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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q4 12:28, 4th and 11 — 17.5 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 26–14. Biggest swing: Q4 12:28, Cardinals +17.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:28 · 4th and 11
Unnamed on the sheet
Cardinals
(12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Chargers at 2 of 8 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 27-yard field goal with 6:54 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Chad Ryland27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+310–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryChargers
Cardinals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 69 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Chargers’s 51 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, Chargers 3.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-1.5 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 69 snaps
Chargers-2.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their -9.8 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 78%
Tendencies room →Cardinals51.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 56 early downs
Chargers62.5%leaned — passed early · +10.9 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Cardinals12.8%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chargers31.4%leaned — faked the run · +5.1 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 12.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 51%
Tendencies room →Cardinals17.1%leaned — sat back · −10.9 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers23.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 42%
Tendencies room →Cardinals11.4%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers12.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
LAC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.4%, 5.1 points above their season mean of 26.3% and 1.5 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
27/37, 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.0 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
17/27, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.6 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kendrick Bourne banked 3.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.5 | +0.3 | 80% | — | 35% | 31% | 9/13, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.2 | +2.7 | 49% | — | 26% | 36% | 5/7, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | 0.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/37, 277 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 14 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +3.5 | 67% | — | 22% | 14% | 8/8, 75 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | −6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/27, 209 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 29 yd |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · Committee Back | 13.0 | −0.2 | 43% | — | 11% | 2% | 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 9 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | +2.5 | 55% | — | 19% | 10% | 5/5, 58 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | −0.5 | 85% | — | 19% | 29% | 5/7, 56 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −3.9 | 59% | — | 5% | 0% | 17 car, 61 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | +1.1 | 58% | — | 0% | — | 12 car, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +2.4 | 18% | — | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 32 yd |
| Tre HarrisWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −4.7 | 75% | — | 22% | 17% | 3/6, 20 yd |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −0.5 | 79% | — | 8% | 25% | 1/3, 33 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 3.7 | −5.6 | 78% | — | 22% | 14% | 2/6, 17 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 0.9 | −2.5 | 31% | — | 0% | — | 4 car, 9 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 55% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.0 | — | 38% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 18% | — | 4% | 20% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.
Q4 12:28 · Chargers · 4th & 11 at LAC 19 · gained nothing · -4.39 EP · −14.6% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 77 yards from the LAC 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals6
Chargers0Cardinals7Chargers0Cardinals7Chargers6Cardinals7Chargers7How the play was built
Pistol, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Cardinals10Chargers7How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Cardinals13Chargers7Cardinals16Chargers7Cardinals16Chargers13Cardinals16Chargers14Cardinals22Chargers14Cardinals23Chargers14Cardinals26Chargers14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 27/37 | 277 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 13 | 95 | 1 | 35% | +3.8 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gibbens | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Budda Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_ARI_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 14 |
| 2.3 |
| 0 |
| +2.1 |
| 22% |
| +5.8 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 19% | +1.9 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Roy Lopez | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Burke | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Burch | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kitan Crawford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 | −4.6 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 26% | +6.8 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 19% | −0.3 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Tre Harris | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 22% | −3.3 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 22% | −1.1 |
| Derius Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daiyan Henley | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Troy Dye | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaree Caldwell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genesis Smith | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
