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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 4:09, 2nd and 15, on Kain Medrano — 33.7 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:09, Commanders +33.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:09 · 2nd and 15
Kain Medrano
Commanders
(4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
33.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.27 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 22.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Drew Stevens's 36-yard field goal with 4:39 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Drew Stevens36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.OttLead never changed again+324–27Kain Medrano50-yd defense TD50-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick no good, wide left+624–3311 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryCommanders
Seahawks ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Commanders’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Commanders 4.
Seahawks outgained Commanders 437-260 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.8 pts in week 2 against +8.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 33.3% in week 2 against 68.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.5 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks8.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.2 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 64 snaps
Commanders0.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →Seahawks68.5%leaned — passed early · +17.9 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±13.5 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 54 early downs
Commanders49.0%leaned — ran early · −8.6 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Seahawks34.0%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Commanders25.7%leaned — faked the run · +3.5 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -72% to 149%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 38.3%.
Commanders20.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.3 vs their 51.3%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 59%
Tendencies room →Seahawks14.3%leaned — sat back · −7.0 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders51.1%leaned — sent pressure · +5.5 vs their 45.6%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Seahawks25.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders12.8%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±2.7 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
SEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.9 pts, 13.2 points above their season mean of -4.3 pts and 1.8 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
31/45, 379 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
4.1 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
19/31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
3.8 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
10/14 for 128 yds, 2 TD
31% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 8.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.4 | +8.7 | 87% | — | 31% | 52% | 1/1, 14 yd · 10/14, 128 yd, 2 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 27.7 | +5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/45, 379 yd, 4 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 20.4 | +7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 183 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 11 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.7 | +5.9 | 75% | — | 30% | 46% | 6/9, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.6 | +6.5 | 67% | — | 11% | 12% | 4/5, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| AJ BarnerTE · Featured Receiver | 11.9 | −4.3 | 91% | — | 20% | 3% | 5/9, 69 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 11.1 | +4.1 | 43% | — | 3% | 2% | 8 car, 35 yd · 1/1, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| George HolaniRB · Receiving Back | 10.8 | −0.1 | 36% | — | 11% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 5/5, 48 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +5.6 | 36% | — | 7% | 4% | 2/2, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +5.6 | 27% | — | 4% | 2% | 1/2, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.3 | 22% | — | 7% | 15% | 3/3, 48 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −1.9 | 59% | — | 23% | 14% | 4/7, 33 yd |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −4.7 | 57% | — | 3% | 2% | 19 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Antonio WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.7 | 41% | — | 13% | 22% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.5 | 46% | — | 7% | 5% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brady RussellRB | 3.0 | +1.6 | 18% | — | 2% | 4% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.6 | 54% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 1.4 | −8.2 | 36% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 14 yd |
| Jadarian PriceRB | 1.2 | −4.9 | 28% | — | 7% | 9% | 5 car, 15 yd · 1/3, 7 yd |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.1 | 46% | — | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 49% | — | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 30% | — | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Luke McCaffreyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 4:09 · Seahawks · 2nd & 15 at WAS 49 · gained nothing · -8.70 EP · −28.8% win probability
176 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 190 plays across 26 drives, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 90 yards from the SEA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Seahawks0
Commanders6Seahawks0Commanders7Seahawks6Commanders7Seahawks7Commanders7Seahawks7Commanders13Seahawks7Commanders14Seahawks10Commanders14Seahawks10Commanders17Seahawks10Commanders23Seahawks10Commanders24Seahawks16Commanders24Seahawks17Commanders24How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks23Commanders24Seahawks24Commanders24How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks24Commanders27How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Seahawks24Commanders33Seahawks30Commanders33Seahawks31Commanders33Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 31/45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 14 | 128 | 2 | 31% | +3.4 |
| AJ Barner | 5 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Thomas | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Murphy II |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/31 | 183 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_SEA_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 64 — over by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
| George Holani | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| −8.4 |
| George Holani | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 11% | +2.3 |
| Tory Horton | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7% | +3.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 11% | +3.6 |
| Brady Russell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 2% | +1.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −1.9 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 4% | +1.5 |
| Jadarian Price | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brady Russell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Finley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 19 | 36 | 1.9 | 0 | −7.2 |
| Rachaad White | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 9 | 77 | 1 | 30% | +5.2 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 23% | −1.0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Antonio Williams | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −1.6 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 7% | +2.1 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Colson Yankoff | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Reaves | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amik Robertson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Quan Martin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kain Medrano | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joshua Josephs | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonny Styles | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
