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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Highmark Stadium
ScheduledThe market read · numbers on file today, not the close
The market read · numbers on file today, not the close
Bills are laid −3, and the book has the two of them scoring 52.5 points between them.
Spread
BUF −3
the number, from the home side
Total
52.5
points, both clubs
2025 regular season · share of snaps
DET implied
24.8
spread and total, solved
BUF implied
27.8
spread and total, solved
No-vig two-way, normalised in probability space rather than by averaging prices — the two American numbers are converted to implied probability and divided by their sum. The implied team totals above are arithmetic on the spread and the total, not a projection of anybody's score.
Note
the 2025 regular season · offence against defence, ranked in both directions
The widest disagreement on this board is hitting the chunk play, with the Bills holding the ball. The Bills offence ranked 5 of 32 among offences at breaking off twenty yards or more; the Lions defence ranked 24 of 32 among defences at keeping the ball in front of it. That is 61 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the Bills’ way.
Share of plays from scrimmage that gained twenty yards or more. The chunk play is how a drive happens without a drive happening, and it is the one dimension where a single snap can settle an afternoon.
Lions offence
7.6%
3 of 32 · 1,051 plays
Bills defence
Share of plays from scrimmage that gained twenty yards or more. The chunk play is how a drive happens without a drive happening, and it is the one dimension where a single snap can settle an afternoon.
Note
the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Last season, labelled as last season
There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.
How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Lions
-4.6
25 of 32 · 1,050 plays
Bills
-3.5
19 of 32 · 1,056 plays
Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Lions
26.7%
7 of 32 · 116 fourth downs
Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Lions
31.6%
8 of 32 · 640 charted dropbacks
Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Lions
44.4%
8 of 32 · 187 possessions
Bills
44.8%
Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Lions
40.1%
16 of 32 · 187 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Offence
Defence
Special teams
Offence
Defence
Note
2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBJared Goff | 17 | 98.5% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3 | 17.5 |
| TESam LaPorta | 9 | 90.7% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 6 | 11.9 |
| WRAmon-Ra St. Brown | 16 | 90.2% | 33.4% | 0.7% | 36 | 20.2 |
| WRJameson Williams | 17 | 90.2% | 18.6% | 1.4% | 10 | 12.9 |
| RBJahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 67.0% | 16.2% | 55.8% | 67 | 21.6 |
| TEBrock Wright | 8 | 60.6% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 2 | 4.6 |
| TEAnthony Firkser | 5 | 48.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 3 | 2.7 |
| WRIsaac TeSlaa | 13 | 46.1% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 10 | 5.2 |
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBJosh Allen | 16 | 97.9% | 0.0% | 22.8% | 33 | 22.8 |
| WRKeon Coleman | 12 | 66.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 12 | 8.5 |
| TEDawson Knox |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Thu, Sep 17, 2026.
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_02_DET_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
5.4%
12 of 32 · 950 plays
Week to week Lions's offence held its middle half of weeks between 5.7% and 9.7% over 17 weeks — 1.3 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself. Bills's defence held its own between 2.1% and 7.1% — 2.1 times the league's whole season spread — the season figure is a mean of afternoons that did not resemble each other.
Lions offence
+0.082
7 of 32 · 1,051 plays
Bills defence
−0.016
13 of 32 · 950 plays
Lions offence
39.0%
20 of 32 · 213 third downs
Bills defence
42.4%
24 of 32 · 203 third downs
Lions offence
6.3%
16 of 32 · 624 dropbacks
Bills defence
6.7%
14 of 32 · 535 dropbacks
Lions offence
46.0%
8 of 32 · 806 early downs
Bills defence
41.6%
8 of 32 · 722 early downs
Bills offence
7.2%
5 of 32 · 1,065 plays
Lions defence
6.5%
24 of 32 · 1,040 plays
Week to week Bills's offence held its middle half of weeks between 5.3% and 9.1% over 17 weeks — 1.3 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. Lions's defence held its own between 3.7% and 8.6% — 2.0 times the league's whole season spread — the season figure is a mean of afternoons that did not resemble each other.
Bills offence
6.7%
19 of 32 · 593 dropbacks
Lions defence
7.7%
6 of 32 · 640 dropbacks
Bills offence
+0.136
3 of 32 · 1,065 plays
Lions defence
−0.010
14 of 32 · 1,040 plays
Bills offence
46.3%
3 of 32 · 205 third downs
Lions defence
37.3%
9 of 32 · 212 third downs
Bills offence
48.6%
2 of 32 · 819 early downs
Lions defence
41.2%
6 of 32 · 789 early downs
Bills
31.7%
2 of 32 · 101 fourth downs
Bills
30.7%
11 of 32 · 535 charted dropbacks
7 of 32 · 174 possessions
Bills
37.3%
11 of 32 · 177 possessions defended
Special teams
| 15 |
| 62.2% |
| 11.3% |
| 0.0% |
| 12 |
| 6.2 |
| RBJames Cook | 16 | 60.6% | 8.7% | 61.5% | 59 | 18.8 |
| WRKhalil Shakir | 16 | 59.8% | 21.1% | 0.2% | 15 | 10.4 |
| WRJosh Palmer | 11 | 51.7% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 6 | 4.0 |
| TEJackson Hawes | 13 | 46.2% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 3 | 4.1 |
| WRTyrell Shavers | 11 | 41.6% | 7.7% | 0.0% | — | 4.1 |
