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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q2 2:15, 3rd and 8, on Jourdan Lewis — 15.3 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:15, Jaguars +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:15 · 3rd and 8
Jourdan Lewis
Jaguars
(2:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(2:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jonah Coleman's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 7:24 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 55 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Broncos’s 56 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Broncos 5.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.5% in week 1 against 22.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 18.2% in week 1 against 25.8% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.2 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 41.7% in week 1 against 12.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.0% in week 1 against 9.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 6 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-7.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −3.4 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 55 snaps
Broncos-1.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +1.8 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±3.1 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 74%
Tendencies room →Jaguars53.5%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 43 early downs
Broncos50.0%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Jaguars12.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.4 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos25.8%leaned — faked the run · +4.1 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±3.2 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Broncos0.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 61%
Tendencies room →Jaguars41.9%inside their normal wobble · +9.4 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos22.6%leaned — sat back · −13.6 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Jaguars9.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos22.6%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
DEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 22.6%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 36.2% and 1.4 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
22/31, 288 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
8.4 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
17/29, 189 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.1 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
7/12 for 98 yds, 0 TD
43% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nate Adkins banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +3.8 | 61% | — | 34% | 57% | 8/10, 138 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.8 | −2.3 | 81% | — | 43% | 61% | 7/12, 98 yd |
| Jonah ColemanRB · Committee Back | 14.8 | +4.6 | 40% | — | 10% | 0% | 10 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 19 yd |
| Bhayshul TutenRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | −0.5 | 51% | — | 7% | 0% | 13 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, -3 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/31, 288 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 6 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +6.5 | 37% | — | 10% | 9% | 1 car, 6 yd · 3/3, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −4.2 | 54% | — | 29% | 28% | 3/8, 40 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 6.2 | −7.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 189 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −1.8 | 73% | — | 14% | 11% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB · Receiving Back | 4.9 | −0.3 | 26% | — | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/3, 28 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +2.3 | 90% | — | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 28 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −1.2 | 21% | — | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 27 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.2 | 83% | — | 7% | 6% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | 3.6 | −11.0 | 34% | — | 0% | — | 10 car, 36 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.7 | 52% | — | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 2.3 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.5 | 22% | — | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 66% | — | 3% | 2% | 1 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 1.3 | −3.1 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 13 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 1.2 | −0.2 | 13% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 0.0 | −3.8 | 15% | — | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh CameronWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:53) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:53 · Broncos · 2nd & goal at JAX 7 · gained 7 · +2.01 EP · +16.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 76 yards from the DEN 16 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars6
Broncos0Jaguars7Broncos0How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Jaguars7Broncos3How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Eight rushed the passer, four of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Jaguars10Broncos3Jaguars13Broncos3Jaguars13Broncos6How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Jaguars13Broncos12Jaguars13Broncos13How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Jaguars13Broncos19Jaguars13Broncos20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Ameer Abdullah |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 7 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 43% | −0.4 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 22/31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +8.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_JAX_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 33 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 11 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| 29% |
| −1.2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4% | +3.1 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 7% | −1.9 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| DaVon Hamilton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonah Coleman | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 | −0.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 10 | 138 | 0 | 34% | +8.7 |
| Nate Adkins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 10% | +3.7 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +0.0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14% | −2.5 |
| Jonah Coleman | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Pat Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Surtain II | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Que Robinson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Elliss | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riley Moss | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
