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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:11, 4th and 4, on Deonte Banks — 21.9 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 36–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:11, Giants +21.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:11 · 4th and 4
Deonte Banks
Giants
(:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 12 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Theo Johnson's 11-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 3rd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Malachi Fields12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Jameis Winston · two-point no good+614–12Theo Johnson11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jameis Winston · two-point goodLead never changed again+824–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 63 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Giants’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Giants 4.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.7% in week 3 against 20.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-3.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 63 snaps
Giants-10.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -5.3 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 94%
Tendencies room →Cardinals56.0%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 50 early downs
Giants43.5%inside their normal wobble · −10.7 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 42%
Tendencies room →Cardinals15.4%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Giants14.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 61%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Giants0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 87%
Tendencies room →Cardinals26.5%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Giants53.8%inside their normal wobble · +12.4 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±18.0 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 28%
Tendencies room →Cardinals20.6%leaned — got home · +5.5 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Giants17.9%leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 17.9%, 8.0 points above their season mean of 9.9% and 1.2 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
18/29, 250 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
3.9 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
21/35, 166 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
-18.2 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
7/13 for 95 yds, 0 TD
37% of team targets · -9.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Malik Nabers banked 12.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik NabersWR · Featured Receiver | 23.2 | +12.0 | 76% | — | 24% | 34% | 6/7, 112 yd, 1 TD |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 18.0 | +4.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 250 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT |
| Michael WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.5 | −7.4 | 94% | — | 37% | 53% | 7/13, 95 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.6 | −4.9 | 66% | — | 41% | 34% | 7/12, 66 yd |
| Malachi FieldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +7.5 | 66% | — | 10% | 19% | 2/3, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 12.9 | +4.3 | 55% | — | 6% | 0% | 8 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −11.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 166 yd, 2 TD, 3 INT · 4 car, 18 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.1 | −8.0 | 97% | — | 34% | 30% | 7/12, 31 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +4.1 | 36% | — | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −2.0 | 65% | — | 11% | 18% | 1/4, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +4.7 | 33% | — | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam SkatteboRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.6 | −1.8 | 64% | — | 3% | 1% | 18 car, 58 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · Committee Back | 6.5 | −1.9 | 45% | — | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 63 yd · 1/1, -8 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB | 3.0 | −2.4 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 30 yd |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.3 | 30% | — | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 1.1 | −1.8 | 46% | — | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Simi FehokoWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 55% | — | 7% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 52% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | -0.1 | −0.6 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, -1 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Reese (93-S.Harris) at ARI 34. 52-A.Reese to ARI 26 for 8 yards (74-I.Adams).
Q2 3:15 · Cardinals · 3rd & 2 at ARI 35 · gained nothing · -4.74 EP · −21.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 76 yards from the NYG 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals6
Giants0Cardinals7Giants0Cardinals7Giants3Cardinals13Giants3Cardinals14Giants3Cardinals14Giants6How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Cardinals14Giants12How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Cardinals14Giants18Cardinals14Giants19Cardinals17Giants19How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals23Giants19Cardinals24Giants19How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Cardinals24Giants25Cardinals24Giants27How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Cardinals24Giants30How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals24Giants36Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/35 | 166 | 2 | 3 | 2 | −18.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 7 | 13 | 95 | 0 | 37% | −9.4 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 12 | 31 | 0 | 34% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/29 | 250 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_ARI_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 60 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 18 |
| 4.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.3 |
| −5.1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 11% | −1.4 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Budda Baker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Wydett Williams Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Skattebo | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Najee Harris | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 6 | 7 | 112 | 1 | 24% | +10.9 |
| Isaiah Likely | 7 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 41% | −3.9 |
| Malachi Fields | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 | 10% | +4.7 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Cam Skattebo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arvell Reese | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 8 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome II | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Tyler Nubin | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Abdul Carter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Okoye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trace Ford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
