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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q4 14:16, 2nd and 10, on T.J. Watt — 17.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 14:16, Steelers +17.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:16 · 2nd and 10
T.J. Watt
Steelers
(14:16) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.32 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.61 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(14:16) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Pat Freiermuth's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:44 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Pat Freiermuth6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+77–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Steelers’s 61 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 1, Steelers 2.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's blitz rate sent, 7.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
PIT's pass rate over expected, +10.6 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-17.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.6 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 57 snaps
Steelers10.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.3 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 86%
Tendencies room →Falcons40.0%right on their number · −7.4 vs their 47.4%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 45 early downs
Steelers61.7%inside their normal wobble · −1.5 vs their 63.2%, and they swing ±2.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 52%
Tendencies room →Falcons11.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.5 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Steelers23.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Steelers33.3%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 55%
Tendencies room →Falcons16.3%leaned — sat back · −10.3 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Steelers7.7%leaned — sat back · −18.7 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 29%
Tendencies room →Falcons14.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −4.1 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Steelers19.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 7.7%, 18.7 points below their season mean of 26.3% and 1.7 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
24/40, 221 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.8 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
12/22, 143 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-15.8 expected points added · -10.4% completion over expected
Receiving · ATL
8/10 for 90 yds, 1 TD
53% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bijan Robinson banked 8.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 31.3 | +8.7 | 77% | — | 53% | 0% | 21 car, 83 yd · 8/10, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.6 | +5.1 | 73% | — | 14% | 5% | 5/5, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 12.5 | −7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/40, 221 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 10.3 | −6.3 | 37% | — | 16% | 0% | 10 car, 46 yd · 5/6, 27 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +4.1 | 88% | — | 8% | 9% | 3/3, 58 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.0 | −8.8 | 96% | — | 27% | 53% | 4/10, 40 yd |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | 5.7 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/22, 143 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −6.5 | 55% | — | 16% | 32% | 3/6, 26 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −0.8 | 98% | — | 21% | 29% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/4, 29 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 4.1 | −6.9 | 58% | — | 14% | 1% | 8 car, 15 yd · 2/5, 6 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.9 | 64% | — | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 3.1 | −0.9 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 31 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.5 | 63% | — | 16% | 69% | 1/3, 19 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 30% | — | 5% | 7% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Nick MuseTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 63% | — | 5% | 35% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zachariah BranchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chris BlairWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kaden WetjenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Eli HeidenreichRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Riley NowakowskiRB | 0.0 | — | 12% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:16) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 14:16 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at ATL 44 · gained nothing · -8.29 EP · −23.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 26 drives, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 56 yards from the PIT 34 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Steelers3How the play was built
Shotgun, a screen, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Falcons6Steelers3Falcons7Steelers3Falcons7Steelers6How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Falcons7Steelers12Falcons7Steelers13Falcons10Steelers13How the play was built
Shotgun, a screen, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Falcons10Steelers19Falcons10Steelers20Falcons13Steelers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 12/22 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −15.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Drake London |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 8 | 10 | 90 | 1 | 53% | −2.1 |
| Drake London | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/40 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −7.8 |
| Cameron Johnston | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_ATL_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| +0.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 16% | −4.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Watts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendal Daniels | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Dorlus | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter Sr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 8% | +3.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 14% | +3.7 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 27% | −5.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 16% | −5.0 |
| Roman Wilson | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 16% | −1.1 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Wilson | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Sawyer | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
