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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on Cooper Rush — 14.5 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Panthers +14.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
Cooper Rush
Panthers
(15:00) 13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 5 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.68 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Falcons at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(15:00) 13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chuba Hubbard's 3-yard touchdown catch with 10:51 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Chuba Hubbard3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce YoungLead never changed again+77–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Falcons’s 67 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 6, Falcons 0.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers6.7 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their 4.8 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 59 snaps
Falcons-12.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 86%
Tendencies room →Panthers60.5%inside their normal wobble · −1.0 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±1.9 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 43 early downs
Falcons51.9%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 47.4%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 52%
Tendencies room →Panthers20.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 25.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons15.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Falcons33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers51.3%leaned — sent pressure · +14.2 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons25.6%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 29%
Tendencies room →Panthers15.4%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons15.4%inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
CAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 51.3%, 14.2 points above their season mean of 37.1% and 1.5 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
23/36, 287 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
11.1 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
10/17, 86 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.2 expected points added · -16.8% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
5/10 for 101 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Darren Waller banked 9.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 24.1 | −8.9 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 287 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.3 | +9.7 | 44% | — | 9% | 9% | 3/3, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.1 | −9.0 | 80% | — | 31% | 45% | 5/10, 101 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | −3.6 | 76% | — | 28% | 16% | 8/9, 66 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 14.4 | +1.9 | 65% | — | 6% | 0% | 12 car, 53 yd · 2/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 11.1 | −2.3 | 51% | — | 13% | 8% | 16 car, 72 yd · 3/4, 9 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +0.7 | 62% | — | 16% | 16% | 1 car, -2 yd · 4/5, 51 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | +0.2 | 48% | — | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 51 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +0.7 | 50% | — | 13% | 26% | 2/4, 64 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.1 | 43% | — | 13% | 9% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Zachariah BranchWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.6 | 20% | — | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −2.4 | 75% | — | 13% | 33% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −2.1 | 38% | — | 10% | 18% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.5 | 58% | — | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Jonathon BrooksRB | 2.1 | −3.5 | 30% | — | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 16 yd · 1/1, -5 yd |
| Chris BlairWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −3.2 | 49% | — | 10% | 16% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −2.7 | 56% | — | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −2.7 | 43% | — | 10% | 5% | 1/3, 3 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 49% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jack StrandQB | -0.0 | −5.0 | 42% | — | 0% | — | 8/15, 59 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 16 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | -0.3 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny PickettQB | -0.4 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | -0.6 | −6.4 | 58% | — | 0% | — | 10/17, 86 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 20 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) 13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 15:00 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 20 · gained 9 · -4.77 EP · −13.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 73 yards from the CAR 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Panthers6
Falcons0Panthers7Falcons0Panthers10Falcons0Panthers13Falcons0Panthers13Falcons3Panthers19Falcons3Panthers20Falcons3Panthers26Falcons3Panthers27Falcons3Panthers33Falcons3Panthers34Falcons3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 23/36 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +11.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Bryce Young |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 5 | 10 | 101 | 0 | 31% | +3.6 |
| Jalen Coker | 8 | 9 | 66 | 0 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Devin Lloyd | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Aaron Hall |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 10/17 | 86 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −12.2 |
| Jack Strand | 8/15 | 59 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_CAR_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| +1.7 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 13% | +3.1 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 9% | +5.6 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 6% | +4.6 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakee Wheatley | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Moon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lathan Ransom | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TeRah Edwards | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| −12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Jack Strand | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Drake London | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 16% | +3.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +1.2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −8.3 |
| Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −6.0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −4.5 |
| Chris Blair | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Watts | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Thomas | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sydney Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yasir Abdullah | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
