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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q1 6:29, 3rd and 9, on Baker Mayfield — 16.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 33–27. Biggest swing: Q1 6:29, Bengals +16.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:29 · 3rd and 9
Baker Mayfield
Bengals
(6:29) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.04 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(6:29) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 y
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Demetrius Knight Jr.'s 27-yard touchdown with 6:29 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Demetrius Knight Jr.27-yd defense TD27-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+73–712 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 51 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bengals’s 62 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Bengals 5.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's play-action rate, 10.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers2.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +4.0 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 51 snaps
Bengals5.0 ptsright on their number · −0.4 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±1.8 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 94%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers65.9%leaned — passed early · +9.1 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bengals54.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 60.7%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 55%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers36.1%leaned — faked the run · +13.5 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bengals10.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −5.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 20.8%.
Bengals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers45.9%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 41.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bengals13.9%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers16.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bengals16.7%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
TB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 2.0 pts, 4.0 points above their season mean of -2.0 pts and 1.2 times their own 3.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
25/35, 254 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.6 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · TB
23/28, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.4 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bucky Irving banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 20.3 | +6.3 | 61% | — | 26% | 0% | 8 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 7/7, 48 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 18.8 | −1.5 | 72% | — | 18% | 0% | 16 car, 56 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 22 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Featured Receiver | 18.8 | +3.0 | 33% | — | 21% | 28% | 5/7, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 14.2 | −7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/35, 254 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 20 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 11.6 | −3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/28, 216 yd · 5 car, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | +0.1 | 86% | — | 22% | 64% | 5/6, 63 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | −3.3 | 72% | — | 18% | 52% | 3/6, 59 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +1.4 | 86% | — | 15% | 2% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/4, 40 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 8.0 | +1.0 | 28% | — | 9% | 1% | 5 car, 20 yd · 3/3, 30 yd |
| Ted Hurst IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +1.7 | 75% | — | 11% | 26% | 3/3, 36 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −3.3 | 98% | — | 19% | 24% | 3/5, 26 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | 0.0 | 66% | — | 9% | 0% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Dohnte MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.6 | 16% | — | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 18 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −4.6 | 94% | — | 12% | 15% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −3.9 | 61% | — | 9% | 7% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB | 2.8 | −0.9 | 46% | — | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Bauer SharpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.4 | −3.9 | 23% | — | 4% | 7% | 1 car, -4 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:29) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:29 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 9 at TB 33 · lost 7 · -6.57 EP · −19.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 80 yards from the CIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers3
Bengals0How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Buccaneers3Bengals6Buccaneers3Bengals7Buccaneers3Bengals13Buccaneers3Bengals14Buccaneers3Bengals20Buccaneers3Bengals21Buccaneers9Bengals21Buccaneers10Bengals21Buccaneers10Bengals24Buccaneers10Bengals27Buccaneers13Bengals27How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers19Bengals27Buccaneers20Bengals27Buccaneers20Bengals30Buccaneers20Bengals33Buccaneers26Bengals33Buccaneers27Bengals33Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Kenny Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 22% | +4.8 |
| Bucky Irving | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Trotter | 4 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_TB_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 60 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 15 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| −0.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 15% | +2.9 |
| Ted Hurst III | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 11% | +2.3 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 19% | −0.1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Alex Anzalone | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Morrison | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tykee Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keionte Scott | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Knowles | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 | −1.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 7 | 78 | 1 | 21% | +6.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 18% | +2.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +3.1 |
| Chase Brown | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 18% | −1.1 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 12% | −2.5 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −8.4 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Battle | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barrett Carter | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daxton Hill | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Davis | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DJ Turner II | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Swayze Bozeman | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
