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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 5, on Isaiah Likely — 13.0 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 28–20. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Giants +13.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 5
Isaiah Likely
Giants
(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 9 of 10 on third down, against Cowboys at 8 of 11 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 1 chunk play.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.67 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.31 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Isaiah Likely's 15-yard touchdown catch with 0:25 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Isaiah Likely15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jaxson DartLead never changed again+77–14
Javonte Williams17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescott · kick no good, wide right+620–287 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 52 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Giants’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Giants 5.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-0.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 52 snaps
Giants-4.1 ptsright on their number · +1.2 vs their -5.3 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 94%
Tendencies room →Cowboys65.9%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 66.7%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 41 early downs
Giants47.3%right on their number · −6.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 43%
Tendencies room →Cowboys13.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Giants30.3%leaned — faked the run · +9.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Giants—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 87%
Tendencies room →Cowboys27.3%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±1.3 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants16.7%leaned — sat back · −24.8 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±18.0 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 28%
Tendencies room →Cowboys15.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants8.3%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 16.7%, 24.8 points below their season mean of 41.5% and 1.4 times their own 18.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
23/29, 230 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
21.9 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
22/34, 175 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
10.4 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Isaiah Likely banked 10.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Alpha Receiver | 27.8 | +10.1 | 49% | — | 28% | 26% | 8/8, 78 yd, 2 TD |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 26.6 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/29, 230 yd, 3 TD · 11 car, 54 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.2 | +4.1 | 71% | — | 17% | 0% | 12 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.4 | −0.6 | 81% | — | 27% | 37% | 1 car, 0 yd · 5/8, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 14.4 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/34, 175 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Cam SkatteboRB · Committee Back | 14.1 | +2.3 | 61% | — | 0% | — | 18 car, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Receiving Back | 13.8 | +3.2 | 36% | — | 14% | 0% | 6 car, 16 yd · 4/4, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −2.7 | 52% | — | 31% | 42% | 6/9, 69 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −3.1 | 84% | — | 20% | 43% | 3/6, 28 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.2 | 57% | — | 7% | 10% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Malachi FieldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −3.2 | 72% | — | 14% | 29% | 2/4, 25 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.7 | 71% | — | 13% | 10% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.5 | 22% | — | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −3.4 | 76% | — | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.4 | 22% | — | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.5 | 19% | — | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 46% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 14% | — | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 0.7 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.7 | 0.0 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 7 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | −1.7 | 54% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | -0.6 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to DAL 21 for 8 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-28-S.Revel at DAL 19. 28-S.Revel to DAL 16 for -3 yards (78-A.Thomas).
Q2 2:00 · Giants · 2nd & 11 at DAL 29 · gained 8 · -3.18 EP · −10.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 14 drives, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 14 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 85 yards from the DAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys0
Giants6Cowboys0Giants7Cowboys6Giants7Cowboys7Giants7How the play was built
Shotgun, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Cowboys7Giants13Cowboys7Giants14Cowboys7Giants20Cowboys7Giants21Cowboys13Giants21Cowboys14Giants21Cowboys14Giants27Cowboys14Giants28Cowboys20Giants28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/34 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +10.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Emari Demercado |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 27% | +5.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Ezeiruaku | 4 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 23/29 | 230 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +21.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_DAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 48 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| 17% |
| +1.6 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 20% | +0.6 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +0.5 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Caleb Downs | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarvion Overshown | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaishawn Barham | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Lawrence | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Winters | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Jaxson Dart | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 28% | +11.0 |
| Malik Nabers | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 31% | +5.0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +2.4 |
| Malachi Fields | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 14% | +3.5 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arvell Reese | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chauncey Golston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Nubin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome II | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Reader | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
