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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q3 9:52, 4th and 7 — 19.4 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 24–14. Biggest swing: Q3 9:52, 49ers +19.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:52 · 4th and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
49ers
(9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
19.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Broncos at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 1-yard touchdown catch with 4:22 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Deebo Samuel Sr.1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+73–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 65 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against 49ers’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, 49ers 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.2 pts in week 3 against −0.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 2.2 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.1% in week 3 against 12.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 9 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-4.5 ptsright on their number · −1.4 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±3.1 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 64 snaps
49ers-0.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −3.7 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±2.2 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 74%
Tendencies room →Broncos60.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 46 early downs
49ers57.4%leaned — passed early · +4.5 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 63%
Tendencies room →Broncos18.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −3.6 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±3.2 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
49ers12.1%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Broncos25.0%leaned — went for it · +15.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
49ers50.0%inside their normal wobble · +25.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 61%
Tendencies room →Broncos45.5%inside their normal wobble · +9.2 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers43.2%inside their normal wobble · +11.4 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Broncos12.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
SF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.7 pts, 3.7 points below their season mean of 2.9 pts and 1.7 times their own 2.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/30, 218 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.5 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
25/42, 214 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.7 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 19.6 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 218 yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 29 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Committee Back | 19.3 | +2.0 | 44% | — | 26% | 0% | 7 car, 25 yd · 10/10, 68 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Featured Receiver | 18.0 | +3.6 | 67% | — | 21% | 5% | 3 car, 44 yd · 5/6, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 17.0 | +7.3 | 91% | — | 21% | 16% | 4/6, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 16.0 | −7.6 | 74% | — | 17% | 6% | 15 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 18 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +5.2 | 68% | — | 16% | 16% | 5/6, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | +0.7 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 25/42, 214 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 10 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.6 | −4.3 | 59% | — | 28% | 55% | 5/8, 76 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 7.9 | +3.7 | 18% | — | 5% | 4% | 2 car, 7 yd · 2/2, 32 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +3.4 | 36% | — | 8% | 17% | 3/3, 47 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −1.0 | 32% | — | 5% | 2% | 11 car, 40 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 4.8 | +1.8 | 41% | — | 7% | 7% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.7 | 27% | — | 8% | 10% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −5.8 | 67% | — | 13% | 13% | 1/5, 6 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −8.0 | 73% | — | 16% | 52% | 1/6, 4 yd |
| Kaelon BlackRB | 1.3 | −1.7 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 13 yd |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −2.2 | 32% | — | 3% | 6% | 1 car, 2 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 45% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 12% | — | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
Q3 9:52 · 49ers · 4th & 7 at SF 11 · gained nothing · +6.48 EP · +20.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 74 yards from the SF 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Broncos3
49ers0How the play was built
Under center, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Broncos349ers3Broncos349ers9Broncos349ers10Broncos649ers10Broncos649ers16Broncos649ers17Broncos1249ers17Broncos1449ers17How the play was built
Shotgun, a screen, a man in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Broncos1449ers23Broncos1449ers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 25/42 | 214 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.3 |
| RJ Harvey | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Bo Nix | 2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 10 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 26% | +0.9 |
| Pat Bryant | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/30 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_DEN_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 38 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +2.8 |
| +5.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5% | +3.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.1 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 13% | −1.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16% | −2.5 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Surtain II | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Kaelon Black | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Jacob Cowing | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 28% | +2.4 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 21% | +4.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 21% | +2.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Jacob Cowing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upton Stout | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marques Sigle | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Gifford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Valdez | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
