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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Caesars Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 8:03, 3rd and 6, on Hezekiah Masses — 23.5 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 35–27. Biggest swing: Q4 8:03, Raiders +23.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:03 · 3rd and 6
Hezekiah Masses
Raiders
(8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4.
23.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 4 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered b
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cody White's 4-yard touchdown catch with 9:27 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Juwan Johnson2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyler Shough · kick blocked by T.Booker+63–6
Cody White4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · two-point no goodLead never changed again+628–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 63 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Saints’s 72 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 7, Saints 5.
Saints outgained Raiders 381-342 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders0.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +2.7 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±2.4 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 61 snaps
Saints0.2 ptsright on their number · +2.9 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 90%
Tendencies room →Raiders53.1%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 49 early downs
Saints58.9%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 37%
Tendencies room →Raiders17.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 22.9%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Saints17.8%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.7%.
Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 42.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 72%
Tendencies room →Raiders22.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Saints28.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 36.4%, and they swing ±13.8 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 35%
Tendencies room →Raiders17.8%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Saints15.4%inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
LV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 0.3 pts, 2.7 points above their season mean of -2.5 pts and 1.2 times their own 2.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
29/42, 255 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected
Passing · LV
22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
9.0 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Noah Fant banked 10.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock BowersTE · Alpha Receiver | 27.6 | +3.8 | 79% | — | 43% | 40% | 10/13, 116 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 23.8 | 0.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/42, 255 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 36 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 23.3 | +7.3 | 62% | — | 20% | 5% | 8/8, 53 yd, 2 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 22.2 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 248 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.7 | −5.6 | 84% | — | 33% | 44% | 9/13, 107 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 19.3 | +10.8 | 57% | — | 10% | 4% | 4/4, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.3 | −6.4 | 84% | — | 10% | 5% | 19 car, 56 yd · 3/3, 37 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +5.3 | 87% | — | 10% | 5% | 3/3, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike Washington Jr.RB | 11.4 | +9.1 | 16% | — | 0% | — | 5 car, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −4.2 | 38% | — | 5% | 0% | 13 car, 57 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +1.1 | 57% | — | 13% | 13% | 4/4, 43 yd |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +0.8 | 21% | — | 10% | 5% | 1/3, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −5.1 | 88% | — | 15% | 31% | 3/6, 39 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 5.1 | −0.4 | 32% | — | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB | 3.9 | −2.2 | 19% | — | 8% | 0% | 4 car, 14 yd · 2/3, 5 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −2.3 | 57% | — | 10% | 17% | 1/3, 16 yd |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 0.5 | −0.6 | 16% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 5 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malik BensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 27% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Bryce LanceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | 72% | — | 8% | 19% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Jalen CropperWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4.
Q4 8:03 · Saints · 3rd & 6 at NO 31 · gained nothing · -6.54 EP · −29.2% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 188 plays across 22 drives, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders3
Saints0Raiders3Saints6Raiders6Saints6Raiders12Saints6Raiders13Saints6Raiders13Saints12Raiders13Saints13Raiders16Saints13Raiders16Saints19Raiders16Saints20Raiders16Saints26Raiders16Saints27Raiders22Saints27How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Raiders28Saints27How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Raiders34Saints27Raiders35Saints27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/33 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 | −6.6 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Kirk Cousins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 10 | 13 | 116 | 1 | 43% | +8.6 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakobe Dean | 11 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Chinn |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 29/42 | 255 | 4 | 1 | 2 | −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_LV_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 62 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| +2.5 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 10% | +3.3 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +1.3 |
| Cody White | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Malik Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hezekiah Masses | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tonka Hemingway | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Koonce | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Stokes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Tyler Shough | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Kendre Miller | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| CJ Donaldson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 9 | 13 | 107 | 0 | 33% | +7.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | 8 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 20% | +1.9 |
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 15% | −0.1 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 33 | 2 | 10% | +4.7 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Bryce Lance | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −8.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khristian Boyd | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
