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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Detroit Lions 31, Saints 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 1:38, 2nd and 8, on Noah Fant — 55.2 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Lions closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Detroit Lions 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:38, Lions +55.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:38 · 2nd and 8
Noah Fant
Lions
(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
55.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris OlaveSaintsOT 3:13(3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to NO 47 for 20 yards (29-A.Maddox). ** Injury Update: DET-23-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.
32.4pts
Bryce LanceLionsOT 1:34TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 18-B.Lance is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
32.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 17 on third down, against Lions at 5 of 13 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Saints206 of 218 plays carry both curves
(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +55.2 for LionsExpected points −2.28 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 215
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:38NO +55% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 3:13DET +32% win prob(3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to NO 47 for 20 yards (29-A.Maddox). ** Injury Update: DET-23-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.
Overtime · 1:34NO +32% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 18-B.Lance is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Overtime · 5:04NO +31% win prob39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Overtime · 1:53DET +22% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at DET 8 for 27 yards (12-T.Harper).
4th · 0:02NO +14% win prob(:02) 10-D.Carlson 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 4-yard touchdown catch with 5:07 left in overtime put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Saints ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Saints: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.00Lions: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.01Lions: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Saints: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.01Lions: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 86 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Lions’s 73 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Lions 5.
NoteSaints outgained Lions 469-369 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Lions14.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 19.5%, 7.0 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 1.3 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Kelvin Banks Jr.T · Every snap100%90 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%90 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%90 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%90 snaps
6Tyler ShoughQB · Every snap100%90 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%90 snaps
14Devaughn VeleWR · Full-time91%82 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Full-time86%77 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Full-time84%76 snaps
18Bryce LanceWR · Heavy rotation69%62 snaps
3Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation59%53 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Rotational41%37 snaps
5Kendre MillerRB · Rotational29%26 snaps
43CJ DonaldsonRB · Situational17%15 snaps
82Treyton WelchTE · Situational11%10 snaps
19Barion BrownWR · Situational8%7 snaps
81Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
John RidgewayDTKhristian BoydDTCameron JordanOLBZach WilsonQBAlvin KamaraRBMason MurphyTOscar DelpTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
T.Shough pass−57% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 1:38 · Saints · 2nd & goal at DET 8 · gained 8 · +2.28 EP · −57.3% win probability
204 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 218 plays across 29 drives, manual charting on 212. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 89 yards from the DET 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
218 of 218 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
218
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
838
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
218 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
218 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 27
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 43
Saints0Lions6
Saints0Lions7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 42
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 38
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 38
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 26
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Lions 40
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 44
The period ended13 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Lions 42
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Saints0Lions13
Saints0Lions14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Saints 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 37
Saints0Lions20
Saints0Lions21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 19
Saints6Lions21
Saints7Lions21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Lions 7
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 25
Saints13Lions21
Saints14Lions21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Lions 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Lions 45
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Saints17Lions21
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Lions 10
Saints17Lions24
Field goal11 plays, from midfield to the Saints 1
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Saints23Lions24
Saints24Lions24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Lions 9
The period ended1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 44
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
No good7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Lions 44
Overtime27 plays
How the play was built
Under center, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints24Lions30
Saints24Lions31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Saints 4
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints30Lions31
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Lions 8
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -7
Closing total
49.5
Saints moneyline
+260
Lions moneyline
-325
Lions closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 61 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Saints 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Kellen Moore vs Dan Campbell
4th · 0:37
NO +13% win prob
(:37) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.
Overtime · 3:49NO +12% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 21, recovered by NO-3-T.Etienne at NO 23. 3-T.Etienne to NO 27 for 4 yards (98-D.Wonnum; 55-D.Barnes).
Saintscategory by categoryLions
Saints0
Lions6
