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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2026 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 3
It turned at Q4 0:24, 1st and 7, on Jevon Holland — 61.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 12–7. Biggest swing: Q4 0:24, Giants +61.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:24 · 1st and 7
Jevon Holland
Giants
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-3-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.
61.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Titans at 3 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 13 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-3-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dominic Zvada's 39-yard field goal with 6:37 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Dominic Zvada39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap B.MannLead never changed again+30–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryGiants
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Giants’s 57 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Giants 2.
Titans outgained Giants 262-239 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-14.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 57 snaps
Giants-17.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.1 vs their -5.3 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 94%
Tendencies room →Titans53.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 56.5%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 43 early downs
Giants34.1%leaned — ran early · −20.1 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 43%
Tendencies room →Titans25.0%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Giants26.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 63%
Fourth Down room →Titans25.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 87%
Tendencies room →Titans15.4%leaned — sat back · −7.6 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Giants27.8%inside their normal wobble · −13.7 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±18.0 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 33%
Tendencies room →Titans19.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Giants5.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
TEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 15.4%, 7.6 points below their season mean of 23.0% and 1.7 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
23/36, 181 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.5 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
14/22, 118 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.1 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
7/11 for 57 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Wan'Dale Robinson banked 3.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.7 | +3.5 | 63% | — | 31% | 27% | 7/11, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.6 | −1.4 | 53% | — | 11% | 1% | 17 car, 74 yd · 4/4, 22 yd |
| Cam SkatteboRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.0 | −4.8 | 77% | — | 19% | 29% | 20 car, 60 yd · 3/4, 40 yd |
| Carnell TateWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | −1.5 | 88% | — | 26% | 45% | 6/9, 58 yd |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 9.4 | −3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 181 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.6 | −0.7 | 78% | — | 29% | 4% | 5/6, 26 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 6.1 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 118 yd · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB | 5.2 | +0.5 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 52 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −0.5 | 44% | — | 14% | 26% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 20 yd |
| Malachi FieldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.1 | 69% | — | 10% | 9% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +1.0 | 40% | — | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −2.5 | 82% | — | 11% | 13% | 2/4, 14 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Featured Receiver | 3.3 | −3.7 | 84% | — | 24% | 18% | 2/5, 13 yd |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −3.4 | 80% | — | 9% | 10% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 0.5 | −1.1 | 47% | — | 0% | — | 3 car, 5 yd |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | 0.3 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 33% | — | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-3-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.
Q4 0:24 · Titans · 1st & goal at NYG 7 · gained nothing · -4.47 EP · −45.7% win probability
150 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 91 yards from the TEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Titans0
Giants3Titans0Giants6Titans0Giants9Titans0Giants12Titans6Giants12Titans7Giants12How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 23/36 | 181 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Cam Ward |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 26% | +1.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Simmons | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 14/22 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −6.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_03_TEN_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Giants closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 19 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| 31% |
| −0.2 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 11% | +0.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −1.9 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −4.1 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keldric Faulk | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Najee Harris | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 19% | +2.3 |
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 29% | −2.9 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 14% | +1.7 |
| Malachi Fields | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +0.5 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 24% | −1.1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arvell Reese | 10 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andru Phillips | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Colton Hood | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome II | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chauncey Golston | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
