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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 5:01, 3rd and 6, on Talanoa Hufanga — 53.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 30–26. Biggest swing: Q4 5:01, Broncos +53.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:01 · 3rd and 6
Talanoa Hufanga
Broncos
(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
53.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Rams at 8 of 17 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Bo Nix's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:48 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryBroncos
Rams ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 80 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Broncos’s 62 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Broncos 3.
Rams outgained Broncos 482-261 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Rams6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 80 snaps
Broncos-4.3 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±3.1 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 87%
Tendencies room →Rams69.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 62.0%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 62 early downs
Broncos55.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Rams22.4%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Broncos24.3%inside their normal wobble · +2.6 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±3.2 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
Broncos0.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 74%
Tendencies room →Rams21.6%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±16.6 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos41.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 35%
Tendencies room →Rams8.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos24.1%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's play-action rate, 24.3% against a season mean of 21.8% — and DEN swings 3.2 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
30/55, 390 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-0.7 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
17/34, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.1 expected points added · -11.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Pat Bryant banked 8.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 24.1 | −4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/34, 186 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyren WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.8 | +4.0 | 71% | — | 14% | 8% | 15 car, 88 yd · 6/7, 70 yd |
| Matthew StaffordQB · Starter QB | 20.9 | −2.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/55, 390 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 13 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | −0.7 | 83% | — | 27% | 44% | 7/13, 137 yd |
| Tyler HigbeeTE · Featured Receiver | 20.2 | +1.8 | 71% | — | 22% | 15% | 8/11, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Konata MumpfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.3 | +6.3 | 73% | — | 16% | 28% | 4/8, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +8.7 | 70% | — | 6% | 10% | 2/2, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| RJ HarveyRB · Receiving Back | 10.7 | −1.7 | 36% | — | 23% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 6/7, 41 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +1.8 | 34% | — | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −8.1 | 87% | — | 23% | 44% | 3/7, 46 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 6.4 | −5.4 | 73% | — | 23% | 43% | 1 car, 14 yd · 2/7, 10 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.3 | −6.7 | 49% | — | 6% | 0% | 17 car, 49 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Davis AllenTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.3 | 36% | — | 6% | 4% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Blake CorumRB | 3.5 | −5.3 | 29% | — | 8% | 0% | 6 car, 15 yd · 2/4, 0 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.6 | 18% | — | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 2.4 | +0.4 | 18% | — | 3% | 3% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Terrance FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.4 | 26% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 60% | — | 6% | 1% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Kolbe KatsisWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 43% | — | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Xavier SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dean ConnorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:01 · Rams · 3rd & 6 at DEN 38 · gained nothing · -9.32 EP · −52.6% win probability
189 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 202 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 197. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 77 yards from the LA 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
202 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
202 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams6
Broncos0Rams7Broncos0Rams10Broncos0Rams13Broncos0Rams16Broncos0Rams16Broncos6Rams16Broncos8How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Rams16Broncos14Rams16Broncos16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Rams19Broncos16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Rams19Broncos22Rams19Broncos23How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams25Broncos23Rams26Broncos23How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Under center, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Ten in the box.
Rams26Broncos29Rams26Broncos30How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/55 | 390 | 2 | 2 | 4 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Blake Corum | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Matthew Stafford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 137 | 0 | 27% | +5.0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 4 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Lake | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Omar Speights | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobie Turner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 17/34 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_LA_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 56 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 13 |
| 6.5 |
| 0 |
| +2.7 |
| 16% |
| +7.1 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 14% | −5.0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 8 | 11 | 62 | 1 | 22% | +1.9 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.3 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Poona Ford | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kam Curl | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ty Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Dolac | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Bo Nix | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 | +2.0 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 23% | −1.6 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 | 6% | +6.5 |
| RJ Harvey | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 23% | +0.2 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 23% | −2.9 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6% | +1.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Surtain II | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Que Robinson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Strnad | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonah Elliss | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
