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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · Reliant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q2 3:37, 1st and 10, on Ja'Marr Chase — 16.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 20–6. Biggest swing: Q2 3:37, Bengals +16.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:37 · 1st and 10
Ja'Marr Chase
Bengals
(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.22 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.80 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bengals at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bengals won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ja'Marr Chase's 32-yard touchdown catch with 3:37 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Ja'Marr Chase32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 58 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Texans’s 76 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Texans 4.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate, 76.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 9.0 points clear of the next team along.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
CIN's blitz rate sent, 9.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 7.8 points clear of the next team along.
61 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.1% in week 1 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.1 pts in week 1 against +6.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals3.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −2.1 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±1.8 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 58 snaps
Texans6.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.0 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 76 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 94%
Tendencies room →Bengals53.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 60.7%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 43 early downs
Texans76.4%off script — passed early · +16.2 vs their 60.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 40%
Tendencies room →Bengals16.7%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans14.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.1 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Bengals0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
Texans60.0%leaned — went for it · +35.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 51%
Tendencies room →Bengals9.8%leaned — sat back · −7.5 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Texans19.4%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Bengals11.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Texans25.0%leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
HOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.4%, 16.2 points above their season mean of 60.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
30/55, 353 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.4 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
20/31, 207 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-0.5 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
Receiving · HOU
12/14 for 140 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ja'Marr Chase banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.5 | +10.0 | 88% | — | 29% | 47% | 7/9, 75 yd, 2 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Alpha Receiver | 26.0 | +5.6 | 68% | — | 28% | 23% | 12/14, 140 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 17.0 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/55, 353 yd · 3 car, 29 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | +5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 207 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.5 | −1.2 | 72% | — | 32% | 54% | 5/10, 95 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.2 | −4.8 | 70% | — | 16% | 0% | 20 car, 80 yd · 3/5, 2 yd |
| Woody MarksRB · Committee Back | 8.5 | −5.1 | 48% | — | 12% | 2% | 8 car, 8 yd · 5/6, 27 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −8.1 | 81% | — | 18% | 24% | 3/9, 37 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −2.8 | 72% | — | 10% | 14% | 3/5, 37 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.8 | 29% | — | 4% | 3% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −2.9 | 60% | — | 10% | 8% | 1 car, 13 yd · 1/5, 31 yd |
| Jared WayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −8.8 | 50% | — | 14% | 23% | 2/7, 33 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 4.4 | −1.4 | 52% | — | 4% | 2% | 6 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 3.2 | +1.3 | 40% | — | 3% | 4% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 16 yd |
| Erick AllTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −2.2 | 42% | — | 10% | 0% | 2/3, 5 yd |
| Colbie YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | 0.0 | 17% | — | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | 0.0 | 53% | — | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Dohnte MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 18% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| British BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to HOU 32 for 23 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: CIN-71-A.Mims has returned to the game.
Q2 4:21 · Bengals · 3rd & 4 at CIN 45 · gained 23 · +2.31 EP · +10.3% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 193 plays across 26 drives, manual charting on 188. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 81 yards from the CIN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals6
Texans0Bengals7Texans0Bengals7Texans3Bengals10Texans3Bengals16Texans3Bengals17Texans3Bengals17Texans6Bengals20Texans6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 5 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Joe Burrow |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 10 | 95 | 0 | 32% | +5.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 9 | 75 | 2 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 4 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daxton Hill | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jordan Battle |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 30/55 | 353 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −6.4 |
| Kai Kroeger | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_CIN_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 26 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| +3.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Colbie Young | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Erick All | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16% | −4.1 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| DJ Turner II | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Barrett Carter | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Johnson | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Dugger | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | −6.4 |
| Woody Marks | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | −6.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 12 | 14 | 140 | 0 | 28% | +7.5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 18% | −2.0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Jared Wayne | 2 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 14% | −4.5 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Woody Marks | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 12% | −0.1 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Hansen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Edwards | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
