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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 10, 2026 · Melbourne Cricket Ground
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q2 4:35, 2nd and 6, on Demarcus Robinson — 12.4 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 27–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:35, 49ers +12.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:35 · 2nd and 6
Demarcus Robinson
49ers
(4:35) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Rams at 2 of 9 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.26 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(4:35) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Demarcus Robinson's 39-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Demarcus Robinson39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+710–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 64 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Rams’s 56 at 52%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Rams 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 1 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 4 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →49ers5.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.0 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±2.2 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 64 snaps
Rams-17.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −17.4 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 38% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers50.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 52 early downs
Rams47.7%leaned — ran early · −14.2 vs their 62.0%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 63%
Tendencies room →49ers22.2%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams17.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 102%
Fourth Down room →49ers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Rams75.0%leaned — went for it · +33.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±22.6 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 74%
Tendencies room →49ers13.8%leaned — sat back · −18.0 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams13.9%leaned — sat back · −17.5 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±16.6 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 39%
Tendencies room →49ers27.6%leaned — got home · +10.5 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams5.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
LA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.3 pts, 17.4 points below their season mean of 0.1 pts and 1.8 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
25/34, 205 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
4.8 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
Passing · LA
15/25, 155 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.6 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Demarcus Robinson banked 5.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 21.1 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 205 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 29 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Featured Receiver | 18.0 | +1.2 | 42% | — | 21% | 11% | 1 car, 12 yd · 6/7, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | +3.3 | 75% | — | 21% | 37% | 6/7, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyren WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 15.5 | +3.0 | 64% | — | 11% | 3% | 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 24 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | −3.6 | 55% | — | 24% | 0% | 10 car, 68 yd · 5/8, 20 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.0 | +5.2 | 63% | — | 9% | 30% | 2/3, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Puka NacuaWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.4 | −5.4 | 70% | — | 33% | 44% | 5/9, 74 yd |
| Kaelon BlackRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | +0.4 | 43% | — | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 65 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −3.1 | 54% | — | 22% | 28% | 3/6, 26 yd |
| Blake CorumRB | 5.4 | +0.6 | 23% | — | 0% | — | 10 car, 54 yd |
| Matthew StaffordQB · Starter QB | 4.1 | −9.8 | 84% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 155 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.9 | 71% | — | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Ronnie RiversRB | 3.4 | −1.7 | 13% | — | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 19 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −8.1 | 46% | — | 15% | 26% | 2/5, 12 yd |
| Davis AllenTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.8 | 34% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Jordan WhittingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 41% | — | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.4 | 77% | — | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Stetson BennettQB | 1.4 | −0.3 | 16% | — | 0% | — | 2/3, 13 yd · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Tyler HigbeeTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.7 | 20% | — | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Xavier SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Terrance FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 51% | — | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Konata MumpfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 26% | — | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:35) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:35 · 49ers · 2nd & 6 at LA 39 · gained 39 · +4.06 EP · +12.4% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 19 drives, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 99 yards from the SF 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers3
Rams0How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
49ers3Rams649ers3Rams7How the play was built
Under center, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
49ers9Rams749ers10Rams749ers16Rams749ers17Rams749ers23Rams749ers24Rams749ers27Rams7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Kaelon Black | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Brock Purdy |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 50 | 1 | 9% | +3.0 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marques Sigle | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/25 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Stetson Bennett | 2/3 | 13 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_SF_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 34 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 29 |
| 5.8 |
| 0 |
| +3.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +8.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 21% | +2.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 24% | −4.9 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 15% | −5.6 |
| Kaelon Black | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Jake Brendel | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Dugger | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Malik Mustapha | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Kyren Williams | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Stetson Bennett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 | 33% | −2.6 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 22% | −1.7 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | −4.7 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.3 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Lake | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobie Turner | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen McCollough | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josaiah Stewart | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Dolac | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
