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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 21, 2026 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q1 0:19, 2nd and 14, on Davante Adams — 9.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 28–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:19, Rams +9.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:19 · 2nd and 14
Davante Adams
Rams
(:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Giants at 1 chunk play.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.52 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Davante Adams's 31-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Davante Adams31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Rams’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Rams 5.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.6% in week 1 against 23.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
LA's play-action rate turned over: 17.2% in week 1 against 34.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: −17.3 pts in week 1 against +5.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-6.0 ptsright on their number · −0.7 vs their -5.3 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 55 snaps
Rams5.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 94%
Tendencies room →Giants56.4%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 39 early downs
Rams52.1%leaned — ran early · −9.9 vs their 62.0%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 45%
Tendencies room →Giants20.6%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams34.4%leaned — faked the run · +9.6 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 88%
Tendencies room →Giants34.4%right on their number · −7.1 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±18.0 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Rams47.1%inside their normal wobble · +15.7 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±16.6 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 32%
Tendencies room →Giants6.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Rams23.5%leaned — got home · +11.2 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
LA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.5%, 11.2 points above their season mean of 12.3% and 1.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
22/31, 327 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
18.6 expected points added · +7.3% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
11/27, 111 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.5 expected points added · -25.3% completion over expected
Receiving · LA
6/9 for 54 yds, 1 TD
30% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Davante Adams banked 18.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 39.5 | +18.3 | 65% | — | 33% | 60% | 8/10, 195 yd, 2 TD |
| Matthew StaffordQB · Starter QB | 27.0 | +8.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/31, 327 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, -1 yd |
| Terrance FergusonTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | +0.6 | 58% | — | 30% | 16% | 6/9, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyren WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 15.7 | +3.3 | 55% | — | 7% | 2% | 12 car, 85 yd · 2/2, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Blake CorumRB · Committee Back | 10.2 | +2.5 | 45% | — | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 79 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Cam SkatteboRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −2.3 | 59% | — | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 36 yd · 4/4, 19 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −6.1 | 69% | — | 31% | 14% | 5/10, 33 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +2.1 | 72% | — | 9% | 10% | 2/3, 48 yd |
| Malachi FieldsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −5.1 | 81% | — | 19% | 38% | 2/6, 30 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.2 | 71% | — | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Tutu AtwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.9 | 18% | — | 7% | 18% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 2.5 | −8.7 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 11/27, 111 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Konata MumpfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.3 | 69% | — | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Davis AllenTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 52% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Malik NabersWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −6.6 | 74% | — | 13% | 23% | 1/4, 1 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 0.9 | −2.0 | 26% | — | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 9 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaxson DartQB | 0.8 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Najee HarrisRB | 0.6 | −3.4 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 4 car, 6 yd |
| Xavier SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 42% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −8.0 | 28% | — | 13% | 16% | 0/4, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to NYG 14 for 64 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q2 12:50 · Rams · 3rd & 10 at LA 22 · gained 64 · +5.42 EP · +9.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Rams6Giants0Rams7Giants0Rams13Giants0Rams14Giants3Rams14Giants3Rams20Giants3Rams21Giants6Rams21Giants6Rams27Giants6Rams28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 11/27 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −16.5 |
| Jaxson Dart | 3/5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 9% | +3.5 |
| Isaiah Likely | 5 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 31% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Nubin | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arvell Reese |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/31 | 327 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +18.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_NYG_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 34 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| Najee Harris | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| −0.4 |
| Malachi Fields | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 19% | −5.1 |
| Cam Skattebo | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −1.8 |
| Malik Nabers | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13% | −7.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Theo Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −3.4 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Newsome II | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chauncey Golston | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Reader | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Barnes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdul Carter | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 85 | 7.1 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Blake Corum | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 10 | 195 | 2 | 33% | +11.8 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 6 | 9 | 54 | 1 | 30% | +1.8 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 7% | +2.3 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Xavier Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Byron Young | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Speights | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobie Turner | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kam Curl | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
