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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q2 5:03 — 11.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 23–10. Biggest swing: Q2 5:03, Jets +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:03
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
19-J.Sanders kicks 55 yards from NYJ 35 to TEN 10. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). FUMBLES (41-M.McCrary-Ball), RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at TEN 38. ** Injury Update: TEN-17-C.Dike has returned to the game.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Titans at 2 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Jets at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
19-J.Sanders kicks 55 yards from NYJ 35 to TEN 10. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). FUMBLES (41-M.McCrary-Ball), RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at TEN 38. ** Injury Update: TEN-17-C.Dike has returned
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kenyon Sadiq's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 10:50 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryTitans
Jets ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 60 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Titans’s 49 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Titans 1.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 73.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-10.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.4 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 60 snaps
Titans4.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.1 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 87%
Tendencies room →Jets40.4%leaned — ran early · −12.3 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 47 early downs
Titans73.0%leaned — passed early · +16.4 vs their 56.5%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 43%
Tendencies room →Jets34.6%leaned — faked the run · +13.2 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Titans17.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -57% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Jets40.0%right on their number · +13.3 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±32.7 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Titans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −14.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 10% to 60%
Tendencies room →Jets28.2%leaned — sat back · −8.9 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans26.9%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 35%
Tendencies room →Jets15.4%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans3.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.6%, 13.2 points above their season mean of 21.4% and 1.6 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
19/24, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
19/32, 140 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.4 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenyon Sadiq banked 3.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 19.8 | +3.6 | 58% | — | 9% | 2% | 22 car, 102 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | +1.4 | 75% | — | 30% | 49% | 6/7, 79 yd |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 11.7 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/32, 140 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 21 yd |
| Kenyon SadiqTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.4 | +3.6 | 42% | — | 13% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 21 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 9.3 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/24, 215 yd · 6 car, 7 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +3.5 | 69% | — | 13% | 38% | 3/3, 60 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.8 | +0.5 | 82% | — | 21% | 14% | 5/6, 38 yd |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +1.5 | 52% | — | 11% | 25% | 1/3, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Carnell TateWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −1.2 | 88% | — | 21% | 41% | 4/6, 38 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −0.8 | 76% | — | 18% | 10% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 4.4 | −2.5 | 52% | — | 7% | 15% | 7 car, 35 yd · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 4.4 | −2.9 | 50% | — | 14% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 2/4, 12 yd |
| Omar Cooper Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +2.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Braelon AllenRB | 4.0 | −2.4 | 40% | — | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 40 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.9 | 66% | — | 13% | 1% | 2/3, -2 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 60% | — | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.4 | 28% | — | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 43% | — | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
19-J.Sanders kicks 55 yards from NYJ 35 to TEN 10. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). FUMBLES (41-M.McCrary-Ball), RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at TEN 38. ** Injury Update: TEN-17-C.Dike has returned to the game.
Q2 5:03 · Titans · Kickoff at NYJ 35 · gained nothing · -3.99 EP · −13.7% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 80 yards from the NYJ 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Seven rushed the passer, three of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets6
Titans0Jets7Titans0Jets7Titans3Jets10Titans3Jets16Titans3Jets17Titans3Jets20Titans3Jets23Titans3Jets23Titans9Jets23Titans10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 19/24 | 215 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Geno Smith |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 30% | +5.5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azareye'h Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 19/32 | 140 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_NYJ_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 33 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 7 |
| 1.2 |
| 0 |
| −5.3 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | +1.2 |
| 13% |
| +3.1 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4% | +3.6 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 13% | +0.5 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +1.2 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Mason Taylor | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 13% | −2.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Bailey | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcelino McCrary-Ball | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 21% | +0.3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 21% | +3.0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 18% | −0.9 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −2.0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 7% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 2 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Harris | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oluwafemi Oladejo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
