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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q2 7:07, 4th and 5 — 16.3 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Chicago Bears 59–37 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:07, Bears +16.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:07 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Bears
(7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bears won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 4 of 9 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against Panthers at +0.18 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bears at 4 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Andre Swift's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:08 left in the 3rd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jalen Coker8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · kick blocked by D.Odeyingbo+652–3715 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bearscategory by categoryPanthers
Bears ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bears 8, Panthers 5.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bears-1.5 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 70 snaps
Panthers2.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 4.8 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 74%
Tendencies room →Bears49.1%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.0%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 55 early downs
Panthers63.5%leaned — passed early · +2.0 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±1.9 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 59%
Tendencies room →Bears34.2%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 33.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Panthers20.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 25.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Bears33.3%leaned — took the kick · −27.3 vs their 60.7%, and they swing ±17.0 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bears32.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 40.5%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Panthers36.8%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 48%
Tendencies room →Bears11.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Panthers7.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 27.3 points below their season mean of 60.7% and 1.6 times their own 17.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
23/37, 361 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
15.5 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
21/29, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
18.6 expected points added · +16.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen Coker banked 17.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 37.3 | +6.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 269 yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 65 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen CokerWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.8 | +17.1 | 84% | — | 26% | 37% | 8/9, 138 yd, 2 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 32.4 | +14.9 | 57% | — | 4% | 1% | 18 car, 124 yd, 3 TD · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 31.4 | +11.3 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 361 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 23.7 | +8.8 | 71% | — | 9% | 0% | 10 car, 49 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | 20.4 | +11.4 | 43% | — | 8% | 3% | 10 car, 100 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 24 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.4 | +2.6 | 60% | — | 35% | 23% | 8/9, 84 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +4.2 | 57% | — | 12% | 17% | 2/3, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 10.5 | −2.4 | 82% | — | 24% | 35% | 5/8, 75 yd |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | +0.9 | 73% | — | 19% | 13% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 63 yd |
| Jonathon BrooksRB | 7.2 | +2.3 | 19% | — | 6% | 9% | 4 car, 14 yd · 1/2, 48 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.9 | 48% | — | 12% | 32% | 2/3, 52 yd |
| Jahdae WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.9 | 45% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −2.4 | 56% | — | 15% | 7% | 3/5, 25 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +1.7 | 35% | — | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | 2.8 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny PickettQB | 2.4 | +1.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −3.8 | 40% | — | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 53% | — | 6% | 6% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 21% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kaden DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Roschon JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Colston LovelandTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.3 | 87% | — | 8% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.
Q2 7:07 · Bears · 4th & 5 at CHI 30 · gained nothing · +4.87 EP · +19.8% win probability
184 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 196 plays across 27 drives, manual charting on 191. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
15 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bears0
Panthers6Bears0Panthers7Bears6Panthers7Bears7Panthers7How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Bears13Panthers7Bears14Panthers7Bears20Panthers7Bears21Panthers7How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Bears21Panthers13Bears21Panthers14Bears21Panthers20Bears21Panthers21Bears24Panthers21How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Three rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Bears24Panthers24How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Bears30Panthers24Bears31Panthers24How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bears31Panthers30Bears31Panthers31Bears37Panthers31Bears38Panthers31Bears44Panthers31Bears45Panthers31Bears51Panthers31Bears52Panthers31Bears52Panthers37Bears58Panthers37Bears59Panthers37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bears at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 21/29 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +18.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 124 | 6.9 | 3 | +9.2 |
| Kyle Monangai | 10 | 100 | 10.0 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Caleb Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 8 | 9 | 84 | 0 | 35% | +6.5 |
| Luther Burden III | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Thieneman | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 23/37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +15.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_CHI_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 96 — over by 48.5.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 65 |
| 6.5 |
| 2 |
| +3.4 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| 19% |
| +1.5 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 12% | +4.0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 12% | +3.6 |
| Kyle Monangai | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Jahdae Walker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Colston Loveland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Lynch | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Muhammad | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Booker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 | +1.5 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 8 | 9 | 138 | 2 | 26% | +12.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 5 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 24% | −2.5 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 1 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 9% | +4.3 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +1.2 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Xavier Legette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Lloyd | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee Hunter | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Lee III | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Princely Umanmielen | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lathan Ransom | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
