broncos 2
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 29
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Broncos 28
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Broncos 40
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 37
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 47
Punt4 plays
No good4 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Patriots 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 33
The period ended9 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Broncos 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
