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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 1
It turned at Q4 6:12, 3rd and 6, on Dallas Goedert — 16.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:12, Eagles +16.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:12 · 3rd and 6
Dallas Goedert
Eagles
(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Eagles at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 5 of 15 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dallas Goedert's 17-yard touchdown catch with 14:17 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Dallas Goedert17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+73–7
Antonio Williams1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jayden Daniels · two-point no good+622–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Commanders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 68 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Eagles’s 51 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Eagles 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 67 snaps
Eagles-5.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Commanders52.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 50 early downs
Eagles54.1%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 9% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders17.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −4.2 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Eagles18.2%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Commanders50.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 51.3%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 60%
Tendencies room →Commanders39.4%leaned — sat back · −6.2 vs their 45.6%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles23.1%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 22%
Tendencies room →Commanders15.2%inside their normal wobble · +1.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±2.7 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles5.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.0 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±3.7 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
PHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.1%, 5.0 points below their season mean of 10.1% and 1.4 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
14/25, 203 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
1.3 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
18/34, 164 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Receiving · PHI
2/4 for 73 yds, 1 TD
18% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 14.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 24.7 | +10.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 203 yd, 3 TD · 7 car, 46 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 23.7 | +14.3 | 95% | — | 23% | 24% | 4/5, 77 yd, 2 TD |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | −4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/34, 164 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 31 yd |
| Antonio WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +7.9 | 37% | — | 14% | 21% | 4/4, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | +1.3 | 63% | — | 31% | 32% | 4/9, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Featured Receiver | 15.3 | +6.6 | 91% | — | 18% | 37% | 2/4, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +1.6 | 49% | — | 3% | 0% | 16 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -7 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.0 | −2.1 | 71% | — | 9% | 0% | 15 car, 83 yd · 1/2, -3 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −2.1 | 95% | — | 27% | 37% | 3/6, 53 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 4.7 | −1.6 | 41% | — | 7% | 0% | 7 car, 22 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Chig OkonkwoTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −1.5 | 56% | — | 10% | 15% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −3.0 | 87% | — | 14% | 9% | 2/4, 14 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −3.5 | 49% | — | 10% | 2% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Makai LemonWR · Featured Receiver | 2.5 | −2.6 | 64% | — | 18% | 0% | 3/4, -5 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 2.2 | −0.3 | 18% | — | 5% | 3% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kaytron AllenRB | 1.6 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 26% | — | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.3 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 53% | — | 7% | 25% | 0/2, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q4 8:03 · Eagles · 3rd & 18 at PHI 31 · gained 22 · +2.72 EP · +15.6% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 24 drives, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 76 yards from the PHI 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders3
Eagles0How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Commanders3Eagles6Commanders3Eagles7Commanders3Eagles13Commanders3Eagles14Commanders9Eagles14Commanders9Eagles17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Commanders15Eagles17Commanders16Eagles17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Three rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders16Eagles23Commanders16Eagles24Commanders22Eagles24How the play was built
Shotgun, a trick play, a man in motion.
Three rushed the passer, six in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 18/34 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Rachaad White |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Williams | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 14% | +8.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 31% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_01_WAS_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 46 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 22 |
| 3.1 |
| 0 |
| −2.8 |
| Kaytron Allen | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| +3.8 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 14% | +2.0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonny Styles | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 77 | 2 | 23% | +8.3 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 73 | 1 | 18% | +3.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 27% | +0.8 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Makai Lemon | 3 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 18% | −3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Cooper | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moro Ojomo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
