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live · 12s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 1 h ago · 7 live · 5 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 5, 2026 · Caesars Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q1 2:52, 1st and 10, on Kendre Miller — 12.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 45–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:52, Falcons +12.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:52 · 1st and 10
Kendre Miller
Falcons
(2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.Henderson). FUMBLES (26-C.Henderson), RECOVERED by ATL-26-C.Henderson at NO 22.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.42 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.Henderso
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Bijan Robinson's 59-yard rushing touchdown with 13:43 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categorySaints
Falcons ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 54 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Saints’s 69 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 7, Saints 4.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 28.2% in week 3 against 61.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.8 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-8.0 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 54 snaps
Saints0.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 91%
Tendencies room →Falcons37.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.5 vs their 47.4%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 46 early downs
Saints70.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.7 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 52%
Tendencies room →Falcons38.1%leaned — faked the run · +15.1 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Saints21.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 94%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 42.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 72%
Tendencies room →Falcons27.5%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Saints61.9%leaned — sent pressure · +25.6 vs their 36.4%, and they swing ±13.8 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 27%
Tendencies room →Falcons21.6%leaned — got home · +3.5 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Saints4.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 61.9%, 25.6 points above their season mean of 36.4% and 1.8 times their own 13.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
30/48, 286 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.7 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
15/20, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.6 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brian Robinson banked 13.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 27.7 | +10.4 | 60% | — | 10% | 0% | 19 car, 145 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 25.7 | +13.7 | 42% | — | 5% | 0% | 14 car, 62 yd, 3 TD · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 22.8 | +6.8 | 38% | — | 15% | 3% | 7 car, 23 yd, 2 TD · 5/7, 35 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +0.7 | 86% | — | 26% | 37% | 8/12, 116 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Featured Receiver | 17.4 | +1.5 | 89% | — | 19% | 19% | 6/9, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 15.9 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/48, 286 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | +3.3 | 89% | — | 30% | 51% | 5/6, 96 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +5.9 | 63% | — | 15% | 48% | 2/3, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 12.7 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 223 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | −0.1 | 78% | — | 17% | 13% | 6/8, 59 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.9 | 51% | — | 15% | 6% | 3/3, 47 yd |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 4.3 | −0.2 | 38% | — | 4% | 1% | 3 car, 18 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Zachariah BranchWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.1 | 23% | — | 10% | 2% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 23% | — | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB | 1.9 | −5.0 | 26% | — | 6% | 1% | 6 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Bryce LanceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −5.7 | 85% | — | 11% | 23% | 1/5, 7 yd |
| Chris BlairWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 37% | — | 5% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 58% | — | 5% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Treyton WelchTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Oscar DelpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Barion BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.5 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:43) 7-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:43 · Falcons · 2nd & 1 at ATL 41 · gained 59 · +4.71 EP · +14.8% win probability
169 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 80 yards from the ATL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Falcons6
Saints0Falcons7Saints0How the play was built
Under center, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Falcons13Saints0Falcons14Saints0Falcons14Saints6Falcons14Saints7Falcons20Saints7Falcons21Saints7Falcons24Saints7Falcons24Saints10Falcons30Saints10Falcons31Saints10Falcons31Saints16Falcons31Saints17Falcons37Saints17Falcons38Saints17Falcons44Saints17Falcons45Saints17Falcons45Saints23Falcons45Saints24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 15/20 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 19 | 145 | 7.6 | 2 | +6.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 3 | +5.6 |
| Michael Penix Jr. |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 6 | 96 | 0 | 30% | +6.9 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Henderson | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harold Perkins Jr. | 7 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Watts |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 30/48 | 286 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_ATL_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 69 — over by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| -2 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| +3.6 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 15% | +3.7 |
| Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cameron Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendal Daniels | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Woods | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Blair | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcco Hellams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 2 | +3.1 |
| CJ Donaldson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Kendre Miller | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | −8.2 |
| Tyler Shough | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Barion Brown | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 12 | 116 | 0 | 26% | +7.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 17% | +2.2 |
| Devaughn Vele | 6 | 9 | 54 | 1 | 19% | +4.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 15% | −0.3 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Bryce Lance | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 11% | −4.8 |
| CJ Donaldson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Treyton Welch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Blackmon | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fadil Diggs | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Riley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khristian Boyd | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
