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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Highmark Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 11:15, 4th and 6, on Ty Johnson — 18.4 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 24–16. Biggest swing: Q4 11:15, Bills +18.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:15 · 4th and 6
Ty Johnson
Bills
(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 5 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Chargers at 6 of 15 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:37 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Bills 4.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.3 pts in week 2 against −12.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-3.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their -9.8 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 64 snaps
Bills-12.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.9 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 75%
Tendencies room →Chargers52.1%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 48 early downs
Bills41.7%leaned — ran early · −10.7 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 47%
Tendencies room →Chargers23.7%inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bills29.0%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Chargers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −12.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 14% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chargers22.6%leaned — sat back · −4.8 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bills28.9%leaned — sat back · −6.1 vs their 35.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 42%
Tendencies room →Chargers19.4%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bills21.1%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
BUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.0 pts, 9.9 points below their season mean of -2.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
20/34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.4 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-0.4 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Cook banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.4 | +4.6 | 67% | — | 4% | 0% | 24 car, 154 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | −6.1 | 100% | — | 4% | 0% | 16/26, 204 yd, 2 INT · 8 car, 22 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 13.7 | +1.6 | 38% | — | 9% | 0% | 8 car, 52 yd · 3/3, -5 yd, 1 TD |
| Tre HarrisWR · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | +1.8 | 58% | — | 21% | 20% | 6/7, 76 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −7.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/34, 226 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 17 yd |
| DJ MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.7 | −5.2 | 64% | — | 38% | 48% | 6/10, 67 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +1.4 | 88% | — | 15% | 26% | 4/5, 66 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 9.0 | +3.6 | 23% | — | 15% | 0% | 4/4, 50 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.0 | −2.8 | 87% | — | 18% | 23% | 3/6, 40 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | −1.2 | 45% | — | 12% | 13% | 3/4, 35 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −6.6 | 42% | — | 3% | 0% | 15 car, 56 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.8 | 48% | — | 8% | 24% | 1/2, 37 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.8 | 67% | — | 12% | 14% | 2/3, 38 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 3.0 | −1.2 | 25% | — | 9% | 7% | 1 car, 6 yd · 1/3, 14 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −3.3 | 73% | — | 12% | 4% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.4 | 70% | — | 4% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 38% | — | 4% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 57% | — | 9% | 10% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Hayden RucciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
Q4 11:15 · Bills · 4th & 6 at LAC 43 · gained 29 · +4.36 EP · +18.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers6
Bills0Chargers7Bills0How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers10Bills0Chargers10Bills3How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers10Bills9Chargers10Bills10How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers13Bills10How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Chargers13Bills16Chargers13Bills17Chargers13Bills23Chargers13Bills24Chargers16Bills24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Justin Herbert |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Harris | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 | 21% | +3.0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/26 | 204 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_LAC_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 40 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 17 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.6 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| +5.0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18% | +0.4 |
| Alec Ingold | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 12% | +1.1 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −2.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.8 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.3 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 3 | 3 | -5 | 1 | 9% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genesis Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Eboigbe | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| R.J. Mickens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Barrett | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 24 | 154 | 6.4 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 38% | −1.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 15% | +5.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 12% | −1.7 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 8% | +3.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12% | −0.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Josh Allen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| James Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Jackson Hawes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Williams | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Rousseau | 5 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davison Igbinosun | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dee Alford | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Jackson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeWayne Carter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deone Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
