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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q3 12:52, 2nd and 10, on Malik Willis — 10.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Las Vegas Raiders 27–13. Biggest swing: Q3 12:52, Dolphins +10.6% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:52 · 2nd and 10
Malik Willis
Dolphins
(12:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — -0.04 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(12:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jack Bech's 15-yard touchdown catch with 1:38 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 50 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Raiders’s 64 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Raiders 4.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 9 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-0.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.3 vs their -11.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 50 snaps
Raiders-6.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −3.9 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±2.4 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 79%
Tendencies room →Dolphins69.2%leaned — passed early · +16.7 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 39 early downs
Raiders45.1%leaned — ran early · −10.3 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Dolphins13.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.9 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders29.0%leaned — faked the run · +6.1 vs their 22.9%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 87%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Raiders33.3%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 34.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins32.3%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±15.2 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Raiders16.2%leaned — sat back · −10.8 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 35%
Tendencies room →Dolphins6.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Raiders24.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
LV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.4 pts, 3.9 points below their season mean of -2.5 pts and 1.7 times their own 2.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
15/27, 220 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.5 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected
Passing · LV
21/30, 160 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
0.4 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Receiving · MIA
3/8 for 53 yds, 0 TD
30% of team targets · -3.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ashton Jeanty banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 32.7 | +8.3 | 74% | — | 21% | 8% | 23 car, 102 yd · 6/6, 45 yd, 2 TD |
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 16.7 | +3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 220 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Caleb DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +2.9 | 91% | — | 26% | 31% | 5/7, 94 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 160 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, -6 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.3 | +4.2 | 40% | — | 14% | 14% | 3/4, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.6 | −1.0 | 86% | — | 19% | 1% | 11 car, 36 yd · 4/5, 30 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | −3.7 | 81% | — | 24% | 12% | 6/7, 32 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.3 | −6.4 | 98% | — | 30% | 44% | 3/8, 53 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −2.6 | 60% | — | 17% | 28% | 3/5, 27 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −2.4 | 71% | — | 14% | 22% | 2/4, 27 yd |
| Mike Washington Jr.RB | 4.1 | −0.1 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 7 car, 41 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.9 | 77% | — | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Chris BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.5 | 52% | — | 7% | 14% | 1/2, 25 yd |
| Malik BensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −3.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.1 | −0.2 | 47% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 16% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Will KacmarekTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 25% | — | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 29% | — | 7% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | -0.1 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:52 · Dolphins · 2nd & 10 at LV 14 · gained 14 · +2.31 EP · +7.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 93 yards from the LV 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Raiders6Dolphins0Raiders7Dolphins0Raiders10Dolphins3Raiders10Dolphins3Raiders16Dolphins3Raiders17Dolphins6Raiders17Dolphins12Raiders17Dolphins13Raiders17Dolphins13Raiders23Dolphins13Raiders24Dolphins13Raiders27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 15/27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 5 | −5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 1 | +1.0 |
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Jaylen Wright |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Douglas | 5 | 7 | 94 | 0 | 26% | +1.6 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Rodriguez | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordyn Brooks |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/30 | 160 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_MIA_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 40 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.9 |
| 30% |
| −3.2 |
| De'Von Achane | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 19% | +1.4 |
| Chris Bell | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −3.0 |
| Will Kacmarek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 6 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zayne Anderson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joshua Uche | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Marshall Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Taaffe | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Julius Brents | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | -6 | -1.2 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Malik Benson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 21% | +2.8 |
| Michael Mayer | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 24% | +0.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 14% | +3.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 17% | −1.6 |
| Jack Bech | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 14% | −3.0 |
| Malik Benson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Cody White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treydan Stukes | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tonka Hemingway | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Foley Fatukasi | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody White | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
