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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 1:55, 3rd and 10, on Harold Fannin Jr. — 21.8 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:55, Browns +21.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:55 · 3rd and 10
Harold Fannin Jr.
Browns
(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.
21.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Browns won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harold Fannin Jr.'s 14-yard touchdown catch with 1:55 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
John Metchie III8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · two-point no good+618–13
Harold Fannin Jr.14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Deshaun Watson · two-point goodLead never changed again+818–219 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBrowns
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Browns, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 74 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Browns’s 62 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Browns 3.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 51.3% in week 2 against 25.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 64.1% in week 2 against 55.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-0.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.7 vs their 4.8 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 73 snaps
Browns2.3 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 47% to 68%
Tendencies room →Panthers63.6%leaned — passed early · +2.1 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±1.9 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 55 early downs
Browns55.8%inside their normal wobble · −2.1 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 44%
Tendencies room →Panthers26.0%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 25.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Browns20.5%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 19.0%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Panthers50.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Browns50.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers25.6%leaned — sat back · −11.4 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Browns22.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 32%
Tendencies room →Panthers15.4%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Browns16.0%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
CAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.8 pts, 5.7 points below their season mean of 4.8 pts and 1.4 times their own 4.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
26/48, 291 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
16/30, 144 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.5 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Harold Fannin Jr. banked 8.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Alpha Receiver | 24.1 | +8.6 | 86% | — | 30% | 46% | 7/9, 51 yd, 2 TD |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 20.3 | −2.7 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 144 yd, 2 TD · 11 car, 45 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.0 | −0.2 | 84% | — | 10% | 0% | 19 car, 82 yd · 4/4, 28 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/48, 291 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +3.1 | 81% | — | 14% | 27% | 4/6, 83 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | −1.5 | 51% | — | 19% | 14% | 5/8, 51 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +0.8 | 56% | — | 12% | 10% | 2/5, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.9 | −1.3 | 51% | — | 7% | 0% | 18 car, 70 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Raheim SandersRB · Receiving Back | 9.1 | +1.6 | 43% | — | 17% | 2% | 1 car, 17 yd · 4/5, 34 yd |
| Denzel BostonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | −0.6 | 89% | — | 13% | 31% | 2/4, 41 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +0.6 | 48% | — | 10% | 6% | 3/4, 41 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +2.1 | 27% | — | 7% | 4% | 3/3, 36 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −3.2 | 36% | — | 10% | 20% | 2/4, 18 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −4.9 | 95% | — | 12% | 11% | 2/5, 17 yd |
| KC ConcepcionWR · Alpha Receiver | 2.9 | −10.1 | 86% | — | 30% | 22% | 2/9, 9 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | 2.4 | −0.9 | 16% | — | 2% | 0% | 4 car, 16 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Anthony Tyus IIIRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | 21% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Carsen RyanTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Shedeur SandersQB | 0.0 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.
Q4 1:55 · Browns · 3rd & 10 at CAR 14 · gained 14 · +3.40 EP · +22.6% win probability
180 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 193 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 188. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 72 yards from the CAR 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Browns3How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Panthers0Browns9Panthers0Browns10Panthers3Browns10Panthers6Browns10Panthers9Browns10How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Panthers12Browns10Panthers12Browns13Panthers18Browns13How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Panthers18Browns19Panthers18Browns21How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, four in the box.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 26/48 | 291 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 | −3.4 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brycen Tremayne | 4 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 14% | +5.0 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lathan Ransom | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Lee III | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrel Dodson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/30 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 1/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_CAR_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 39 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| −2.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 10% | +0.8 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 12% | +1.5 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 10% | −1.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 12% | −1.8 |
| David Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2% | −1.1 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zakee Wheatley | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lee Hunter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones II | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 7 | 9 | 51 | 2 | 30% | +7.2 |
| Denzel Boston | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Raheim Sanders | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| KC Concepcion | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 30% | −1.9 |
| Michael Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason Graham | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Schwesinger | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hall Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
