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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q1 10:27, 1st and 10, on Zay Flowers — 12.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 41–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:27, Ravens +12.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:27 · 1st and 10
Zay Flowers
Ravens
(10:27) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to IND 2 for 49 yards (27-J.Walley).
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Ravens at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(10:27) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to IND 2 for 49 yards (27-J.Walley).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Lamar Jackson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 8:25 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryColts
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — total yards.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Colts’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Colts 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-6.6 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 60 snaps
Colts-4.5 ptsright on their number · −1.5 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 77%
Tendencies room →Ravens41.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.7 vs their 49.9%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 51 early downs
Colts61.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 57%
Tendencies room →Ravens34.5%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts17.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.9 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Ravens33.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Colts—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 62%
Tendencies room →Ravens23.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 30.5%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Colts37.9%leaned — sent pressure · +16.2 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 35%
Tendencies room →Ravens26.5%leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Colts10.3%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
IND's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.9%, 16.2 points above their season mean of 21.8% and 1.8 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
17/25, 324 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.3 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Passing · IND
19/31, 166 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-9.6 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 15.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 35.3 | +15.2 | 54% | — | 4% | 0% | 24 car, 144 yd, 3 TD · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.0 | +14.1 | 29% | — | 25% | 34% | 5/6, 150 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.1 | +2.5 | 89% | — | 14% | 0% | 19 car, 98 yd, 2 TD · 3/4, 23 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 25.0 | +5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 324 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +2.7 | 93% | — | 17% | 12% | 3/5, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Alec PierceWR · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | −1.6 | 59% | — | 21% | 54% | 4/6, 61 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | −0.7 | 67% | — | 21% | 12% | 6/6, 32 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 166 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.9 | −1.2 | 72% | — | 25% | 16% | 4/6, 49 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +2.0 | 37% | — | 8% | 25% | 1/2, 53 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −0.4 | 89% | — | 14% | 19% | 2/4, 37 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.8 | −1.1 | 46% | — | 4% | 0% | 6 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.2 | 29% | — | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Matthew HibnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.8 | 34% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −6.2 | 40% | — | 13% | 11% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.7 | 62% | — | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Seth McGowanRB | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 78% | — | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.9 | 19% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 35% | — | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 13-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at IND 32. 0-R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (2-J.Downs).
Q1 7:38 · Colts · 2nd & 12 at IND 28 · gained nothing · -4.81 EP · −16.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 77 yards from the BAL 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens0
Colts6Ravens6Colts6Ravens7Colts6How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Ravens13Colts6Ravens14Colts6Ravens20Colts6Ravens21Colts6Ravens27Colts6Ravens28Colts6Ravens28Colts12Ravens28Colts13Ravens31Colts13Ravens31Colts16Ravens37Colts16Ravens38Colts16Ravens38Colts22Ravens38Colts23Ravens41Colts23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 144 | 6.0 | 3 | +6.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Justice Hill |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 150 | 1 | 25% | +13.1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Malaki Starks | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/31 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_BAL_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 64 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 18 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.4 |
| +3.2 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 25% | +2.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| LaJohntay Wester | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −0.0 |
| Matthew Hibner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −4.0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyon Martin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 2 | +2.2 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 21% | +1.9 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 14% | +3.4 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 21% | −0.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 14% | −5.0 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 17% | −0.6 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.8 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Seth McGowan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Boettcher | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Haulcy | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laiatu Latu | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Walley | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
