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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q4 2:03, 3rd and 8, on Juwan Johnson — 18.9 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:03, Saints +18.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:03 · 3rd and 8
Juwan Johnson
Saints
(2:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 64% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Ravens at 4 of 9 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(2:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Shough's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:32 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 55 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Ravens 3.
Ravens outgained Saints 312-301 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.2% in week 1 against 63.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.5% in week 1 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Saints0.1 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 63 snaps
Ravens3.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 90%
Tendencies room →Saints56.5%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 46 early downs
Ravens63.0%leaned — passed early · +13.2 vs their 49.9%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Saints15.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens32.4%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Saints50.0%right on their number · +7.5 vs their 42.5%, and they swing ±20.3 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 72%
Tendencies room →Saints37.8%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 36.4%, and they swing ±13.8 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens38.5%inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 30.5%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints13.5%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens10.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
BAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.0%, 13.2 points above their season mean of 49.9% and 1.3 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
27/34, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.9 expected points added · +14.1% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
21/31, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.3 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rashod Bateman banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.6 | +5.5 | 84% | — | 31% | 54% | 8/10, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 22.4 | −0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/34, 252 yd, 1 TD · 9 car, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +5.8 | 93% | — | 31% | 40% | 7/9, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.7 | +0.5 | 53% | — | 10% | 0% | 16 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 19 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 235 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 34 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | −1.6 | 96% | — | 22% | 36% | 5/7, 64 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −0.3 | 71% | — | 24% | 15% | 6/7, 49 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +3.9 | 53% | — | 13% | 6% | 4/4, 66 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −5.7 | 29% | — | 19% | 0% | 9 car, 15 yd · 5/6, 7 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB | 7.1 | −0.3 | 54% | — | 6% | 0% | 8 car, 25 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +2.0 | 29% | — | 7% | 19% | 1/2, 47 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.8 | −0.3 | 47% | — | 7% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.9 | 53% | — | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Bryce LanceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 79% | — | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Oscar DelpTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.1 | 13% | — | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −5.8 | 55% | — | 10% | 30% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | 29% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 55% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Barion BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5.
Q4 2:03 · Saints · 3rd & 8 at BAL 30 · gained 25 · +3.44 EP · +18.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Ravens6Saints0Ravens7Saints3Ravens7Saints3Ravens13Saints3Ravens14Saints6Ravens14Saints9Ravens14Saints9Ravens17How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints15Ravens17Saints17Ravens17How the play was built
Under center, empty backfield, a quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Saints23Ravens17Saints24Ravens17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 27/34 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Tyler Shough | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Alvin Kamara |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 10 | 86 | 1 | 31% | +6.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/31 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_NO_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 41 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 9 |
| 15 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| −3.8 |
| CJ Donaldson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +7.0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 22% | +5.4 |
| Oscar Delp | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Bryce Lance | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 19% | −3.5 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonas Sanker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 7 | 9 | 88 | 1 | 31% | +5.6 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 24% | +4.0 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +0.2 |
| LaJohntay Wester | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +0.0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zion Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
