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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · EverBank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q1 12:17, 2nd and 5, on Foyesade Oluokun — 9.6 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:17, Jaguars +9.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:17 · 2nd and 5
Foyesade Oluokun
Jaguars
(12:17) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun [52-D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.79 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Browns at 1 of 8 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(12:17) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun [52-D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Parker Washington's 30-yard touchdown catch with 8:18 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Parker Washington30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor LawrenceLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.79 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 49 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 53 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Jaguars 4.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
JAX's play-action rate, 41.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-10.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.8 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 49 snaps
Jaguars-4.7 ptsright on their number · −1.0 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 37% to 69%
Tendencies room →Browns53.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 39 early downs
Jaguars47.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Browns26.7%leaned — faked the run · +7.7 vs their 19.0%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jaguars41.7%leaned — faked the run · +17.4 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 62%
Tendencies room →Browns12.5%leaned — sat back · −10.6 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Jaguars36.7%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Browns12.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Jaguars30.0%leaned — got home · +15.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 1.8 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
18/23, 245 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
19.0 expected points added · +22.3% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
16/22, 205 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.6 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
5/6 for 83 yds, 1 TD
29% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Trevor Lawrence banked 10.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 26.1 | +10.7 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 245 yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.3 | +7.4 | 61% | — | 29% | 46% | 5/6, 83 yd, 1 TD |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 14.0 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 205 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 38 yd |
| Denzel BostonWR · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +6.7 | 92% | — | 18% | 50% | 2/4, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +7.4 | 65% | — | 10% | 13% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +2.8 | 68% | — | 14% | 15% | 2/3, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh CameronWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +4.0 | 33% | — | 10% | 8% | 2/2, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Bhayshul TutenRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | +0.3 | 49% | — | 5% | 0% | 15 car, 66 yd · 1/1, 22 yd |
| KC ConcepcionWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −1.4 | 69% | — | 23% | 28% | 3 car, 15 yd · 4/5, 43 yd |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −1.8 | 65% | — | 9% | 0% | 12 car, 33 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +1.3 | 35% | — | 14% | 20% | 3/3, 40 yd |
| Raheim SandersRB · Receiving Back | 5.6 | +1.3 | 35% | — | 14% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/3, 25 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 4.6 | −1.1 | 63% | — | 18% | 18% | 2/4, 26 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 4.2 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.1 | 82% | — | 14% | 4% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.7 | 39% | — | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 2.3 | −0.9 | 40% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 23 yd |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 67% | — | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dylan SampsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Carsen RyanTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 42% | — | 5% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick MullensQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:17) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun [52-D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
Q1 12:17 · Browns · 2nd & 5 at JAX 28 · gained nothing · -6.36 EP · −17.4% win probability
140 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 148 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 89 yards from the CLE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Browns0
Jaguars6Browns0Jaguars7Browns0Jaguars13Browns0Jaguars14Browns0Jaguars17Browns0Jaguars23Browns0Jaguars24Browns0Jaguars30Browns0Jaguars31Browns3Jaguars31Browns3Jaguars34Browns9Jaguars34Browns10Jaguars34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.7 |
| KC Concepcion |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Boston | 2 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 18% | +5.2 |
| KC Concepcion | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/23 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +19.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_CLE_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 15 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| −1.8 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 18% | −6.1 |
| Raheim Sanders | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 14% | −0.2 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Graham | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Travis Hunter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 5 | 6 | 83 | 1 | 29% | +8.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 10% | +4.7 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 14% | +3.0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 14% | +2.4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Josh Cameron | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Travis Hunter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventrell Miller | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Ransaw | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Branson Combs | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
