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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Conference Championship
It turned at Q2 2:59, 3rd and 4, on Jarrett Stidham — 20.4 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:59, Patriots +20.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:59 · 3rd and 4
Jarrett Stidham
Patriots
(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
20.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 1 chunk play.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.18 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andy Borregales's 23-yard field goal with 5:32 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Andy Borregales23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+310–73 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBroncos
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 61 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Broncos’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Broncos 2.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's pass rate over expected, −15.3 pts, sat 17.3 points below their season number of +2.0 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 3.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −3.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-15.3 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −17.3 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−3.00× that swing) · 61 snaps
Broncos-2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 1.4 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 78%
Tendencies room →Patriots39.5%leaned — ran early · −14.7 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 43 early downs
Broncos53.5%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots17.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Broncos16.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots20.0%inside their normal wobble · −23.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos33.3%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 35.7%, and they swing ±27.2 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Patriots32.4%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos31.0%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 45%
Tendencies room →Patriots21.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos20.7%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.3 pts, 17.3 points below their season mean of 2.0 pts and 3.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
17/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-15.5 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
Passing · NE
10/21, 86 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-10.9 expected points added · -13.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mack Hollins banked 3.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 15.9 | +3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 10/21, 86 yd · 10 car, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | +1.7 | 93% | 97% | 19% | 23% | 3/5, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | +2.3 | 66% | 78% | 22% | 38% | 4/6, 62 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −4.3 | 53% | 46% | 22% | 16% | 13 car, 37 yd · 4/6, 22 yd |
| Jarrett StidhamQB · Starter QB | 7.6 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/31, 133 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 23 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.9 | 61% | 48% | 10% | 17% | 2/2, 51 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.1 | −11.4 | 94% | 97% | 10% | 9% | 25 car, 71 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.7 | −1.5 | 47% | 72% | 30% | 5% | 5/6, 17 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.2 | 33% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.9 | 69% | 72% | 15% | 2% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 2.3 | −2.1 | 17% | 11% | 7% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Alpha Receiver | 1.6 | −8.7 | 62% | 83% | 30% | 57% | 1/6, 6 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −3.1 | 74% | 78% | 11% | 20% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.8 | 16% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 0.5 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler BadieRB | 0.4 | 0.0 | 28% | 41% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | 19% | 16% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 19% | 31% | 5% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 4:46 · Broncos · 4th & 5 at NE 28 · gained nothing · -3.33 EP · −20.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 64 yards from the NE 31 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots0
Broncos6Patriots0Broncos7How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Patriots6Broncos7Patriots7Broncos7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Patriots10Broncos7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 10/21 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 25 | 71 | 2.8 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Drake Maye | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 | +7.7 |
| TreVeyon Henderson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 10% | +5.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 30% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Davis III | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Gibbens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 17/31 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −15.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_21_NE_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 17 — under by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| −2.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15% | −0.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 30% | −2.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.7 |
| DeMario Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 22% | +1.2 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 22% | −4.0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | −0.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 19% | −0.1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11% | −0.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pat Surtain II | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Que Robinson | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
