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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q1 7:54, 2nd and 10, on Christian Watson — 17.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 39–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:54, Packers +17.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:54 · 2nd and 10
Christian Watson
Packers
(7:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Vikings at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 12 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(7:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Aaron Jones's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:42 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Christian Watson81-yd TD catch81-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Love · kick no good, wide right+69–011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 67 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Vikings’s 59 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Vikings 6.
Packers outgained Vikings 419-244 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIN's sack or hit rate, 32.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
MIN's blitz rate sent, 80.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 34.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-1.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 67 snaps
Vikings-8.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −4.6 vs their -4.0 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 87%
Tendencies room →Packers64.2%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 60.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 53 early downs
Vikings40.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 45.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 50%
Tendencies room →Packers19.6%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Vikings29.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 30.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Packers66.7%leaned — went for it · +22.5 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±22.3 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 96%
Tendencies room →Packers45.2%inside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings80.4%leaned — sent pressure · +11.1 vs their 69.4%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 40%
Tendencies room →Packers16.1%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings32.6%leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.6%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 1.5 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
21/42, 387 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-2.7 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
12/19, 133 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
5.0 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
6/8 for 147 yds, 2 TD
20% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Christian Watson banked 16.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 32.7 | +16.1 | 76% | — | 20% | 28% | 6/8, 147 yd, 2 TD |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.2 | +13.5 | 92% | — | 39% | 47% | 8/9, 92 yd, 2 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 19.5 | −2.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/42, 387 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +8.3 | 83% | — | 0% | — | 12/19, 133 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, -1 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | −6.5 | 82% | — | 30% | 30% | 6/12, 95 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | +4.7 | 66% | — | 22% | 10% | 4/5, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan MasonRB · Committee Back | 11.9 | +1.9 | 45% | — | 0% | — | 15 car, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | +0.4 | 46% | — | 4% | 2% | 12 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | −1.2 | 66% | — | 15% | 18% | 3/6, 65 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +2.0 | 47% | — | 8% | 5% | 2/3, 50 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −6.4 | 57% | — | 18% | 11% | 3/7, 20 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.5 | 65% | — | 17% | 8% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| MarShawn LloydRB · Bell Cow Back | 3.7 | −5.4 | 44% | — | 3% | 4% | 13 car, 37 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 2.9 | −2.3 | 56% | — | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 29 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.9 | 12% | — | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 1.1 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 83% | — | 9% | 16% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 48% | — | 4% | 17% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB | -0.4 | −3.3 | 17% | — | 0% | — | 3/5, 18 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 9 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 51-B.Cashman). FUMBLES (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-43-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. 43-A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (50-Z.Bako-Bewele).
Q4 5:01 · Packers · 3rd & 17 at GB 23 · lost 15 · -5.84 EP · −15.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 85 yards from the MIN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers3
Vikings0How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers9Vikings0Packers9Vikings3Packers12Vikings3How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Packers12Vikings9Packers12Vikings10Packers18Vikings10Packers19Vikings10Packers22Vikings10Packers22Vikings16Packers22Vikings17How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Under center, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Five in the box.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Packers22Vikings23Packers22Vikings25How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, six in the box.
Packers22Vikings31Packers22Vikings32Packers22Vikings38Packers22Vikings39Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 4 | −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Chris Brooks | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Jordan Love |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 6 | 8 | 147 | 2 | 20% | +6.9 |
| Matthew Golden | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Williams | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 12/19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +5.0 |
| Kyler Murray | 3/5 | 18 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_GB_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 61 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −4.4 |
| 30% |
| +0.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 15% | +1.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 8% | +4.0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 18% | −1.2 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Chris Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Jonathan Ford | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Cox Jr. | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barryn Sorrell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 | −3.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 9 | 92 | 2 | 39% | +12.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 22% | +3.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 17% | −0.0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −4.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Murphy | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Blake Cashman | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace Jr. | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Drake Rodriguez | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
