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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Wed, Sep 9, 2026 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q4 0:26, 3rd and 5, on Josh Jobe — 56.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, Seahawks +56.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:26 · 3rd and 5
Josh Jobe
Seahawks
(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.
56.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Patriots at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Myers's 26-yard field goal with 5:53 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jason Myers26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+310–135 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 47 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Seahawks 3.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 67 snaps
Seahawks-5.5 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →Patriots53.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 49 early downs
Seahawks51.4%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±13.5 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 55%
Tendencies room →Patriots21.4%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks40.7%leaned — faked the run · +11.2 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -72% to 149%
Fourth Down room →Patriots25.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Seahawks20.0%right on their number · −18.3 vs their 38.3%, and they swing ±43.3 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 71%
Tendencies room →Patriots44.4%right on their number · +5.0 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Seahawks26.2%leaned — sent pressure · +4.9 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Patriots22.2%leaned — got home · +5.3 vs their 16.9%, and they swing ±3.6 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Seahawks14.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
SEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 7.3 points below their season mean of 21.6% and 1.5 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
16/22, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.4 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Passing · NE
23/33, 178 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-4.6 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
8/11 for 122 yds, 1 TD
46% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 7.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.2 | +7.6 | 90% | — | 46% | 49% | 8/11, 122 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 14.5 | −3.0 | 85% | — | 19% | 0% | 18 car, 51 yd · 5/6, 44 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 12.8 | +4.1 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 187 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 13 yd |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | −7.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 178 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 7 car, 47 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +0.6 | 70% | — | 16% | 30% | 4/5, 51 yd |
| Jadarian PriceRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | +0.1 | 48% | — | 8% | 0% | 10 car, 52 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Eli RaridonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.0 | 54% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Featured Receiver | 7.0 | −2.9 | 62% | — | 23% | 21% | 5/7, 20 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.7 | 76% | — | 10% | 6% | 3/3, 26 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −0.1 | 44% | — | 13% | 9% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +1.1 | 78% | — | 13% | 32% | 2/3, 35 yd |
| Brady RussellRB | 4.0 | +0.9 | 34% | — | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.5 | 88% | — | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Lan LarisonRB | 2.9 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| George HolaniRB | 2.9 | −3.5 | 46% | — | 4% | 4% | 8 car, 29 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −2.8 | 66% | — | 13% | 12% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Corey KinerRB | 1.1 | −1.8 | 11% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 11 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB | 0.5 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 0.3 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.3 | 56% | — | 10% | 37% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Montorie Foster JrWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.
Q4 0:26 · Patriots · 3rd & 5 at SEA 16 · gained nothing · -2.67 EP · −42.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 77 yards from the NE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Seahawks0Patriots7Seahawks0Patriots10Seahawks0Patriots10Seahawks3How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots10Seahawks9Patriots10Seahawks10How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Patriots10Seahawks13How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 23/33 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 3 | −4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 | −8.1 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 | +7.3 |
| Corey Kiner |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 16/22 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.4 |
| Sam Darnold | 1/2 | 13 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_NE_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 23 — under by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 1.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.0 |
| 19% |
| −0.1 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 23% | +0.5 |
| Lan Larison | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Eli Raridon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −6.0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Jacas | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Namdi Obiazor | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dell Pettus | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 | +1.0 |
| George Holani | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 11 | 122 | 1 | 46% | +7.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 13% | +1.7 |
| Brady Russell | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Jadarian Price | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13% | −2.9 |
| George Holani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Thomas | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Jobe | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nehemiah Pritchett | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Williams | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chazz Surratt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
