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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q1 8:40, 3rd and 12, on Mike Evans — 13.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 36–30. Biggest swing: Q1 8:40, 49ers +13.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:40 · 3rd and 12
Mike Evans
49ers
(8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 0 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.90 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.21 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.49 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at +0.17 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 1 giveaway.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 80-yard touchdown catch with 8:40 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Deebo Samuel Sr.80-yd TD catch80-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+70–7George Kittle10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock Purdy · kick no good, hit right upright+620–2912 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.90 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 80 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 49 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, 49ers 5.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 52.0% in week 2 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-0.4 ptsright on their number · +0.0 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 80 snaps
49ers5.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +2.2 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±2.2 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 78%
Tendencies room →Cardinals63.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 60 early downs
49ers51.2%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 63%
Tendencies room →Cardinals18.9%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
49ers14.3%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 25.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 61%
Tendencies room →Cardinals25.0%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers24.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cardinals10.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers9.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
SF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.2 pts, 2.2 points above their season mean of 2.9 pts and 1.0 times their own 2.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
15/27, 297 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.9 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
38/52, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.1 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
11/17 for 89 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brock Purdy banked 15.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 31.3 | +15.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 297 yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 34 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 26.2 | +11.6 | 85% | — | 27% | 19% | 6/7, 82 yd, 2 TD |
| Michael WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.9 | −7.0 | 93% | — | 34% | 50% | 11/17, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 25.6 | −7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 38/52, 280 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.9 | +0.6 | 64% | — | 10% | 3% | 21 car, 90 yd · 5/5, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.6 | +1.8 | 83% | — | 19% | 11% | 15 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 41 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | −2.2 | 91% | — | 22% | 18% | 9/11, 75 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 15.4 | +13.8 | 76% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 14 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 12.4 | +0.5 | 33% | — | 23% | 28% | 3/6, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +4.5 | 28% | — | 8% | 12% | 2/2, 60 yd |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −0.9 | 77% | — | 10% | 26% | 3/5, 40 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.5 | 40% | — | 6% | 2% | 3/3, 20 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 4.9 | −1.2 | 36% | — | 8% | 0% | 2 car, -1 yd · 4/4, 10 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.2 | 55% | — | 6% | 2% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Kaelon BlackRB | 1.7 | −2.3 | 15% | — | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 17 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 34% | — | 2% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Simi FehokoWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.0 | −4.5 | 56% | — | 8% | 5% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 33% | — | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.1 | 31% | — | 8% | 17% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 56% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:40 · 49ers · 3rd & 12 at SF 18 · gained 82 · +7.66 EP · +20.1% win probability
176 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 191 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 93 yards from the SF 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals0
49ers6Cardinals049ers7Cardinals049ers13Cardinals049ers14Cardinals349ers14Cardinals649ers14Cardinals649ers17Cardinals649ers23Cardinals1249ers23Cardinals1349ers23Cardinals1949ers23Cardinals2049ers23Cardinals2049ers29Cardinals2649ers29Cardinals2749ers29Cardinals2749ers35Cardinals2749ers36Cardinals3049ers36Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 38/52 | 280 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +10.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Tyler Allgeier |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 11 | 17 | 89 | 1 | 34% | +5.9 |
| Trey McBride | 9 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wingard | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/27 | 297 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +22.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_ARI_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 66 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| -1 |
| -0.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| +5.3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Elijah Higgins | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 5 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 10% | +0.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | −0.2 |
| Jalen Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Budda Baker | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaven Collins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Burke | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Wydett Williams Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Kaelon Black | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 7 | 82 | 2 | 27% | +10.2 |
| Jordan Watkins | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 8% | +4.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 19% | +2.4 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 23% | +9.5 |
| Kaelon Black | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Jacob Cowing | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 8 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garret Wallow | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marques Sigle | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalid Kareem | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
