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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 0:53, 1st and 10, on Joe Burrow — 47.8 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:53, Steelers +47.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:53 · 1st and 10
Joe Burrow
Steelers
(:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
47.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 6 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 6 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Boswell's 33-yard field goal with 2:18 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Chris Boswell33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+327–3011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 56 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Steelers’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Steelers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals5.0 ptsright on their number · −0.4 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±1.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 56 snaps
Steelers4.1 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 94%
Tendencies room →Bengals69.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 60.7%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 42 early downs
Steelers61.4%inside their normal wobble · −1.8 vs their 63.2%, and they swing ±2.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bengals25.0%leaned — faked the run · +8.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers22.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Bengals40.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
Steelers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 55%
Tendencies room →Bengals19.4%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Steelers30.0%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Bengals22.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Steelers15.0%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
CIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 8.4 points above their season mean of 16.6% and 1.6 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
19/34, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
8.5 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
28/37, 282 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.7 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tee Higgins banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.8 | +4.1 | 100% | — | 32% | 38% | 9/12, 98 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 22.7 | +7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/34, 292 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 10 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 22.6 | +7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/37, 282 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 13 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Featured Receiver | 21.0 | +10.0 | 93% | — | 19% | 36% | 6/7, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.6 | +6.5 | 90% | — | 13% | 0% | 17 car, 127 yd · 3/4, 49 yd |
| Roman WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 15.0 | +6.6 | 39% | — | 19% | 32% | 3/6, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.7 | +6.4 | 51% | — | 8% | 12% | 3/3, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +1.4 | 95% | — | 16% | 23% | 3/5, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +3.7 | 76% | — | 13% | 5% | 3/4, 67 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +6.3 | 18% | — | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.9 | +0.5 | 70% | — | 5% | 0% | 13 car, 61 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Dohnte MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −0.7 | 56% | — | 14% | 7% | 3/5, 29 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.7 | 60% | — | 13% | 16% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/4, 30 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.9 | 73% | — | 16% | 13% | 2/5, 16 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.4 | 23% | — | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 2.4 | −3.5 | 32% | — | 8% | 2% | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/3, 5 yd |
| Germie BernardWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.8 | 27% | — | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Colbie YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −2.2 | 51% | — | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Lew Nichols IIIRB | 0.0 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kaden WetjenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
Q4 0:53 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at PIT 38 · lost 13 · -4.09 EP · −41.9% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 86 yards from the PIT 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Bengals0
Steelers6Bengals0Steelers7Bengals6Steelers7Bengals7Steelers7Bengals7Steelers13Bengals7Steelers14Bengals10Steelers14Bengals10Steelers17How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Bengals16Steelers17Bengals17Steelers17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals20Steelers17Bengals20Steelers23Bengals20Steelers24How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals26Steelers24Bengals27Steelers24How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Bengals27Steelers27How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Bengals27Steelers30How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/37 | 282 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +14.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Samaje Perine |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 12 | 98 | 1 | 32% | +9.3 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Barrett Carter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/34 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_CIN_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 57 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 9 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| +9.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 8% | +5.1 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 14% | +0.6 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −4.2 |
| Colbie Young | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Tacario Davis | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daxton Hill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cedric Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cashius Howell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 17 | 127 | 7.5 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Lew Nichols III | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 13% | +4.0 |
| Roman Wilson | 3 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 19% | +2.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 13% | +2.2 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 16% | +2.5 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | −0.6 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | −0.8 |
| Germie Bernard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yahya Black | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Sawyer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
