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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 2
It turned at Q2 0:03, 3rd and 1, on Jayden Daniels — 16.2 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, Cowboys +16.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:03 · 3rd and 1
Jayden Daniels
Cowboys
(:03) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [90-J.Bullard]. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at +0.16 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 1 giveaway.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 5 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Commanders at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(:03) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [90-J.Bullard]. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
CeeDee Lamb's 3-yard touchdown catch with 10:04 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
CeeDee Lamb3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 54 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Cowboys 5.
Commanders outgained Cowboys 389-332 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's pass rate over expected, +15.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 8.4 points clear of the next team along.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 13.9% in week 1 against 36.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
WAS's play-action rate turned over: 17.9% in week 1 against 26.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.5 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-5.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 67 snaps
Cowboys15.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.4 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.90× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 36% to 88%
Tendencies room →Commanders60.4%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 53 early downs
Cowboys62.8%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 66.7%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 43%
Tendencies room →Commanders26.2%leaned — faked the run · +4.0 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cowboys36.1%leaned — faked the run · +15.1 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.3%.
Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 59%
Tendencies room →Commanders47.2%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 45.6%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys26.2%leaned — sat back · −1.6 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±1.3 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 28%
Tendencies room →Commanders16.7%leaned — got home · +3.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±2.7 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys14.3%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
DAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.7 pts, 11.4 points above their season mean of 4.3 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
26/31, 279 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
15.1 expected points added · +18.0% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
11/16, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.7 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
CeeDee Lamb banked 14.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.3 | +14.1 | 75% | — | 29% | 56% | 8/9, 153 yd, 2 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 29.8 | +7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/31, 279 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 26 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.7 | +8.9 | 51% | — | 18% | 20% | 5/6, 47 yd, 2 TD |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 20.3 | +9.3 | 60% | — | 13% | 12% | 4/4, 43 yd, 2 TD |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | −5.0 | 55% | — | 0% | — | 11/17, 96 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 69 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 14.3 | +0.8 | 52% | — | 18% | 2% | 7 car, 43 yd · 6/6, 40 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −4.2 | 76% | — | 26% | 34% | 6/8, 40 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | +0.5 | 45% | — | 0% | — | 11/16, 111 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −6.9 | 80% | — | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 30 yd · 3/4, 20 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −2.1 | 76% | — | 19% | 3% | 5/6, 23 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −13.2 | 70% | — | 26% | 43% | 2/9, 50 yd |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | 5.8 | −1.4 | 37% | — | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 43 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Antonio WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −0.3 | 49% | — | 9% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd · 3/3, 24 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −8.4 | 55% | — | 18% | 13% | 1/1, 0 yd · 4/6, 21 yd |
| Kaytron AllenRB | 2.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.9 | 30% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 68% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 0.8 | −1.0 | 16% | — | 0% | — | 3 car, 8 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.1 | −0.2 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.9 | 30% | — | 3% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [90-J.Bullard]. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.
Q2 0:03 · Commanders · 3rd & goal at DAL 1 · gained nothing · -3.69 EP · −12.6% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 17 drives, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 83 yards from the DAL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Cowboys6Commanders0Cowboys7Commanders0Cowboys10Commanders3Cowboys10Commanders3Cowboys16Commanders3Cowboys17Commanders9Cowboys17Commanders10Cowboys17How the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, eleven in the box.
Thrown away.
Commanders13Cowboys17Commanders13Cowboys20How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Commanders13Cowboys26Commanders13Cowboys27Commanders13Cowboys30Commanders19Cowboys30Commanders20Cowboys30Commanders20Cowboys36Commanders20Cowboys37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 11/16 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6.7 |
| Jayden Daniels | 11/17 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Antonio Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Dyami Brown | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 26% | +1.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 6 | 47 | 2 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Chenal | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +15.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_02_WAS_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 57 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kaytron Allen | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| +5.6 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18% | +0.9 |
| Antonio Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Dyami Brown | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 18% | −5.6 |
| Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Cross | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 9 | 153 | 2 | 29% | +11.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 13% | +6.5 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 26% | +0.5 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 19% | +0.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Winters | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Downs | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaishawn Barham | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shavon Revel Jr. | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shemar James | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
