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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 14, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q3 12:53, 4th and 1, on Kenneth Walker III — 14.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:53, Chiefs +14.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:53 · 4th and 1
Kenneth Walker III
Chiefs
(12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 1 chunk play.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashee Rice's 13-yard touchdown catch with 1:46 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Rashee Rice13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 46 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Chiefs 6.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos1.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.0 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±3.1 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 46 snaps
Chiefs0.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 74%
Tendencies room →Broncos63.6%leaned — passed early · +10.4 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 33 early downs
Chiefs47.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 53.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 56%
Tendencies room →Broncos18.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −3.6 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±3.2 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs30.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Broncos0.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs66.7%inside their normal wobble · +18.8 vs their 47.9%, and they swing ±21.9 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 60%
Tendencies room →Broncos45.5%inside their normal wobble · +9.2 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs30.3%inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 35%
Tendencies room →Broncos15.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs21.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
DEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 1.9 pts, 5.0 points above their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 3.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
15/27, 184 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-2.3 expected points added · -11.9% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
17/28, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.4 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenneth Walker III banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Bell Cow Back | 34.1 | +8.0 | 68% | — | 24% | 0% | 23 car, 173 yd, 1 TD · 3/6, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | +5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 184 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +6.6 | 63% | — | 19% | 17% | 4/5, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | +2.1 | 71% | — | 20% | 25% | 3/5, 71 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +6.9 | 83% | — | 8% | 5% | 2/2, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Emmett JohnsonRB | 8.8 | +2.5 | 36% | — | 8% | 0% | 8 car, 24 yd · 2/2, 44 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | −0.6 | 59% | — | 22% | 24% | 4/6, 42 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Receiving Back | 8.1 | +1.1 | 51% | — | 15% | 0% | 3 car, 18 yd · 4/4, 23 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 5.4 | −2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 131 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 2 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −4.6 | 77% | — | 24% | 36% | 3/6, 18 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | 3.6 | −0.3 | 43% | — | 0% | — | 8 car, 36 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 3.1 | −4.2 | 76% | — | 19% | 38% | 2/5, 11 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.8 | 37% | — | 11% | 0% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Jake BriningstoolTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 19% | — | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 55% | — | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.8 | 75% | — | 11% | 13% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −1.1 | 33% | — | 4% | 30% | 1 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jonah ColemanRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben VanSumerenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen RoyalsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cyrus AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 68% | — | 4% | 31% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:53 · Chiefs · 4th & 1 at KC 40 · gained 60 · +6.61 EP · +11.3% win probability
150 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 24 drives, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Chiefs6Broncos0Chiefs7Broncos6Chiefs7Broncos7Chiefs7Broncos7Chiefs13Broncos7Chiefs14How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Ten in the box.
Broncos7Chiefs20Broncos7Chiefs21Broncos10Chiefs21Broncos10Chiefs24Broncos10Chiefs30Broncos10Chiefs31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 17/28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −14.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Troy Franklin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 19% | +4.1 |
| Pat Bryant | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_DEN_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 41 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +2.0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 15% | −0.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 19% | −4.8 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −0.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11% | −4.3 |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.7 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Zach Allen | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Que Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 173 | 7.5 | 1 | +10.1 |
| Emmett Johnson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 20% | +5.0 |
| Emmett Johnson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8% | +4.3 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 24% | +0.6 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 24% | −8.4 |
| Jake Briningstool | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Cyrus Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L'Jarius Sneed | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaden Hicks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Nwankpa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| R Mason Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben VanSumeren | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
