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Atlanta Falcons 35 at Green Bay Packers 14. Final.
Packers -4.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2026 Week 3
Atlanta Falcons 35, Packers 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 10:02, 4th and 1, on Jordan Love — 11.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Packers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:02, Falcons +11.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:02 · 4th and 1
Jordan Love
Falcons
(10:02) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Xavier McKinneyPackersQ1 13:33(13:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 40. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (5-D.London).
11.3pts
Austin HooperFalconsQ2 1:02(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 65% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Packers at 4 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Packers at +0.01 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Falcons166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(10:02) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
Swing −11.5 for PackersExpected points −3.65 for PackersThe model had Falcons 9 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:02ATL +12% win prob(10:02) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
1st · 13:33ATL +11% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 40. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (5-D.London).
2nd · 1:02GB +10% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:47ATL +9% win prob(3:47) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-Z.Harrison), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
1st · 9:18GB +8% win prob(9:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards (21-M.Hughes).
1st · 3:06GB +8% win prob(3:06) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to GB 5 for 55 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
2nd · 4:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 44-yard field goal with 4:53 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:17Christian Watson·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+70–7
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Falcons: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.01Packers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Falcons: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Falcons: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.30Packers: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 65 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Packers’s 63 at 86%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Packers 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 10.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 2.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, +11.8 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 2.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 31.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.7% in week 2 against 3.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 15.4% in week 2 against 22.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +4.2 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Packers3.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 19.1 points above their season mean of 60.9% and 1.9 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Penix pass−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 40. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (5-D.London).
Q1 13:33 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at GB 49 · gained nothing · -4.89 EP · −10.9% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 92 yards from the ATL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
52%
Yards
828
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Intercepted5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Packers 49
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Falcons 49
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 27
Falcons0Packers6
Falcons0Packers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Falcons 4
Falcons6Packers7
Falcons7Packers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Packers 3
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Packers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 12
Falcons10Packers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Packers 26
No good6 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Falcons 28
Falcons16Packers7
Falcons17Packers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Packers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 41
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Falcons 7
Falcons23Packers7
Falcons24Packers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Packers 7
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Falcons 47
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons27Packers7
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Packers 13
Falcons27Packers13
Falcons27Packers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Falcons 15
Falcons33Packers14
Falcons35Packers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Packers 2
Intercepted14 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Falcons 10
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -4.5
Closing total
43.5
Falcons moneyline
+190
Packers moneyline
-230
Packers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 49 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Falcons 4 days · Packers 4 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Matt LaFleur
GB +7% win prob
(4:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at GB 33 - No Play.
3rd · 3:41GB +6% win prob(3:41) 71-J.Taylor reported in as eligible. 15-Br.Robinson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
