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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · EverBank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q1 3:58, 1st and 10, on Drake Maye — 16.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 35–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:58, Jaguars +16.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:58 · 1st and 10
Drake Maye
Jaguars
(3:58) 10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(3:58) 10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Cameron's 12-yard touchdown catch with 13:30 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Josh Cameron12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor LawrenceLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 59 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Jaguars 5.
Patriots outgained Jaguars 317-315 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.6 pts in week 2 against −7.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.9% in week 2 against 18.9% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-7.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.7 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 60 snaps
Jaguars-1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +1.9 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 37% to 72%
Tendencies room →Patriots56.5%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 46 early downs
Jaguars51.1%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Patriots18.9%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Jaguars25.8%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 61%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Jaguars0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 62%
Tendencies room →Patriots48.4%leaned — sent pressure · +12.2 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jaguars18.9%leaned — sat back · −13.6 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Patriots16.1%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 16.9%, and they swing ±3.6 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jaguars13.5%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.6 pts, 7.7 points below their season mean of 0.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-14.2 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
19/29, 182 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
7.6 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jakobi Meyers banked 5.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | +0.6 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 182 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 25 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.4 | +5.5 | 81% | — | 30% | 38% | 7/8, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Bhayshul TutenRB · Committee Back | 17.0 | +3.0 | 48% | — | 7% | 0% | 15 car, 73 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.7 | −1.3 | 76% | — | 30% | 35% | 6/9, 87 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | −0.4 | 81% | — | 19% | 30% | 3/5, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 9.7 | +4.4 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 8 car, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh CameronWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +4.2 | 37% | — | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +0.8 | 73% | — | 13% | 15% | 3/4, 49 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Receiving Back | 6.8 | −1.7 | 52% | — | 10% | 0% | 7 car, 22 yd · 3/3, 16 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Featured Receiver | 6.2 | −2.4 | 77% | — | 19% | 19% | 3/5, 32 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −5.1 | 59% | — | 17% | 30% | 1/5, 38 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.0 | 35% | — | 10% | 15% | 1/3, 34 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 3.9 | −1.2 | 37% | — | 3% | 1% | 8 car, 23 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 3.8 | −14.6 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 199 yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 18 yd |
| Corey KinerRB | 3.7 | −0.8 | 13% | — | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 2.9 | +0.4 | 18% | — | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 37% | — | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.3 | 25% | — | 7% | 1% | 1/1, 16 yd · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.8 | 70% | — | 7% | 4% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Tommy DeVitoQB | 1.4 | −2.0 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 3/5, 30 yd · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.2 | −3.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 45% | — | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:58) 10-D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
Q1 3:58 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at JAX 35 · lost 3 · -5.80 EP · −17.3% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Patriots0
Jaguars6Patriots0Jaguars7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
Patriots3Jaguars7Patriots3Jaguars13Patriots3Jaguars14Patriots3Jaguars20Patriots3Jaguars21Patriots3Jaguars27Patriots3Jaguars28Patriots6Jaguars28Patriots6Jaguars34Patriots6Jaguars35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/25 | 199 | 0 | 2 | 3 | −14.2 |
| Tommy DeVito | 3/5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Efton Chism III | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 6 | 9 | 87 | 0 | 30% | +5.0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Davis III | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 19/29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_NE_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3 and covered, winning by 29.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 41 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| Drake Maye | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Corey Kiner | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +3.1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 17% | −1.7 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 10% | −6.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Corey Kiner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7% | −4.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Charles Woods | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Jacas | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Christian Elliss | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Reed | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Ponder | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 30% | +8.3 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 19% | +4.6 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 19% | −4.8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Josh Cameron | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 7% | +1.6 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −1.5 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventrell Miller | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaVon Hamilton | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Caleb Ransaw | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
