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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q1 3:49, 3rd and 11, on Josh Palmer — 5.8 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 41–31. Biggest swing: Q1 3:49, Bills +5.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:49 · 3rd and 11
Josh Palmer
Bills
(3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Lions at 7 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:13 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Dalton Kincaid16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide left+67–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 62 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bills’s 66 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.43 expected points added per play vs 0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's play-action rate turned over: 21.2% in week 1 against 42.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-1.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.3 vs their 0.7 pts, and they swing ±2.4 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 62 snaps
Bills7.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.4 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 89%
Tendencies room →Lions67.3%inside their normal wobble · +10.4 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 49 early downs
Bills58.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 55%
Tendencies room →Lions29.5%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bills42.1%leaned — faked the run · +14.4 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.87× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 70%
Tendencies room →Lions55.3%leaned — sent pressure · +24.9 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bills31.8%inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 35.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Lions21.1%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bills22.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
BUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 42.1%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 1.9 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
26/38, 327 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
18.6 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
20/31, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
15.0 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
9/13 for 142 yds, 2 TD
34% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Allen banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 40.8 | +10.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 248 yd, 3 TD · 14 car, 69 yd, 2 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.2 | +10.3 | 95% | — | 34% | 44% | 9/13, 142 yd, 2 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 29.8 | +8.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 327 yd, 4 TD · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.3 | +1.4 | 83% | — | 21% | 10% | 16 car, 52 yd · 6/8, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.5 | +5.8 | 66% | — | 29% | 34% | 7/8, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 20.9 | −0.7 | 74% | — | 11% | 0% | 21 car, 135 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 4 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 17.2 | +3.5 | 98% | — | 18% | 7% | 6/7, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Keon ColemanWR · Featured Receiver | 12.3 | +1.8 | 74% | — | 21% | 19% | 6/6, 63 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.3 | +6.1 | 38% | — | 11% | 16% | 1/3, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +2.1 | 76% | — | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −5.0 | 49% | — | 21% | 29% | 3/6, 38 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.5 | 97% | — | 11% | 15% | 2/4, 33 yd |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −5.3 | 75% | — | 13% | 24% | 2/5, 26 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 3.0 | +1.5 | 17% | — | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keleki LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.0 | — | 14% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tom KennedyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tay MartinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DJ MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.1 | −0.9 | 31% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, -1 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 7 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].
Q1 3:49 · Bills · 3rd & 11 at DET 43 · gained 43 · +5.46 EP · +9.2% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions0
Bills6Lions0Bills7Lions0Bills13Lions0Bills14Lions0Bills20Lions0Bills21Lions6Bills21Lions7Bills21Lions7Bills27Lions10Bills27Lions16Bills27Lions17Bills27Lions17Bills33Lions17Bills34Lions23Bills34Lions24Bills34Lions24Bills40Lions24Bills41Lions30Bills41Lions31Bills41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +18.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Sione Vaki |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 13 | 142 | 2 | 34% | +10.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 6 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Clark | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_DET_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 72 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| 21% |
| +6.0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 18% | +5.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +1.8 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyleik Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 1 | +5.0 |
| Josh Allen | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 2 | +5.7 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 8 | 95 | 1 | 29% | +7.2 |
| Keon Coleman | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 21% | +5.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 11% | +4.8 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 21% | +0.5 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7% | +1.8 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Benford | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cole Bishop | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Hancock | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davison Igbinosun | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Rousseau | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
