2025 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High

New England PatriotsWinner

Denver Broncos

NE -3.5 no coverU 43.5 ✓26°FPatriots closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:59, NE +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:59NE 0 — DEN 7DEN ball · 3rd & 4DEN 61%

(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:59NE +20% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
Q4 · 4:46NE +17% win prob(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 · 2:18NE +15% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 36. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 36 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
Q1 · 11:49DEN +12% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to NE 7 for 52 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:24DEN Touchdown
(10:24) 8-J.Stidham pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — DEN 7
Q2 · 2:14NE Touchdown
(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — DEN 7
Q3 · 5:32NE Field goal
(5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 10 — DEN 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Broncos
Offensive plays	61	58
Total yards	209 (edge)	181
Yards per play	3.4 (edge)	3.1
Expected points added / play	-0.14 (edge)	-0.31
Success rate	31% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	48%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.43
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	6/17 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	12 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Jarrett StidhamQB

17/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-15.5 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

10/21, 86 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -13.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

25 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Drake MayeQB

10 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

7.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Marvin Mims Jr.WR

4/6 for 62 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

4/6 for 22 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 35	5	1	1:30	Punt
2	NE	NE 8	4	6	1:30	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 41	6	59	1:41	Touchdown +7
4	NE	NE 33	8	11	3:46	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 23	8	22	4:13	Punt
6	NE	NE 20	4	-5	1:26	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 43	11	43	6:32	Turnover on downs
8	NE	NE 14	7	24	3:32	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 17	6	-5	2:58	Fumble
10	NE	DEN 12	3	12	0:42	Touchdown +7
11	DEN	DEN 35	7	14	0:35	Punt
12	NE	NE 10	4	8	0:47	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 49	5	15	0:28	Missed field goal
14	NE	NE 44	4	16	0:20	Missed field goal
15	NE	NE 31	17	64	9:31	Field goal +3
16	DEN	DEN 23	5	6	1:39	Punt
17	NE	NE 21	8	51	3:39	Missed field goal
18	DEN	DEN 37	4	3	1:00	Punt
19	NE	NE 20	5	10	2:42	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 30	7	17	3:08	Punt
21	NE	NE 8	4	-1	1:26	Punt
22	DEN	NE 33	4	5	2:13	Missed field goal
23	NE	NE 36	4	1	1:37	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 32	2	1	0:54	Interception
25	NE	NE 36	6	12	2:11	End of game

3 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 64 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	10/21	86	0	0	5	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	25	71	2.8	0	-5.0
Drake Maye	10	65	6.5	1	7.7
TreVeyon Henderson	3	5	1.7	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mack Hollins	2	2	51	10%	5.3
Stefon Diggs	5	6	17	30%	-2.9
Hunter Henry	2	3	12	15%	-0.2
Kayshon Boutte	1	6	6	30%	-2.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	0	2	0	10%	-1.7
DeMario Douglas	0	1	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Carlton Davis III	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jack Gibbens	2	4	0.0	0	0
Christian Gonzalez	5	1	1.0	1	1
Marcus Jones	4	2	0.0	0	1
K'Lavon Chaisson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	2	2	1.0	0	0
Craig Woodson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	2	0.0	0	0
Khyiris Tonga	3	0	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jarrett Stidham	17/31	133	1	1	3	-15.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
RJ Harvey	13	37	2.8	-2.0
Jarrett Stidham	4	23	5.8	0.0
Jaleel McLaughlin	4	11	2.8	-0.9
Tyler Badie	1	4	4.0	0.5
Adam Prentice	1	3	3.0	0.1
Pat Bryant	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Mims Jr.	4	6	62	0	22%	1.2
RJ Harvey	4	6	22	0	22%	-4.0
Evan Engram	2	3	19	0	11%	-0.1
Courtland Sutton	3	5	17	1	19%	-0.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	3	5	0	11%	-0.5
Elijah Moore	1	1	4	0	4%	-1.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	2	2	0	7%	-1.3
Pat Bryant	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	4	8	0.0	0
Eyioma Uwazurike	2	5	0.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	3	3	0.0	2
D.J. Jones	2	4	1.5	0
Pat Surtain II	2	3	0.0	1
Zach Allen	3	1	1.0	0
Dondrea Tillman	1	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Roach	2	1	0.5	0
Que Robinson	1	2	1.0	0
Devon Key	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
NE moneyline: -205
DEN moneyline: +170

Patriots closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 17 — under by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 26°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NE 7 days · DEN 8 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Sean Payton