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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Ford Field
ScheduledThe market read · numbers on file today, not the close
The market read · numbers on file today, not the close
Lions are laid −7, and the book has the two of them scoring 49.5 points between them.
Spread
DET −7
the number, from the home side
Total
49.5
points, both clubs
2025 regular season · share of snaps
NO implied
21.3
spread and total, solved
DET implied
28.3
spread and total, solved
No-vig two-way, normalised in probability space rather than by averaging prices — the two American numbers are converted to implied probability and divided by their sum. The implied team totals above are arithmetic on the spread and the total, not a projection of anybody's score.
Note
the 2025 regular season · offence against defence, ranked in both directions
The widest disagreement on this board is staying on schedule, with the Saints holding the ball. The Saints offence ranked 24 of 32 among offences at keeping first and second down ahead of the chains; the Lions defence ranked 6 of 32 among defences at knocking an offence off schedule. That is 58 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the Lions’ way.
When the Saints have the ball
Tyler Shoughagainst
the Lions
projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026
Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offence ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.
Saints offence
41.9%
When the Lions have the ball
Jared Goffagainst
the Saints
projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026
Share of third downs that produced a first down. A conversion is read off the first-down flags rather than off the yardage, so a defensive holding that moves the sticks counts as the conversion it actually was — the yardage test would have filed it as a failure.
Note
the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Last season, labelled as last season
There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.
How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Saints
-3.0
17 of 32 · 1,061 plays
Lions
-4.6
25 of 32 · 1,050 plays
Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Saints
26.2%
9 of 32 · 130 fourth downs
Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Saints
31.5%
9 of 32 · 565 charted dropbacks
Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Saints
33.0%
28 of 32 · 176 possessions
Lions
44.4%
Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Saints
40.6%
17 of 32 · 180 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Offence
Defence
Special teams
Offence
Defence
Note
2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBSpencer Rattler | 8 | 91.8% | 0.9% | 15.7% | 6 | 12.4 |
| QBTyler Shough | 10 | 91.4% | 0.0% | 17.6% | 14 | 15.8 |
| WRChris Olave | 16 | 84.3% | 29.2% | 0.4% | 15 | 16.7 |
| TEJuwan Johnson | 17 | 75.0% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 8 | 10.6 |
| WRRashid Shaheed | 9 | 73.9% | 22.3% | 0.7% | 8 | 11.6 |
| WRBrandin Cooks | 9 | 66.7% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 1 | 3.9 |
| WRKevin Austin Jr. | 5 | 66.4% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 2 | 6.6 |
| WRMason Tipton | 5 | 66.0% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1 | 4.1 |
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBJared Goff | 17 | 98.5% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3 | 17.5 |
| TESam LaPorta | 9 | 90.7% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 6 | 11.9 |
| WRAmon-Ra St. Brown |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Sun, Sep 13, 2026.
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_01_NO_DET
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
24 of 32 · 805 early downs
Lions defence
41.2%
6 of 32 · 789 early downs
Week to week Saints's offence held its middle half of weeks between 36.2% and 46.0% over 17 weeks — 1.6 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself. Lions's defence held its own between 34.7% and 45.5% — 1.4 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Saints offence
7.3%
22 of 32 · 671 dropbacks
Lions defence
7.7%
6 of 32 · 640 dropbacks
Saints offence
−0.088
27 of 32 · 1,064 plays
Lions defence
−0.010
14 of 32 · 1,040 plays
Saints offence
39.6%
19 of 32 · 222 third downs
Lions defence
37.3%
9 of 32 · 212 third downs
Saints offence
3.6%
32 of 32 · 1,064 plays
Lions defence
6.5%
24 of 32 · 1,040 plays
Lions offence
39.0%
20 of 32 · 213 third downs
Saints defence
35.9%
5 of 32 · 209 third downs
Week to week Lions's offence held its middle half of weeks between 33.3% and 45.5% over 17 weeks — 1.0 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. Saints's defence held its own between 28.6% and 46.2% — 1.9 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Lions offence
6.3%
16 of 32 · 624 dropbacks
Saints defence
8.0%
5 of 32 · 565 dropbacks
Lions offence
7.6%
3 of 32 · 1,051 plays
Saints defence
5.3%
11 of 32 · 1,029 plays
Lions offence
46.0%
8 of 32 · 806 early downs
Saints defence
42.3%
14 of 32 · 784 early downs
Lions offence
+0.082
7 of 32 · 1,051 plays
Saints defence
−0.059
10 of 32 · 1,029 plays
Lions
26.7%
7 of 32 · 116 fourth downs
Lions
31.6%
8 of 32 · 640 charted dropbacks
8 of 32 · 187 possessions
Lions
40.1%
16 of 32 · 187 possessions defended
Special teams
| 16 |
| 90.2% |
| 33.4% |
| 0.7% |
| 36 |
| 20.2 |
| WRJameson Williams | 17 | 90.2% | 18.6% | 1.4% | 10 | 12.9 |
| RBJahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 67.0% | 16.2% | 55.8% | 67 | 21.6 |
| TEBrock Wright | 8 | 60.6% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 2 | 4.6 |
| TEAnthony Firkser | 5 | 48.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 3 | 2.7 |
| WRIsaac TeSlaa | 13 | 46.1% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 10 | 5.2 |
