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DYNATYZE
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Detroit Lions 31, Jets 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:11, 4th and 6, on Garrett Wilson — 22.2 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Lions closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Detroit Lions 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 4:11, Jets +22.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:11 · 4th and 6
Garrett Wilson
Jets
(4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
22.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Isaac TeSlaaLionsQ4 4:06(4:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to NYJ 16 for 49 yards (8-A.Cisco).
16.3pts
Jahmyr GibbsLionsQ4 2:30(2:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Jets158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and t
Swing −22.2 for LionsExpected points −4.66 for LionsThe model had Jets 4 points higher than the market did.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:11DET +22% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 4:06DET +16% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to NYJ 16 for 49 yards (8-A.Cisco).
4th · 2:30DET +16% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:40DET +10% win prob(5:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-K.Sadiq for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:51NYJ +10% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at DET 41 for -13 yards (36-C.Clark). FUMBLES (36-C.Clark) [36-C.Clark], RECOVERED by DET-46-J.Campbell at DET 45. 46-J.Campbell to NYJ 43 for 12 yards (0-B.Allen).
4th · 4:06DET +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 11-yard touchdown catch with 2:30 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd9:38Jake Bates·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+30–3
4th2:30Jahmyr Gibbs·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+724–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryLions
Jets1–7Lions
337Total yards383
5.3Yards per play6.2
46%Success rate60%
50%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays5
23First downs24
5Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Jets: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Jets: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.31Lions: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Lions’s 62 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's blitz rate sent turned over: 28.1% in week 2 against 47.2% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
DET's blitz rate sent turned over: 55.3% in week 2 against 21.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.6 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions13.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 52.7% and 1.4 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 4:11 · Jets · 4th & 6 at DET 23 · gained 23 · +4.66 EP · +20.1% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 80 yards from the DET 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
53%
Yards
718
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 40
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Jets 42
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 9 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 47
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Jets0Lions3
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Jets 10
How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets6Lions3
Jets7Lions3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Lions 22
Jets7Lions9
Jets7Lions10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Jets 4
The period ended12 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Lions 43
3rd quarter32 plays
Jets7Lions16
Jets7Lions17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Jets 17
Jets10Lions17
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Lions 7
The period ended14 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Jets 4
4th quarter50 plays
Jets10Lions23
Jets10Lions24
Touchdown2 plays
Jets16Lions24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Lions 4
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Jets 45
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets22Lions24
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Jets24Lions24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Lions 19
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets24Lions30
Jets24Lions31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Jets 11
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
The period ended10 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Lions 28
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
