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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q1 12:38, 2nd and 6, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 14.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:38, Seahawks +14.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:38 · 2nd and 6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seahawks
(12:38) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.60 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 1 chunk play.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(12:38) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 7-yard touchdown catch with 12:31 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Drew LockLead never changed again+714–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 67 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 47 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Cardinals 1.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-11.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.5 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 67 snaps
Cardinals5.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →Seahawks33.3%leaned — ran early · −17.3 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±13.5 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 51 early downs
Cardinals55.9%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 55%
Tendencies room →Seahawks29.6%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Cardinals12.9%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -72% to 149%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks100.0%leaned — went for it · +61.7 vs their 38.3%, and they swing ±43.3 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals16.7%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 51%
Tendencies room →Seahawks19.4%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cardinals25.9%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 35%
Tendencies room →Seahawks22.6%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cardinals11.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
SEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 61.7 points above their season mean of 38.3% and 1.4 times their own 43.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
19/26, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
16.1 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
17/28, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-8.1 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
9/11 for 155 yds, 3 TD
42% of team targets · 17.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 21.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 42.5 | +21.1 | 67% | — | 42% | 53% | 9/11, 155 yd, 3 TD |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 21.4 | +8.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/26, 235 yd, 3 TD |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.1 | +0.3 | 88% | — | 38% | 38% | 8/10, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Emanuel WilsonRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | −12.4 | 41% | — | 4% | 0% | 21 car, 92 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +3.2 | 80% | — | 4% | 4% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · Committee Back | 7.5 | −0.8 | 40% | — | 12% | 0% | 9 car, 29 yd · 3/3, 16 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | −4.5 | 56% | — | 23% | 30% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/6, 35 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 6.5 | −4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 95 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Jadarian PriceRB · Committee Back | 5.0 | −8.1 | 34% | — | 8% | 7% | 13 car, 52 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.9 | 43% | — | 8% | 6% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 3.9 | −0.5 | 64% | — | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.8 | −5.1 | 94% | — | 27% | 52% | 2/7, 18 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.6 | 60% | — | 12% | 10% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.2 | 21% | — | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 2.5 | −5.7 | 26% | — | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Bam KnightRB | 2.4 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 74% | — | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 24% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -10 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:38) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:38 · Seahawks · 2nd & 6 at SEA 18 · gained 82 · +6.91 EP · +19.6% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 86 yards from the SEA 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks6
Cardinals0Seahawks7Cardinals0How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks7Cardinals6Seahawks7Cardinals7How the play was built
Pistol, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Eight in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks13Cardinals7Seahawks14Cardinals7Seahawks17Cardinals7Seahawks23Cardinals7Seahawks24Cardinals7Seahawks30Cardinals7Seahawks31Cardinals7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 19/26 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +16.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Jadarian Price | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 | −7.5 |
| George Holani |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 9 | 11 | 155 | 3 | 42% | +17.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/28 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_SEA_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 38 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| +2.2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +2.5 |
| −1.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Jadarian Price | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| George Holani | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | -10 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rylie Mills | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| George Holani | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Finley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Neal | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Bam Knight | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 8 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 38% | +5.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 27% | −5.0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 12% | −1.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Gibbens | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mack Wilson | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Burch | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
