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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Reliant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 2:34, 3rd and 14, on Dalton Schultz — 22.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 34–30. Biggest swing: Q4 2:34, Texans +22.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:34 · 3rd and 14
Dalton Schultz
Texans
(2:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (53-D.Winters; 23-A.Speed).
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.17 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(2:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (53-D.Winters; 23-A.Speed).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
CeeDee Lamb's 12-yard touchdown catch with 0:43 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
CeeDee Lamb12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+734–3012 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryTexans
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Cowboys, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 73 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Texans’s 50 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Texans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys2.1 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 73 snaps
Texans-1.3 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 39% to 87%
Tendencies room →Cowboys62.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 66.7%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 58 early downs
Texans58.5%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 60.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 43%
Tendencies room →Cowboys22.0%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Texans33.3%leaned — faked the run · +11.4 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Texans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 51%
Tendencies room →Cowboys27.3%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±1.3 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans16.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Cowboys15.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans20.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
HOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 11.4 points above their season mean of 21.9% and 1.6 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
21/31, 347 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.2 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
32/45, 335 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nico Collins banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 41.3 | +3.8 | 86% | — | 49% | 59% | 1 car, -6 yd · 17/21, 189 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 31.3 | +4.7 | 74% | — | 12% | 0% | 19 car, 62 yd, 3 TD · 5/5, 21 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.8 | +12.8 | 69% | — | 31% | 35% | 7/8, 118 yd, 2 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 347 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/45, 335 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | +4.9 | 62% | — | 12% | 22% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/3, 85 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +3.1 | 86% | — | 7% | 27% | 2/3, 75 yd |
| Woody MarksRB | 8.2 | +3.0 | 44% | — | 4% | 5% | 6 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +0.7 | 74% | — | 12% | 2% | 4/5, 37 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −1.1 | 31% | — | 19% | 22% | 3/5, 46 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −0.5 | 62% | — | 15% | 15% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −1.3 | 56% | — | 0% | — | 10 car, 24 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −2.3 | 71% | — | 9% | 7% | 3/4, 11 yd |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.5 | 24% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.4 | 64% | — | 8% | 1% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 1.2 | −1.8 | 21% | — | 2% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 1.2 | +0.1 | 12% | — | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.3 | 36% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 10% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 18% | — | 5% | 6% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 40% | — | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:43 · Cowboys · 2nd & 10 at HOU 12 · gained 12 · +3.40 EP · +29.3% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 92 yards from the HOU 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys0
Texans6Cowboys0Texans7Cowboys3Texans7Cowboys3Texans10Cowboys6Texans10Cowboys6Texans13Cowboys6Texans16Cowboys12Texans16Cowboys13Texans16Cowboys13Texans22Cowboys13Texans23Cowboys19Texans23Cowboys20Texans23How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys26Texans23Cowboys27Texans23How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a trick play, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Cowboys27Texans29Cowboys27Texans30How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Cowboys33Texans30Cowboys34Texans30How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Two in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 32/45 | 335 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 3 | +2.8 |
| Tyler Goodson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Dak Prescott |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 17 | 21 | 189 | 1 | 49% | +13.6 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 3 | 75 | 0 | 7% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Downs | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dee Winters |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 21/31 | 347 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +15.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_DAL_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 64 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +3.9 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 12% | +3.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 12% | −1.8 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −1.1 |
| Tyler Goodson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Ezeiruaku | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Speed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Woody Marks | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 | −0.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 8 | 118 | 2 | 31% | +9.4 |
| Jaylin Noel | 3 | 3 | 85 | 0 | 12% | +4.7 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 19% | +2.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15% | +1.8 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +3.1 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hansen | 7 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Calen Bullock | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray, Jr. | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
