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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at OT 6:17, 2nd and 7, on Chris Brooks — 30.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:17, Packers +30.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:17 · 2nd and 7
Chris Brooks
Packers
(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
30.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 19 on third down, against Packers at 1 of 9 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Trey Smack's 26-yard field goal with 5:26 left in overtime put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Trey Smack26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+320–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Jets’s 71 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Jets 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's play-action rate, 3.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 9.8 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.2 pts in week 1 against +4.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.4% in week 1 against 60.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-3.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.4 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 50 snaps
Jets4.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.5 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 87%
Tendencies room →Packers55.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 60.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 40 early downs
Jets60.8%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 50%
Tendencies room →Packers3.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.6 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jets20.8%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -57% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.2%.
Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 70%
Tendencies room →Packers27.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jets28.1%leaned — sat back · −9.0 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 35%
Tendencies room →Packers16.7%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jets12.5%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.7 pts, 8.5 points above their season mean of -3.8 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
27/41, 247 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.3 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
Passing · GB
16/29, 145 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-3.2 expected points added · -13.6% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
6/12 for 63 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Garrett Wilson banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 16.7 | +4.6 | 88% | — | 19% | 29% | 5/7, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/41, 247 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 17 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | −0.4 | 65% | — | 14% | 0% | 16 car, 29 yd · 5/5, 63 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | −4.6 | 90% | — | 38% | 40% | 4/11, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/29, 145 yd, 2 TD |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −6.7 | 82% | — | 33% | 70% | 6/12, 63 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +1.7 | 82% | — | 17% | 1% | 1 car, 14 yd · 6/6, 34 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | +0.3 | 86% | — | 21% | 37% | 4/6, 58 yd |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 8.6 | +1.2 | 27% | — | 7% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 2/2, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Braelon AllenRB | 8.5 | +3.7 | 31% | — | 3% | 1% | 5 car, 7 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kenyon SadiqTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.5 | 36% | — | 8% | 3% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 3.6 | −1.4 | 46% | — | 7% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/2, 15 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.4 | 98% | — | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 3.2 | −0.4 | 27% | — | 0% | — | 8 car, 32 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.6 | 36% | — | 10% | 20% | 2/3, 6 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.4 | 34% | — | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 5 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| J. Michael SturdivantWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 15% | — | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
OT 6:17 · Packers · 2nd & 7 at GB 48 · gained 15 · +2.30 EP · +30.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 73 yards from the GB 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers6
Jets0Packers7Jets0Packers7Jets6Packers7Jets7Packers7Jets13Packers7Jets14Packers7Jets17Packers13Jets17Packers14Jets17Packers17Jets17How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers20Jets17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/29 | 145 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleb Johnson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Chris Brooks |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 21% | +1.3 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 11 | 41 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 5 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/41 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +4.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_GB_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 11 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| 38% |
| −3.8 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +1.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −1.5 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Keisean Nixon | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dani Dennis-Sutton | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Cisse | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Barryn Sorrell | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 0 | −7.0 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Braelon Allen | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 | −2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14% | +5.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 6 | 12 | 63 | 0 | 33% | +5.6 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 19% | +2.7 |
| Isaiah Williams | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 17% | −0.1 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braiden McGregor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Bailey | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
