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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q2 4:17, 3rd and 8, on Jordan Addison — 15.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 23–16. Biggest swing: Q2 4:17, Vikings +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:17 · 3rd and 8
Jordan Addison
Vikings
(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 27% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.20 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jordan Addison's 41-yard touchdown catch with 4:17 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jordan Addison41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyler MurrayLead never changed again+717–109 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Vikings ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 64 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Buccaneers 3.
Buccaneers outgained Vikings 243-230 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 7 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-1.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their -4.0 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 55 snaps
Buccaneers-1.9 ptsright on their number · +0.1 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 80%
Tendencies room →Vikings50.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 45.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 38 early downs
Buccaneers62.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 55%
Tendencies room →Vikings26.5%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 30.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Buccaneers13.0%inside their normal wobble · −9.6 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Vikings33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
Buccaneers16.7%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±31.5 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 95%
Tendencies room →Vikings63.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 69.4%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers41.2%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 41.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 40%
Tendencies room →Vikings21.7%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers11.8%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TB's play-action rate, 13.0% against a season mean of 22.6% — and TB swings 12.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
17/34, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.9 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
15/29, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-12.1 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ted Hurst III banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan AddisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.0 | +4.3 | 98% | — | 36% | 65% | 5/9, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.2 | −2.5 | 80% | — | 24% | 0% | 17 car, 58 yd · 5/6, 34 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 11.3 | −0.8 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 17/34, 217 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.2 | −3.3 | 74% | — | 26% | 27% | 5/9, 62 yd |
| Ted Hurst IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +5.4 | 75% | — | 9% | 21% | 1/3, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/29, 168 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 17 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | −0.2 | 94% | — | 17% | 18% | 3/6, 56 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.8 | −5.2 | 52% | — | 11% | 4% | 15 car, 46 yd · 2/4, 12 yd |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −0.1 | 62% | — | 11% | 5% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.4 | 85% | — | 16% | 19% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 3.0 | −5.8 | 46% | — | 14% | 4% | 3 car, -4 yd · 2/5, 14 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.2 | 23% | — | 6% | 15% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.7 | 80% | — | 8% | 9% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | 15% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Demond ClaiborneRB | 0.1 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Max BredesonRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tai FeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 54% | — | 8% | 3% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 55% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bauer SharpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jalon DanielsQB | -1.1 | −3.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 9:00 · Buccaneers · 4th & 5 at TB 45 · gained nothing · -6.90 EP · −18.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 28 drives, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Buccaneers0Vikings9Buccaneers0Vikings10Buccaneers0How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings10Buccaneers6Vikings10Buccaneers7Vikings10Buccaneers10How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Vikings16Buccaneers10Vikings17Buccaneers10Vikings17Buccaneers13How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings17Buccaneers16How the play was built
Under center, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings20Buccaneers16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Vikings23Buccaneers16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 15/29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| DeeJay Dallas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 9 | 90 | 1 | 36% | +0.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Wilson | 6 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Blake Cashman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −10.9 |
| Jalon Daniels | 0/3 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_MIN_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 39 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Demond Claiborne | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −2.1 |
| −1.2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 16% | −1.2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −2.5 |
| Tai Felton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| James Pierre | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Ivan Pace Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dallas Turner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Jalon Daniels | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 26% | −0.5 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 17% | +3.5 |
| Ted Hurst III | 1 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 9% | +2.5 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 11% | −1.5 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −3.0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keionte Scott | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Anzalone | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Walker | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
