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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q4 0:14, 1st and 3, on Darius Cooper — 27.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:14, Eagles +27.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:14 · 1st and 3
Darius Cooper
Eagles
(:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 4 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 11 of 18 on third down, against Titans at 6 of 13 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Darius Cooper's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:14 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Darius Cooper3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+724–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 72 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Titans’s 51 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Titans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected, −20.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.0% in week 1 against 43.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.1% in week 1 against 12.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-10.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.5 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 72 snaps
Titans-20.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.1 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 87%
Tendencies room →Eagles49.1%inside their normal wobble · −9.0 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 53 early downs
Titans43.2%leaned — ran early · −13.3 vs their 56.5%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 43%
Tendencies room →Eagles19.0%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Titans29.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 63%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 51%
Tendencies room →Eagles20.8%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Titans21.4%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Eagles12.5%inside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±3.7 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Titans19.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.3 pts, 14.1 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
26/37, 264 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
8.8 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
13/20, 183 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.1 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected
Receiving · PHI
10/13 for 117 yds, 1 TD
38% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added
Receiving · PHI
5/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeVonta Smith banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.7 | +4.6 | 88% | — | 38% | 62% | 10/13, 117 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 20.0 | −0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/20, 183 yd · 4 car, 7 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/37, 264 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, 16 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +3.4 | 62% | — | 18% | 23% | 5/6, 74 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | +0.7 | 34% | — | 6% | 0% | 13 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +3.3 | 41% | — | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 9.0 | +2.9 | 36% | — | 12% | 1% | 7 car, 41 yd · 2/2, 29 yd |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.6 | 53% | — | 18% | 29% | 2/3, 69 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 7.5 | −3.9 | 55% | — | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 64 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Carnell TateWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.7 | −2.1 | 75% | — | 29% | 44% | 3/5, 27 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +1.9 | 62% | — | 12% | 24% | 2/2, 35 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 4.9 | −1.6 | 51% | — | 6% | 0% | 7 car, 24 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.4 | 87% | — | 12% | 0% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | 3.0 | −1.8 | 16% | — | 6% | 1% | 4 car, 9 yd · 1/2, 11 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.5 | 64% | — | 9% | 3% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Makai LemonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.6 | 63% | — | 3% | 4% | 1 car, -5 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.6 | 53% | — | 6% | 5% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.7 | 25% | — | 6% | 1% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 12 yd |
| Nicholas SingletonRB | 1.0 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 45% | — | 6% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:14 · Eagles · 1st & goal at TEN 3 · gained 3 · +2.25 EP · +37.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 17 drives, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 81 yards from the PHI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Eagles0
Titans6Eagles0Titans7Eagles6Titans7Eagles7Titans7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Eagles13Titans7Eagles14Titans7Eagles14Titans10Eagles17Titans10How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, eleven in the box.
From outside the pocket.
Eagles17Titans16Eagles17Titans17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
How the play was built
Under center, empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Eagles17Titans20How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles23Titans20Eagles24Titans20How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Seven rushed the passer, three of them blitzing, four in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 26/37 | 264 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Will Shipley | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Jalen Hurts |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 10 | 13 | 117 | 1 | 38% | +1.3 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jihaad Campbell | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Mukuba |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 13/20 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_PHI_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 16 |
| 3.2 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Makai Lemon | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| 18% |
| +11.1 |
| Darius Cooper | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 9% | +3.2 |
| Makai Lemon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −1.8 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moro Ojomo | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riq Woolen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Nicholas Singleton | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 2 | +4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 | 18% | +3.8 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 12% | +2.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 12% | +1.5 |
| Carnell Tate | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 29% | −3.5 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −0.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Robinson | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Harris | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
